Parliament is back in session Tuesday, September 3. Remainers and some Tory rebels want legislation demanding Johnson request yet another delay from the EU.
However, Johnson gave a speech today vowing not to seek another Brexit extension under any circumstances. And he won’t. No one can force him. Until he gives the “Queen’s Speech” such moves by Parliament are not binding.
He scheduled the Queen’s Speech for October 14 as noted in Boris Johnson’s Deviously Clever Brexit Strategy Unfolds
With the Queen’s Approval, parliament will be suspended from September 9 through October 14.
Should the rebels side with Labour, Johnson will strip the rebels of Tory party membership and call for an election on October 14.
An October 14 election would give time to an incoming prime minister to seek an extension. Of course, that presumes Johnson would lose. Polls suggest Johnson will win, perhaps by a landslide.
Johnson’s Speech
That was an excellent speech. Key Snip
If there is one thing that can hold us back in these talks it is the sense in Brussels that MPs may find some way to cancel the referendum. Or that tomorrow MPs will vote – with Jeremy Corbyn – for yet another pointless delay. I don’t think they will. I hope that they won’t.
But if they do they will plainly chop the legs out from under the UK position and make any further negotiation absolutely impossible.
And so I say, to show our friends in Brussels that we are united in our purpose, MPs should vote with the government against Corbyn’s pointless delay.
I want everybody to know – there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay. We are leaving on 31 October, no ifs or buts.
Fantasyland Proposal
Hillary Benn, the Shadow (opposition) Brexit Secretary put out a laughable series of eight Tweets regarding a bill he concocted that is supposed to stop a no deal brexit.
Then bill demands the Prime Minister must send a letter to the President of the European Council requesting an Article 50 extension until January 31, 2020.
As noted above the notion is preposterous for many reasons, the most import of which is that the bill is not legally binding.
Johnson’s Positioning
Putting Corbyn to the Test
Earlier today Corbyn said he wants a general election after legislation blocking no-deal gets passed. Such legislation will of course be totally useless.
Since the Fixed-Terms Act requires 2/3 majority, Labour votes will be needed for an early election to happen.
Corbyn Cornered
Putting Benn to the Test
How Many Rebels Are There?
Guardian Live Blog Closing Summary
- The prime minister will seek to hold a general election on 14 October if Parliament votes to hand control of the legislative timetable to the opposition on Tuesday, a government source said. Boris Johnson claimed Brussels would not engage until the possibility of legislation blocking a no-deal Brexit or a reversal of the whole process was removed and called for MPs to back him.
- He sought to ramp up the pressure on those Tory MPs minded not to do so as the Commons prepares to debate legislation designed to prevent a no-deal Brexit. MPs were left in no doubt that Tuesday’s vote would be treated as a confidence vote by No 10 and the consequences for voting against Downing Street would be withdrawal of the whip. The work and pensions secretary, Amber Rudd, was one of those who urged Johnson not to go down that road.
- In an address outside Downing Street, Johnson indicated he would refuse to ask Brussels for a delay to Brexit, even if a law was passed requiring him to do so. Johnson said there were “no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay. We are leaving on 31 October – no ifs or buts”.
Removing the Whip
Point number two is the critical one.
Party members voting against Johnson will be removed from the party.
UK Election Polls
UK Polling Trends
Ever since Johnson insisted he would deliver Brexit, Tory polling numbers soared.
Best Outcome for Johnson
The best outcome for Johnson would be for Hammond and all the Remainers to be outed then for Johnson to win in a landslide.
I suspect, when push comes to shove only a few Tory rebels will be willing to fall on their sword. And if Johnson calls for elections on October 14, it will be very difficult for Corbyn to block the elections keeping Johnson in power.
Potential Johnson Landslide
The problem for the opposition is the Liberal Democrats want to Remain while Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn wants a customs union or a vote on another referendum (depending on what strikes his mood at the moment).
In a first-past-the-post system (UK and US), where the winner is the one who gets the most votes as opposed to a proportional system such as Germany, Johnson might win with a huge landslide.
The chart shows that Brexit party members started returning home mid-July. That trend is likely to continue as long as Johnson stays firm on delivering Brexit.
