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Fed Says “Banking System is Sound”, Hikes Base Interest Rate by a Quarter Point.

FOMC Q&A from February 2023

Federal Reserve Press Release

 Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have picked up in recent months and are running at a robust pace; the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. 

Summation

  • 25 Basis Point Hike to 4-3/4 to 5 percent.
  • No direct mention of bank failures
  • No mention of bond market volatility
  • Reaffirms QT commitment to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. 
  • Mentions policy lag of past tightening
  • Emphasizes that it is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective

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25 Comments
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Oldest Most Voted
shamrock
shamrock
3 years ago
Yellen did a 180 from her statement yesterday where she said all bank deposits are insured. Yellen yesterday “prepared to extend unlimited deposit insurance to other banks” ;
Yellen today – “I have not considered or discussed anything having to do with blanket insurance or guarantees of more deposits.”
She keeps pulling bottom cards from the house and hopes it doesn’t collapse, total moron.
whirlaway
whirlaway
3 years ago
So, the Fed will screw the average guy with rate hikes, while printing money at the same time to bail out the capitalist bankster pricks – again. Is anyone surprised by this?
JRM
JRM
3 years ago
Only “IDIOTS” would believe that the FED would admit there is a “PROBLEM”!!!
They would say “EVERYTHING IS FINE” even in the midst of a collapse!!!
MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
Food shortages will crimp food supply, and then cause prices to increase.
In this case, does the Fed hike to suppress demand and fight inflation?
My point is that current inflation isn’t strictly demand, a lot of it is supply, Russia/oil, housing/labor shortages and food also has a lot to do with labor.
The Fed made the right call today, specifically in mentioning policy latency and waiting.
.
JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
I am highly protective of my anonymity, so I’ll only say that I have a history of engagement with the Fed. I have a pretty good idea of how they work. The only reason that I watched Powell today is that I feel that we’re at a crossroads, and wanted to see if he’s really as bad as I thought. The answer is that nothing surprised me. Yep, he’s that bad, but I wanted to be sure to listen. It was hard to avoid throwing a rock at the TV, but I managed if only because it’s a 150-mile roundtrip to Costco to replace it.

I understand that Yellen also gave a press conference. I might go find the video on YouTube. But I might not, because I’m not fond of recreational vomiting. Holy smokes, what a crew. LOL

FromBrussels2
FromBrussels2
3 years ago
Reply to  JackWebb
so Jack , enlighten us , what should the fed have done ? A 5% , like I suggested in my previous comment ?
FromBrussels2
FromBrussels2
3 years ago
Reply to  JackWebb
…and Jack, do trust us, your anonymity is safe with us…
JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels2
Anonymity is a personal policy, and won’t change. The Fed should have kept tightening after ’18; shouldn’t have gone nuts during covid; should have begun tightening sooner that mid-’22. Today, they should have hiked by 50 bp and made clear that they’ll keep going in the same magnitude until the dragon has been slayed. Today’s 25 bp is a joke, and Powell’s statement and press conference was nothing short of utterly pathetic.
FromBrussels2
FromBrussels2
3 years ago
Reply to  JackWebb
You are absolutely right , I misread your previous comment … I am sorry
FromBrussels2
FromBrussels2
3 years ago
….a 5 % increase would ve been the right thing to do ! …. if only for their own credibility and to prop up the US dollar…. Go figure , the Empire of Lies and Eternal Wars’ reserve currency(for the time being) is even losing ground vs the Euro, the currency of a US’ deluded vasal association, strictly forbidden to team up with its neighbour, armtwisted into waging war against a friendly reliable resources rich but also culture rich, Russia merely wanting to protect its legitimate sphere of influence from a increasingly agressive NATO (Nazi Adhering Terrorist Organisation) 100% controlled by The Empire, the crumbling, self destructive empire that is, …..
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
3 years ago
“rate cuts not in our base case” (this year) Jay’s final words.
Hanging Tough. Good.
JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
Where was your /s ?
JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
I truly hope he knows he’s lying, because if he actually believes his b.s. that’d be much scarier.
Eighthman
Eighthman
3 years ago
I don’t see that bank failures encourage inflation. A bank fails and a ‘balloon ‘ deflates. A bigger bank or the Fed take over the bank and saves depositors – and the ‘balloon’ re-inflates. All that’s been done is to change ownership.
And interest on the national debt? Just ‘print’ more money and cover it. As long as deficits are 2% or less, I would think that the US can go along indefinitely with 2% inflation. Of course, keeping the deficit at 2% or less may be difficult politically.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
They may continue QT, but their balance sheet will keep growing.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Possibly. But expansion won’t be in a good way. It means banks are tapping facilities despite punitive rate and stigma.
Credit tightening.
Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
3 years ago
Interest is the price of credit. The price of money is the reciprocal of the price level. Inside money determines the price level. We’ll know if Powell eased next Tuesday when the FED releases the money supply figures.
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
3 years ago
Their 2% objective? Oh, that magical number that will fix everything, and they’ve never even come close to achieving.
Expect a lot of consolidation across the economic spectrum. At the rate they’re going, everything will be made by ACME by the end of the year. And work about as well as it did for a certain coyote.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
3 years ago
Elizabeth Warren having a meltdown, somewhere.
Go Jay!
JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
She needs a plate of fry bread, followed by Ye Olde Peace Pipe.
Columbo
Columbo
3 years ago
Translation, expect another 1/4% raise next time. They have been consistently raising the rates as they said they would, I will give them that.
WarpartySerf
WarpartySerf
3 years ago
Reply to  Columbo
“I will give them that.”
Not me – Volcker’s Fed Funds rate was 16% in 1982, when faced with true (non-Chinese) inflation of 15%. That’s what it takes – 16% Fed rates in face of the exact same inflation we face today (15%). So where is Arthur Burns Powell with 15% true “little people” inflation? He’s servicing his banker friends at 5% Fed Funds rate. At least 10 % below the inflation we’re facing. So you’re waiting for 40 consecutive .25 raises at each meeting ?
Columbo
Columbo
3 years ago
Reply to  WarpartySerf
I get your point, too kill the true inflation rate you think the feds are doing too little. But, the Fed has slowed the increases to 1/4% increments and my interpretation of the minutes is for another 1/4% raise. I’m thinking the rates will plateau soon as they say, but I’m unsure if the economy is going to be able to handle it. Look what’s happening to some of the banks at the magnitude of the recent interest rate increases. Will have to see what happens.
JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  WarpartySerf
BINGO on steroids, in neon. Bravo!
Nuddernoitall
Nuddernoitall
3 years ago
Part 1:
The FED press release is relatively benign.
Part 2:
Will Powell’s upcoming “words of wisdom,” be as benign?

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