The British Pound jumped the most in 11 months on the news Varadkar Says Brexit Deal is Possible.
Open Minds
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1182333988800798721
Deputy prime minister of Ireland Simon Coveney on the Brexit deadline
Having watched EU politics for years, I am not at all surprised by news Varadkar says new agreement ‘possible’ by end of October after talks with Johnson.
“For the first time in months, there is a more optimistic tone in tomorrow’s newspapers on the prospect of a deal being reached with the EU.”
This is very typical of EU politics as I have commented many times.
Despite the hardening language of just a day ago, after a meeting between Johnson and Varadkar, a deal is suddenly back in play.
What Happened?
Did Johnson give in on something? Yes, he had to. Giving the DUP a veto was never going to fly.
Anything more is difficult to say.
Did Ireland give in on something. That’s not certain, but it’s possible, if not likely.
What If?
If Johnson does produce a deal, it may come with a do or die proviso.
If so, there will be no further extensions.
Parliament will have to accept the deal or face a No Deal result on October 31.
Perhaps there is a short extension into November or even January 31, 2020 but only to tie up loose ends.
I suspect the UK parliament would agree to the deal on those conditions. If not, No Deal on October 31.
There is a small chance that the European Parliament rejects the deal after approved by the UK. The result would be the same: No Deal.
Odds?
I don’t know.
What did Johnson give away? The EU?
If there is a deal, we will find out shortly.
But here we are, discussing a deal that most thought “impossible”.
I never thought that, noting many last second EU deals, but it sure looked grim just a day ago.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The Irish border and the Irish were always the nut that couldn’t be cracked. No longer letting DUP take the process hostage is a good begin. If the Irish are pressured by the EU to agree to something instead of thinking about 3D chess reunification outcomes, the two hostage takers can be overcome, and some deal that everybody can live with can be reached.
All the complications of UK politics is a backdrop, and will not be decisive.
For some reason I can’t connect the Kinnock reference to read STEPHEN instead of Neil??
Cunning, cunning, cunning. Johnson gets a late “deal” against an EU background of take this one or leave it, no more extensions. Parliament is forced to accept, otherwise it’s a no deal Brexit. The Benn bill is completely neutralised.
Either way, we are out at the end of this month without Boris needing to pull any shenanigans.
My bet is that Labour will whip it’s MPs to reject, being instinctively and intellectually unable to accept a “tory” deal. But there may be enough Labour brexiteer MPs not due to stand again at the forthcoming election to ease it through, while sticking two fingers up to Corbyn.
Election follows, too late for Labour to get rid of Corbyn, LibDems pick up loads of votes from the distressed losers, thumping Tory majority.
The next Labour leader will be Neil Kinnock, who will have to start on the same path to sorting out the party that his dad did in 1985. You heard it here first.
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This quite likely is just a continuation of the blame-shifting game. No-one wants to be seen as standing around, smoking cigarettes while the patient dies on the table. There are rumors of Johnson reviving the May Withdrawal Agreement with sub-minor changes, throw it on the table again, if it doesn’t pass, the potato is passed from his hands.
Hehehe, give it up Mish!
Although I’m totally sympathetic with the wish for the UK to leave the EUSSR, I’m afraid that Brexit ain’t gonna happen.
There are simply too many vested interests to maintain the status quo, and BoJo is (just like Trump) someone who talks a lot, but lacks a structural plan to achieve his aims.
I’ve long since ceased to understand anything that’s going on with Brexit so all I can say I hope this isn’t a false dawn and its not something that is going to tie the UK too closely to the EU. I’m hoping to see something that allows the UK to sign FTA’s and aligns the UK within the anglosphere.
Let me just describe the whole situation with Brexit extention in plain terms.
Btw, a curious parlament session will be held on Oct 19. I expect at least 2 votes – elections, referendum. Both rejected and followed by hard Brexit (if no deal.)
Except that the Court of Sessions has said that if there is no deal by 19/10 and if the liar does not ask for an extension then that court will issue a writ of Nobile Officium. The effect of this is that the request for extension will be signed and delivered at the behest of the Scots court. So many bullet points, so much wasted effort.