One never knows how an election would turn out, but if the polls are believable, Johnson has to really put the screws to Labour and the rebel Tories.
The likely worst case scenario for Johnson is a small majority with a few rebels additionally losing their seats.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Thanks to JustASimpleMan for an excellent set of comments
Expat: “Filibusters will not be effective. The rules governing speeches are very different. There is already a clear plan and rules for circumventing filibusters. Any bill proposed by Remainers or Dealers will NOT be filibustered in Lords. Study up on English parliamentary law and report back.”
Mish: My report back – From the Guardian Today “Normally there are no time limits on debates in the Lords. Peers do not use programme motions, which are used in the Commons to curtail debates so that bills complete all their stages by a particular time. This led to fears that pro-Brexit peers might filibuster the bill, so that it fails to clear the Lords before prorogation. But Angela Smith, the Labour leader in the Lords, has tabled a motion to be debated tomorrow that would ensure that all stages of the Benn bill must be completed by 5pm on Friday.”
If accurate , Expat stands corrected – That said, they are attempting a filibuster work around. But I was correct, not expat. Q: is there a majority for Smith’s motion?
Remainers are fighting back, and intend to pass a never-before-used business motion in the Lords to set specific time limits for each stage of the bill, thus minimising the chances of a delay.
Former Justice Secretary Lord Falconer warned any attempt to use filibustering would be instantly rejected with little bother.
He told The Daily Telegraph: “We have the means to stop a filibuster. We’ve never used it before but we have also never been confronted with such a contemptuous action by a Prime Minister in modern times.
“Any attempt by the Government to filibuster would be knocked back by the Lords with very little difficulty.”
Gloat away. But you are wrong.
Parliamentary rules for filibusters differ greatly from Senate rules. It is not possible to blather on for days reading the phone book. you must make a coherent speech and not pause for more than a few seconds. It must be logical and goal-oriented. You cannot so easily pass the hand to another, friendly speaker. Basically, it’s not Mr. Smith Goes to Washington or some wanker from NY reading the phone book.
If you want to know why it is best to leave the EU, all you really need do on this site is read the comments of Avidremainer in this thread. That is the lunacy you are dealing with as a country.
Look, if the Remainers in Parliament really had the support of the voters, they would have voted to revoke Article 50 a year ago, or vote to do so today. All this maneuvering about further extensions, or prohibitions against No-Deal Brexit are just indications that the Remainers don’t really have the support of the people.
What? That nobody is above the law, that the Tory party is disintegrating? This has nothing to do with remain/leave. It has to do with inchoate leavers not being capable of following an argument.
You are increasingly deranged over the last year. Seek help.
As I said inchoate Brexiteers.
I understand Brexiteers (though I don’t understand American Brexiteers who are typically ignorant about all things European but hate the EU on principle yet love the USA which is a similar political structure…why don’t you attack DC, boys?). Brexiteers are older, white, racist Brits who were told a bunch of lies about budgets, borders and laws. The Remainers never believed people were stupid enough to leave so they did not campaign very hard and did not turn out to vote in the same numbers as Leavers.
It was never suggested by Brexiteers or anyone that Britain would leave “cold turkey” with no agreements regarding travel, work, and the Irish Border. Brexiteers promised better trade deals that would be in place before Brexit, but this was illegal and never happened.
Most Brits don’t want a hard Brexit (No-Deal Brexit is not a real thing since the EU agreement provides the terms for leaving). They know that a hard deal will be very painful and probably lead to a restart of violence in Northern Ireland.
So now Boris is trying to leave without a deal, despite all the promises he made during Brexit campaigning. Perhaps this is a negotiating tactic with the EU, but the EU doesn’t give a rat’s ass anymore. Britain has gotten all it will get from the EU.
This harping on about the Will of the People is pure bullshit. The people don’t want a hard Brexit. Most of those who voted to leave want the Miracle Brexit with Ponies, Unicorns and Jam Doughnuts that Farage and Johnson promised them three years ago.
Just have an election and lets see.
Parliament vs Electorate.
That will be it, move on.
Expat, you are funny, one can always tell if someone is losing the debate when they have to resort to offensive, insulting, bad language…as you have.
