“Let the Massacre Begin” saysEurointelligence.
The gloves have come off on both sides. MPs are now plotting a strategy to take total control of the House of Commons, and anti-Brexit Lords have devised a strategy to frustrate a filibuster. The important question is not whether a legislative route is theoretically possible within the time limits – we think it probably is – but whether the rebels have the votes, and if they do, whether such legislation is effective. On the first, we don’t think they do. On the second, we are sure that it is not.
Time Limits
Regarding time limits, Eurointelligence seems to have come around to my point of view that the real physical limit may be September 9.
Alternatively, both of us noted a chance of everything getting done precisely on September 3. That mathematical chance always existed.
Possibly we are discussing two different things depending on what Eurointelligence means by “legislation”.
The point is moot because even if there is time and there is a sufficient number of votes, Eurointelligence has the view I have stated many times recently “we are sure” that it won’t work.
Arm Twisting
There is a lot of arm-twisting going on in the background – coupled with the implicit threat that a vote in favour of anti-Brexit legislation would most likely trigger elections and the certain deselection of Tory rebels. Tories and Labour MPs are both aware that extension is not a popular option in the country. The April extension brought victory to Nigel Farage’s party in the European elections in May. If parliament votes in favour of a law to extend, it is possible that Johnson would then risk a pre-Brexit election, with the support of Corbyn. We think he will probably do at least as well as Theresa May did two years ago, but with MPs that are committed to his Brexit strategy.
Not Understanding the Law
The default legal position is that Brexit happens on October 31.
The UK cannot unilaterally change that even if Parliament passes a law declaring it illegal.
I have been amused from the beginning about such tactics, have frequently stated such laws are not binding. Eurointelligence comments similarly.
The Remainers’ biggest weakness is a lack of an overall strategy that extends beyond the narrow confines of the House of Commons and its ancient rules. The single biggest misunderstanding in the Brexit process relates to the nature of Art. 50, which is EU law, not UK law. We were reminded of this once again yesterday when we saw an article in Prospect magazine, which compared the five-week prorogation to Hitler’s Reichstag fire. Apart from the fact that it is never a good idea to make casual Hitler comparisons, the comparison reveals a lot about the author’s exaggerated views on the role of the parliament. Art. 50 gives parliaments two specific rights: ratify a withdrawal deal or revoke. Prorogation will not restrict the parliament’s ability to do either of those things.
Johnson could frustrate even a watertight extension bill by threatening to become a rogue member of the European Council, vetoing every decision that is put in front of him. If push comes to shove, the European Council is more likely to side with Johnson against the parliament, than vice versa, unless they have the confidence that the parliament can produce an alternative PM. This is why the rebels really need a new prime minister in place by end-October. Legislation to extend only works if there is at least some collusion from Number 10, as was the case with May.
Three Part Scenario
Once again we return to the one and only scenario that has a chance:
- A motion of no confidence that succeeds
- Parliament agrees on an alternate caretaker PM
- Johnson goes along with it and resigns or loses a legal challenge if he doesn’t.
Even then, there is a high likelihood that Johnson wins the ensuing election.
Polls
That margin would likely give Johnson a workable majority.
And I suspect that Johnson would cooperate with the Brexit Party for a huge majority unless Labour and the Liberal Democrats united.
The Brexiteers are united, but Labour wants a referendum for which there is little public support while the Liberal Democrats want to remain.
It’s even a bit more complicated for Labour because Corbyn personally supports a customs union.
This is the huge problem for Labour at the moment.
We Have a Way
Boris Johnson made this claim today: “We Have a Way to Get Brexit Done“.
- Boris Johnson has warned MPs that trying to block a no-deal Brexit makes that outcome more likely. Defending his decision to prorogue parliament he said: “The weird thing is, that the more the parliamentarians try to block the no-deal Brexit, the more likely it is that we’ll end up in that situation.”
- Johnson also claimed the government had found a way to get Brexit done. He said: “We are in the last stages now of negotiating with our friends about a way to get it done. If we can’t succeed in that negotiation we must come out anyway.”
- Ken Clarke has said he “probably would” back Jeremy Corbyn to be caretaker prime minister in order to block a no-deal Brexit. But he added: “I don’t think it’s going to happen, because I must be one of a tiny number of Tories prepared to contemplate that.”
- Ireland’s deputy premier Simon Coveney insisted that any Brexit deal with the UK must be based on the withdrawal agreement negotiated by Theresa May.
Willing to Fall on Their Own Sword
Read point three carefully. It’s a point I have made repeatedly.
Any Tory who votes against the government will be immediately outed from the party and lose their seat in the next election.
Point four ensures No Deal. I expect Ireland to cave, but I would rather they not.
If Ireland insists on keeping the backstop, there cannot be a deal and that is the best outcome for the UK other than a straight-forward Canada-style tariff deal.
Let’s see how many Tories are willing to fall on their sword. Even a handful might be insufficient because a similar number of Labour MPs are hard Brexiteers.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Today we found out how remainers are going to keep us in the EU.
Boris Johnson talks of leaving the EU with a Hard Brexit, but he is looking to me a remainer setting us all up for one great act of treachery. He has just indicated that there will be a general election on the 14th October.