I know I argue with Mish a lot but on on many things we agree. One such point of agreement is his insistence that Brexit is and should be reported more. It is important. To all those who seem to think that it is something that is happening far far away and will not have huge effects for the world economy I say that you are missing the point. Over the long term I believe that the City of London will wither on the vine. It will become a shadow of itself. The Brexiteers have admitted that British Industry and Agriculture
will collapse immediately in the event of no deal. No British presence in the formulation of EU laws and regulations will mean that the EU will become an even more Franco-German construct and as time goes on EU regulations will become more and more important for world trade. For those who say that the EU will collapse, and more importantly those who pray for the EU to collapse, I say be careful what you wish for, If the EU collapses then so do all other economies in the world.
Sorry I should have included this in the above. Mish encourages discussion. People all over the world contribute to this site, this is good because there is no one place, or person, or political view that has all the answers. Mish also makes it civilised, too many sites have degenerated into a yah boo sucks mentality that generates
nothing of worth.
Let’s assume you are correct is Benn’s Bill does what you think it does – forces Uk Gov to extend.
If this is the case, then Benn’s Bill directly contradicts EU law which it cannot do due to EU law superiority. Specifically:
The contracdiction is that Benn’s Bill removes the option of leaving EU without agreement which is allowed in Article 50.
Great post (on great blog):
RE: “Benn’s Bill requires Prime Minister to do what it asks to do. But does it mean it achieves what it wants ? Actually, no. Just because doing what Benn’s Bill asks has nothing to do with what UK Gov is needed to do to have the proper extention requested and apporved. In other words, that letter is not really request of UK Gov, but rather a person, Prime Minister acting in non-government capacity!”
Could you kindly explain how that works? Is it a matter of a document to be signed approved by Cabinet and Queen or what?
Seems to me that if you are right – and you sound basically right – that they are going to have to overthrow the Govt on the 19th and put an interim one in somehow, one which has prorogative power to negotiate an extension. Otherwise, if BJ stays in, UK is out on Oct 31.
I think krage’s point is that Benn Act instructs Boris (or PM) to send letter and ask for extension. He might do this and, no doubt, EU will grant one. That then has to be approved by Parliament. That happens when Government introduce a motion to accept the extension and Parliament votes on it.
Note that it is the Government that introduces the motion (not PM). If the Government doesn’t introduce the motion then it can’t be voted on and extension doesn’t happen. Boris could comply with Benn Act and yet still no extension.
There would probably be lots of court cases but probably only way for Remainers would be Vote of No Confidence, install Corbyn as Chief Gardener and introduce extension vote. Very risky if Boris refuses to leave No 10.
You make the only point that really matters- to change the default position requires the Remain faction to replace the Johnson government and/or revoke Article 50- everything else is just jaw movement.
I dont think No Confidence would work anymore – it is just too late. I dont really have the math, but there was a leak that UK Gov will advise Her Majesty NOT to replace Boris in case of no confidence vote, also other public which leads to conclusion that Boris will stay till the end of Oct.
You are up against the finest legal brains in the UK why are you bothering? THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS THE BENN BILL, THERE IS AN ACT OF PARLIAMENT COMMONLY KNOWN AS THE BENN ACT, more properly known as the EUROPEAN WITHDRAWAL ACT ( No 2). If you don’t use the correct terminology how can anyone take you seriously? If yoy don’t know the first thing about how laws are formulated and enacted in the UK why do you persist in this tosh.
I don’t write for foreigners
I write about what I think is important globally, but sometimes, what I find interesting.
If I was after clicks I would write about Trump every day. I happen to think that Brexit is important and collectively, the EU is nearly as big as the US.
I am pleased to have a global readership.
The title of this blog used to be Global Economic Analysis Not US economic analysis
People are free to find other sites more to their liking.
As far as I understand economy is rather global. Thanks for many views that would have otherwise escaped my attention.
Hi Mish,
For the benefit of one from Down Under, would you apply your knowledge of UK law to comment on Krage’s arguments?
Thanks for all the interesting discussion, and civil discussion. There is a great deal of value here.
For a writer that doesn’t write for foreigners you do a very good job of attracting a foreign readership. I’m in NZ and have been reading you for more than a year because you are rational, objective, and cover many issues from a point of view ignored by the mainstream. But then, as I am a kiwi who worries about US and UK issues maybe I’m in the minority.