This is what was promised before the referendum by the then Prime Minister, David CAMERON, in 2015:
“And ultimately it will be the judgment of the British people in the referendum that I promised and that I will deliver. You will have to judge what is best for you and your family, for your children and grandchildren, for our country, for our future. It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave. Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’. Not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you.
You, the British people, will decide. At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.
So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave… …would merely produce another stronger renegotiation and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay… …I say think again. The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. AN IN OR OUT REFERENDUM.
When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.”
I have put the…’An in or out referendum’ in capitals for your benefit.
RIGHT !
Yes, congratulations. You have discovered a long-winded speech by David Cameron from 2015. Of course, this does not address my comments in any way, but you know that and simply unable to address them without admitting that the referendum, as delivered, was not accurate or representative.
And where were insulted specifically? In the part where I shamed you by describing the referendum and Brexit campaign? Was that too offensive? Do you need a safe space?
It’s so easy to write “oh, you are mean and vulgar. I hate you and disagree with you on principle.” and then ignore the facts.
Come on, if you are finished crying and whining, you can address the facts.
of course ‘the EU doesn t give a rat ‘s ass anymore ‘….What did you expect from a clueless, worthless, careless(except about their loaded tax free bank accounts) parasitic fairweather bunch ?
So why is Boris still trying to negotiate? FUck off, Boris. The Continent is happier without you.
What facts? All that you spout are angry delusions.
In answer to a question from Angela Eagle MP as to whether he would obey the law the liar has just replied replied ” We will of course obey the law and constitution.” No one is above the law. Will you now ask whoever is advising you why they don’t know what they are talking about?
Can’t profess to know what is for the best but wonder if it might just be time for an election in any case?
Brexit or no-Brexit.
Oct 14th, Battle of Hastings. Defence vs Norman’s from what is now France. History goes full circle. Independence or subjugation to a foreign entity. Let the people decide.
What is interesting is the wording of the bill:
“If the European council decides to agree an extension of the period of Article 50(3) of the Treaty of the European Union ending at 11:00 pm on the 31st October 2019 but to a date other than 31st January 2020, the prime minister must, within a period of two days beginning with the end of the day of the European Council’s decision is made or before the end of October 30th 2019, whichever is sooner, notify the president of the European Council that the United Kingdom agrees to the proposed extension”
Aside from the fact that this is a overt attempt at completely tying the governments hands and essentially allowing the EU to control the process, if you look at this:
It is a bit long and complicated but the conclusion is this:
“The proponents of a new Bill to prevent No Deal are caught on the horns of a dilemma. If they draft a Bill that only mandates the PM to seek an extension, the PM would be left free to refuse to agree or accept any extension in negotiations with the EU27.
If, by contrast, MPs try to impose a requirement, by any method, that the PM agree or accept any new exit date from the EU27, Commons procedural rules mean that the government would be required formally to approve the Bill by affirming ‘Queen’s Consent’ to the Bill at the Third Reading stage. This is because the power to agree or accept an extension is normally exercised using a prerogative power. Any statute that had the legal effect, by whatever means, of forcing the PM to agree an extension to the Article 50 process would manifestly ‘affect’ the prerogative for the purposes of the relevant test as to whether Queen’s Consent is required.”
In my mind, the bill does impose acceptance. According to the blog post, the irony is that the Gina Miller case and other cases has sort to clarify the distinction…in any case if the bill passes no doubt it will end up in the courts
Thank you for that post.
Great find and an interesting read.
If the analysis is correct, then there is nothing stopping Boris from freeing us from the EU if he is of a mind to do so. I am sure that Boris and his team know this.
So watch what they do and not what they say. If Boris calls an election before 31st Oct, leaving us unfreed from the EU, then he clearly says one thing whilst doing another.
Meanwhile in the EU…
Gabriel Felbermayr, president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, says the strategy of forcing Britain to jump through divorce hoops before trade talks could begin was a serious error and has led to a dead-end.
“The EU must finally start to think strategically. This means giving up the dogma of the inviolable four freedoms and offering the UK, and likewise Switzerland, the maximum possible economic integration that is possible without political union,” he said.
Pragmatism. Sounds sensible.
Trouble is EU is run by zealots.
You can’t negotiate with zealots.
