US Tax Receipts Signaling Recession?

by Mish

The last two times the survey plunged this much, the US was already in recession.

Is it different this time?

I like to credit my sources. I picked that chart up from Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

In turn, Sonders picked that up from Evercore ISI.

I added the recession bars and comments.

Each month, Evercore conducts a State Tax Receipts Survey across 16 states capturing 64% of the US population.

Although 2Q likely up vs 1Q, perhaps not as much as some are hoping as per tax receipts
Evercore ISI tax data pic.twitter.com/0f5IphfIfR

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 8, 2016

Unlike Sonders, I am not willing to state second GDP quarter will likely be up vs. first quarter.

Second Quarter GDP Estimates

1. New York Fed Nowcast June 3: 2.4% New York Fed Nowcast Up to 2.4% (I’ll Take “The Under”); Modeling Error on Unemployment Rate?
2. Atlanta Fed GDPNow June 1: 2.5%GDPNow Forecast Dips to 2.5% Following Construction Report
3. Markit June 3: 0.7% to 0.8%Composite PMI Flirts With Contraction; Markit Chief Economist Estimates GDP 0.7-0.8%
4. ISM June 3: 1.6%Non-Manufacturing ISM Much Weaker Than Expected

Manufacturing Productivity

For productivity discussion, please see Productivity Declines 0.6%, Labor Costs Rise 4.5%; What’s Going On?

Recession?

Many things are outright screaming recession.

I expect huge revisions on numerous fronts. And I am not the only one.

For revision discussion, please see BLS Says Jobs Openings Up; Actually, Openings Falling Fast!

Mike “Mish” Shedlock