The last possible chance for Ted Cruz to stop Donald Trump is the May 3 primary in Indiana.
Cruz is pulling out all the stops, but even if Cruz wins Indiana, he may still be too late.
The Wall Street Journal reports Ted Cruz Makes His Last Stand in Indiana.
Sen. Ted Cruz, in a last-ditch effort to derail Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump, is trying to marshal support from governors, former rivals and other anti-Trump Republicans in advance of the make-or-break primary in Indiana Tuesday.
With polls showing him lagging behind the New York businessman in the Hoosier state, the Texas senator talked up the somewhat equivocal support he received from Indiana Gov. Mike Pence on Friday.
Mr. Pence said on an Indianapolis talk-radio show that he would vote for Mr. Cruz because he is “a principled conservative who has dedicated his career to advocating the Reagan agenda.” But then, Mr. Pence added, “I particularly want to commend Donald Trump, who I think has given voice to the frustration of millions of working Americans.”
Earlier this week, Mr. Cruz tried to coordinate strategy with his other remaining GOP presidential rival, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and took the extraordinary step of naming Carly Fiorina as his running mate a day after he lost to Mr. Trump by a landslide in primaries in five Northeastern states on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Mr. Cruz’s onetime rival, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, this week repeated his call for Republicans to vote for Mr. Cruz.
To some Republicans, it was a week that amounted to a series of Hail Mary passes by a candidate running out of time. “Cruz is so desperate that he is throwing everything—including the kitchen sink and the Indiana Old Oaken Bucket—at Trump,” said Rick Hohlt, a GOP fundraiser who is moving toward supporting Mr. Trump, referring to a college football trophy.
Indiana Polls
Only the earliest poll that Has Cruz winning, and by an amazing percentage. It’s safe to discard that poll as complete nonsense.
Nate Silver did essentially that as noted by the weighting at 0.15.
The most recent poll has Trump as a 9 point favorite. Curiously, Nate Silver reduced Trump’s odds of winning following that poll.
Indiana Polls Plus
The only way that makes any sense is if Silver believes every poll is extremely heavily biased in favor of Trump and something else in is play (like a deal that fell apart the moment it was announced between Kasich and Cruz).
Indiana Polls Only
Even the Silver’s “Polls Only” results look silly, dropping Trump’s odds after the most recent, and highest rated poll.
Current Odds
- Polls Only: Trump 70%
- Polls Plus: Cruz 65%
I find that preposterous even if Cruz does manage to win Indiana.
Point May Be Moot
Trump scored so well in the Northeast, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, that he can win even if he loses Indiana.
Should Cruz win Indiana, he will need another Hail Mary pass in California.
For details, please see Does Trump Need Indiana? New York Times vs. Mish.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