“…and offering the UK, and likewise Switzerland….”
And, by extension, all the others who will want to follow. This is essentially an argument for a two, or more accurately multi, tier Europe. Which is the only one that makes sense. Good to see it articulated by a “prominent” German, as Germany is the country which have to put its foot down. The rest of the “pro-Europe” “Elites”, are only in it for the opportunity it allows for leeching off Germans.
Boris Johnson is going to stitch us up one way or another. He has the power to deliver Brexit by delaying an election until Oct 31st or later. The only reason not to is if he is really in the tank for remain. Looks like a Oct 17th election.
If there is an “emergency” declaration, and it passes Commons and the House of Lords then it becomes binding. That still does not force Johnson to honor it.
It will not come to that. The dates by Johnson’s team were carefully selected.
Johnson will filibuster in the house of Lords long enough to make the point moot.
Filibusters will not be effective. The rules governing speeches are very different. There is already a clear plan and rules for circumventing filibusters. Any bill proposed by Remainers or Dealers will NOT be filibustered in Lords.
Study up on English parliamentary law and report back.
Obviously you have no idea what you are talking about, as a filibuster is going on right now.
how can you say that Johnson is not bound to honor an act of Parliament? As far as I can tell, Johnson is PM, not King.
“If a bill becomes an Act of Parliament then it is the law of the land. If a law of the land instructs, in this case, Johnson to do something and he refuses then he resigns”
I understand UK law far better than AvidRemainer
Until Johnson Delivers the Queen’s Speech no legislation initiated by Parliament is Binding.
Parliament can legally amend legislation, but Johnson is not stupid enough to submit any.
“I remind you that you said that nothing could force Mrs May to obey a similar law passed by parliament in the spring. She obeyed the law. More importantly Johnson blinked.”
I remind you that Theresa May submitted legislation. Parliament amended it. Yes, she was legally bound.
Please study up on UK law and report back.
Thanks
If only you did understand the law. If the rebel alliance ( Obi Wan and all) succeed then the Ben Bill becomes an act on prorogation. The Queen has no choice in which Acts she assents to neither does the liar Johnson. The Queen’s speech sets out the Government’s program for the next session of Parliament. It really is that simple. Whoever is advising you is a dipstick.
As far as I can tell, the Queen’s Speech is simply a tradition in which the Queen reads out the new government’s plan. She is not required to mention specific bills. Nor is a bill required to be cited and explained in the Queen’s Speech.
MP’s can introduce a public bill at any time. ANY member can introduce a bill. The government has no authority to prevent the introduction of bills. They can defeat its passage if they control parliament.
It is also likely that given that the Referendum is the Law of the Land, parliament can amend it without introducing a new bill.
Please study up on UK law and report back.
Who cares on this side of the pond? So what?
Loss of relevance on the part of British and specifically English to the world is irresistible and irreversible, Brexit or no. The video that I posted and which was deleted on Boris was funny. It is entertainment…
If a bill becomes an Act of Parliament then it is the law of the land. If a law of the land instructs, in this case, Johnson to do something and he refuses then he resigns. A government cannot refuse to obey the law. No one is above the law. I remind you that you said that nothing could force Mrs May to obey a similar law passed by parliament in the spring. She obeyed the law. More importantly Johnson blinked.
?
Oh dear, oh dear. You’ve bought the remoaner, sunny view of eternal European fraternity again. There’s a long way to go before it could become law. After that, there’s no way it will work anyway. The steps are:
Has to get through the Commons (past a bus-load of Labour Brexiteers in strongly pro-Brexit seats, mindful of their chances of losing their seats and more than willing to defy the Corbyn whip).
Then it has to pass the Lords, where it can be talked out until Hell freezes over. Slim chance of passing before prorogation, but let’s assume they manage it.
After step 1 (or 2) Johnson offers up an election, where there will be an informal pact with Brexit party and the fractured remoaner alliance will get obliterated on 14th October. I say this with great sadness as a lifetime Labour voter, but Corbyn needs to bite the electoral dust before we ever have a chance again.