I have always said that if there is an election before we leave, then we will never leave. There is room there for an openly remainer government to take over from the covertly remainer one we have now, and they can pretend to negotiate a leave deal or simply say that they have a mandate and forget about it.
Boris, by pretending to be leave, will split the vote for leave. Remain will act in concert and get a majority. And if Boris wins, he will carry out the act of betrayal himself.
The forces acting against the British people are incredibly strong. Shame that there are too many useful idiots who don’t see what is going on and who will now help to destroy this nation.
I suppose there could be a coup in the Privy Council to override BoJo, but that would indeed create a Constitutional Crisis. Like Nigel Farage, I am sceptical that Boris actually wants a No Deal Brexit; the curious thing why so many bright people are hyperventilating about what is Boris’ and the UK’s most effective negotiating tool. It seems the Brits have become the new cheese-eating surrender monkeys of the EU.
Mish, another thing to consider is in case of vote of no confidence – thanks to the fixed term parliament act, there are no rules on what happens in the 14 days after that. Essentially Boris Johnson could try himself to form another government in the 14 days; there is no law or precedence against that. Jeremy Corbyn cannot just show-up at the Queen palace and ask to become the next PM. Only after the 14 days and lack of vote of confidence then the PM (only Boris) must go to the Queen ask for a general election with a date of his choice. Is this case we are way beyond 31/10.
Exactly. The 14 days is basically the ‘Nick Clegg Blackmail’ period. The Act is silent on what should happen during that 14 day window save that there can be a motion of confidence, but it does not say the incumbent government should resign. Her Majesty would not summon Corbyn unless her advisors were reasonably confident he could command a majority, which at present he cannot.
There will only be a VONC if there is an alternative Prime Minister and coalition in place to take over the day after. Corbyn is trying to assemble that coalition now. The 14 day period is irrelevant.
BooBoo is trading Little England’s economic future for a longer stay in #10. No serious economist has said Brexit will be good for Little England, beyond allowing it to become a low tax, low regulation and low public service quasi-Third World nation. Even the ERG’s pet economist says it will kill manufacturing. But Little Englandershave convinced themselves that, reality to the contrary, they reside in a global super-power, the one that won both world wars single-handedly. Simply following LEAVERs twists and spins on the future shows how out of touch with reality they are. From the easiest free trade deal ever because the EU needed the UK more than the other way around to free trade under the WTO’s Article 24 to trade under the WTO being borderless ( just like,, according to their fantasies anyways under NAFTA)to the biggest free trade deal ever with tRump to a few mini trade deals with America next year but only if Little England lets the White house write its tax and foreign policies. And they see these as all brilliant ideas.
Thought experiment.
If Brexit deadline is met, post Oct 31st all parties except Tories will want to “return”. They can be labelled “returners”.
The “return” vote will be split – Lab, Lib-Dem etc.
The “no-return” vote will have to go to Tories as the only party to vote for as expect Brexit Party to join forces with Tories, especially in Labour heartlands where they might collaborate where Brexit Party stands a better chance.
If correct this will encourage Tories to want Oct 31st as final out date.
EU forcing Oct 31st is helping Johnson cement another outcome -Parliamentary control with pro Britain policies needed to thrive post-Brexit and incentivise competitiveness. What the EU dont want is a pro-Britain Gov with gloves off.
Hence Macron offer to extend Oct 31st deadline.
Like I wrote the other day, the Remain faction is getting close to taking extra-legal methods to stop Brexit altogether. When the present farcical stuff ends in Parliament in the 2nd week of September is the time to pay close attention- these people are willing to do anything to win- anything.
I vote to leave because I wouldn’t want Brussels running my country, if I had one. But this has long passed the complexity level of my understanding. I’ll wait for the movie.
Mish, I understand this is very important to you. Respectfully, may I ask why? I think I am missing something.
The British Press is rubbish at reporting how the EU is run. Qualified Majority Voting is the norm now so the prospect of Johnson running amok in Europe is ludicrous. On a more important matter if you think Johnson is clever or devious to run the risks he is running then you are off your head.
Why?
Let the massacre begin, traitors, war cabinet, betrayal, EUSSR, comparing the EU to Nazis. Words matter, words can inflame. If you think that Boris is calming the country and providing a leadership that will unite the country then you are off your head. Johnson wants a no deal exit, that is obvious. Half the country finds that unacceptable.
Why does “half” the country keep losing elections? First, the general election in which the Tories promised a referendum, the referendum itself, the general election after the referendum, the EU elections. It may be closely divided, but “remain” lost (over and over) and it’s time to move forward. Words matter and elections don’t?
yancy_ward above has it right. Your interpretation of election results is also askew. No one won the ’17 election, at the last Euro elections Remain was in the majority. Last night there was a riot in Glasgow. Marchers in favour of Irish unity were fighting with Unionists. I repeat this was in Glasgow, Scotland. All sorts of ugly problems that were being contained are now bubbling to the surface. The Glasgow riots are a harbinger of things to come. Democracy works when the losers consent. If half the country do not consent then the country is in trouble.
