Nate Silver had Hillary Clinton’s odds of beating Bernie Sanders in Michigan at 99%.
That now sounds laughable but I sympathize somewhat. I too expected Clinton would win, but with nowhere near Silver’s degree of confidence.
The reason? Michigan is one of the states hardest hit by an exodus of manufacturing jobs.
Donald Trump came out strongly in favor of tariffs, isolation, and walls.
Michigan spoke.
Like Trump and Sanders, Michigan sided with protectionism and isolation. That idea speaks volumes about the the remainder of the nomination process, and the election itself.
As I have stated for months, Silver desperately needs to update his thinking well beyond historical factors.
Florida provides a nice example, and one that is coming up.
Florida – March 6 – Nate Silver – Polls Only
Florida – Nate Silver – March 6 – Polls+
On March 6, there was a 20 percentage point difference between Silver’s forecast and what the polls said. Today Silver’s Polls+ number shows an 85% chance for Trump in Florida.
To be fair, there is a big number of new polls.
Yet, it also seems pretty clear Silver’s March 6 Polls+ number failed to take Michigan sympathies into consideration, Rubio’s miserable performances into consideration, and the surge of Cruz into consideration.
Silver sticks with a historic model best suited to one-on-one contests in normal elections.
The nomination process is not one-on-one, and this certainly is not a normal election.
Trump’s Clever Strategy
Instead of appealing to the base, Trump reached across partisan lines …
- To disenfranchised union workers
- To independents sick of war
- To those who blame migrant workers for stealing US citizen’s jobs
- To those sick of party politics
- To those tired of self-righteous religious zealots imposing their sense of morality on everyone else
- To those who distrust the Fed
- To those just fed up period!
Mish Analysis
- Trump appeals to all of the above while Ted Cruz only appeals to some of those in group 7.
- In regards to points 2 and 4, Cruz vs. Hillary is the epitome of Tweedledum vs. Tweedledee.
- In regards to point number 2, Trump is the clear choice. In regards to point 1, Trump is the clear choice. In regards to point 4, Trump is the clear choice.
- Hillary beats Cruz on points 1, 3, and 5.
On the above basis, I would expect Hillary to beat Cruz, but Trump to beat Hillary. That is precisely the opposite of mainstream Republican thinking.
This is not an endorsement of all of Trump’s policies. I am a staunch free-trade advocate. But even more so, I am an independent sick of war, and sick of the US meddling in other countries’ affairs.
That the Republican establishment has floated ideas about supporting Hillary over Trump says a lot about who really owns both parties: the industrial-military complex war machine.
If mainstream media would just stop and think, they would see the light. Don’t count on it. The military war machine plays mainstream media like a fiddle.
I originally said “Michigan results prove …”.
“Suggest” is a better way of phrasing things than “prove”.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