If Corbyn doesn’t take the bait, bill goes into law. Hold on there Sparky, it ain’t over yet. Johnson goes to EU meeting on 17th October with request for an extension in hand. He tells them that if granted he will be an obdurate pain in the botty at every EU opportunity. Including the 4 year budget renewal that has to be concluded by the end of 2019 and where a single veto is still valid.
Johnson points out that even if the other 27 say yes to an extension, he will veto it anyway, because all 28 members have to agree. No extension, only way out now is to revoke Act 50.
18th October is too late for the remoaners to act because even if they try a vote of no confidence, Johnson has 14 days to sit on his hands and do nothing which takes us up to ….. 1st November.
Johnson calls election anyway for early November. Brexit party now has no raison d’être so is now not an electoral player. Johnson gets a thumping majority and is in a position to very quickly say to EU, “I have a majority, can get whatever I want through Parliament, let’s do a deal. And forget the previous one, it’s pining for the fjords.”
Face it, we’re going to be out, deal or no deal. You’d better start stocking up on quinoa and anti-anxiety meds.
.
So much effort for so much rubbish. If there is a VONC then an alternative Government will be in place to take over the next day. The 14 days are irrelevant. Our politicians may not be very good but they are not stupid. The Tory party is in the process of disintegration. If the Benn bill becomes an Act that will complete the disintegration. Wholesale defections of Tory MPs to the Lib-Dems will follow and hopefully the strangle hold of the Public school and Oxbridge will be broken.
Far be it from me to highlight delusion but there you go.
Philip Lee, ex Tory and now LibDem has just crossed the floor whilst the liar Johnson is speaking in the HOC. Given your deluded ramblings yes, far be it from you.
What will this new government do? Take over and revoke article 50?
If they do that they will destroy the belief that voting changes anything. The referendum mandate was clear, Leave the EU. Over 3 years later we havent left. Do these remainers really want to eradicate the principle that the people decide certain constitutional matters by referendum?
I guess that they do wish to destroy that principle.
They are playing a dangerous game. They should realise, that even if they win, they cannot win.
It would be interesting and certainly edifying to have a new referendum with the truth clearly explained to voters. It seems to me that Leavers are whinge an awful lot about the Referendum Vote being the Unchangeable Will of the People. I doubt you would say the same thing if the shoe were on the other foot.
If the People’s Will is so clear and Brits want to lose their rights in Europe, watch Northern Ireland descend back into violence, pay the billions they owe and NOT get back billions a week for the NHS, then have another referendum. It would have been simpler and easier to do so rather than go through everything that has happened. It would have at least been clear. But Leavers are terrified that once voters know the truth about Brexit, they will vote to remain and the delusional, racist dreams of White Britain will be dashed once again.
Principles? Bah! Farage and Johnson certainly have none.
That said, we won’t miss you. And we won’t suffer nearly as much as you. So enjoy the inevitable Brexit. Maybe Trump will buy you.
No, they will ask for an extension for either a referendum or general election. Are you incapable of understanding English?
Lee faced a local no-confidence vote back about June and was up for deselection at next election.
No surprise he jumped and will be interesting to see if he keeps his seat.
His actions may well have accelerated an election, no deal Brexit and his own demise as an MP. Down in history as the man that caused a Parliamentary purge.
Which goes to prove my point that if the Benn bill becomes an act Johnson has promised to withdraw the Tory whip from the rebels. This will cause an increase in the number of LibDem members of parliament.
I’m often wrong but have a very strong suspicion Remainers are bringing about their own demise in Parliament at the hands of the electorate, not Johnsons hand.
Yes, there will be an election in all likelihood. Tory Campaign Force has been ready a while and funded, targetting 160 specific seats.
Interesting to note it corresponds to the dates for the spend on ads, largest since WW2.
A purge, one way or another.
The Tory campaign force does not exist, unless they have jet powered zimmer frames.
You have no idea Avid.
I know they do from first hand.
Good luck.
& bring about an election.
Note what Johnson said in his speech, towards the end.
He doesn’t want an election but he put it in there as a veiled threat.
it’s now the only fall back. He is leaving it to others to trigger. Exacty the trap they are falling into.
It’s Parliament vs People.
Dangerous indeed.
We know where Parliament vs King went.
A purge of Parliament is needed to remove one side or the other.
Not a time for fence sitting.