I’m trying to understand the logic. Is the remainer thought process: “Yes we lost the Brexit referendum, but the vote was close and we don’t consent to the outcome of the vote. Therefore, the country must remain or there will be violence?” Violence is unfortunate, but throwing the biggest tantrum probably shouldn’t be allowed to overturn the referendum result.
I don’t see logic anywhere. We are not dealing with logic. Abraham Lincoln won the 1860 election. Did logic prevent the civil war? If you listen to any dialogue between a remainer and a brexiteer it quickly dissolves into a shouting match. With logic and reasoned argument out if the way all you have is chaos.
I hope it’s not the case, but then it seems violence is probably inevitable no matter what the result is at this point. That is a very unfortunate situation.
Once again, you fail to recognise the difference between the way it is and the way you wish it were.
Although qualified majority voting does indeed apply to many areas of EU law, it does not apply to the approval of the EU budget, which is due to be settled in 2019. If we are forced to remain in past the end of December 2019, Johnson just needs to continually exercise his unilateral budget veto.
In fact, even if he gets a stonking majority in the soon to be held election, the best way forward might be to cancel article 50 and just veto the budget until the EU is forced to agree in advance a favourable deal before we re-trigger.
Nothing, absolutely nothing concentrates the EU psyche like someone derailing the gravy train. They should get their heads around it long before a five year fixed term parliament expires.
If the Brits, their leaders in particular, have any common sense left they should get rid of the sticky, undemocratic, totally worthless EU circus, asap, before EU sponsered msn brainwashes the herd even more ! NOBODY needs the EU apart from the corrupt nomenklatura it was created for , GET RID OF IT , for once and for all !
Sure because 2 world wars when there was no EU was sooooo great (north of 80 million).
How did Yugoslavia work out?
And your point is?
His point is Germany helped it via unilateral recognition of Croatia. Read up on Croatia and Germany going back to WW2 and then the actions just prior to the Balkan conflict.
Take some time and see the moving parts that led to massacres, ethic cleansing etc.
Thankfully they turned back from Ukraine a few years ago. A dirty little secret. Listen to Lord David Owen to get some idea. Listen to him about Trichet too. Owen was an “insider” and pro-Brexit for good reasons.
Oh please don’t use the the Brits as example of “war-seeking” moderates. There are two countries in the EU that are more than willing to go to war to support the USA war efforts: UK and France.
Do you mean that Germany acted as a sovereign state? Surely this is impossible since Germany is in the EU and is thus not a sovereign state. I agree that Kohl’s actions were disgusting but you cannot have it both ways. Either Germany is a sovereign state or it is not. This goes to the heart of the Brexiteer’s argument and shows how stupid it is.
Nonesense. EU is neither fish nor flesh. Other example is unilateral German immigration decisions impacting neighbours that had to police overland migration across their territories.
Attempts by those neighbours to protect their external borders resulted in admonish from the EU.
The neighbours were not consulted in the original decision.
Any country transferring any further power to Brussells is dumb and indeed they should begin repatriation of powers. Let’s see what and how long before populations wake up.
Really? That’s your argument? without wanting to diminish the number of death in the civil war you are comparing 80M death against 100K…
Also, for all those EU hater let me point out that the creation of this “perfect” union (USA) cost about 600K death (civil war). I think the EU is handling the divorce way better than Mish would make you believe
100,000 compared to 80 million?
How many states in the EU? 27 is it? What would an EU civil war look like, compared to Yugoslavia?
How then would an EU be superior to what existed prior to the EU?
The claim to fame was that a united Europe would prevent another major European war. United Yugoslavia under Tito didn’t prevent a civil war after his death.
Make one thing clear. It was France v Germany predominantly. They had an uncontrollable urge to massacre each other – 3 time since approx 1876 alone.
Don’t tar all European countries with the same brush. Most were too small to be a major threat to others. Now most of those small countries are under the weight of a French type EU administration and servant to a Germany favouring single currency.
It’s European domination of another type by the two largest entities.
NATO and a crippled Germany prevented a 3rd big conflict.
Now NATO is declining and Germany accedent via the EU.
I fully expect major conflict but not France v Germany but EU vs others. Not now but 10 – 25 years hence.
C.A. The current rate of immigration by third worlders into the E.U. will ensure the current demographic mix will be overtaken in your 10 – 25 year time frame. There wont be a need to go to war – it’ll be too late. the invasion will already have taken place.
The EU is a amorph, clueless fairweather institute ! Because of a global economic bonanza and ‘civilization’ in general, mayor conflicts have been avoided in recent decades, NOTHING to do with the EU…..My late father was in business all over Europe BEFORE the EU…more administration, yes ….but BETTER, more rewarding than now…. The EU we cant live without yEU ….DelEUsion …Pathetic
I’ll believe Brexit when it occurs … and not a moment sooner.
Grexit failed … when Tsipras holding 4 aces folded (any guesses the number of zeros behind the number wired to his swiss bank account?)
Plenty of time for hanky pany.
Tend to agree.
Some dark forces at work.
French want to extend Article 50 to take wind out of Johnssons sails, past Oct 31st.
What next?