Google Elections has a nice Interactive Map of the Iowa Caucus.
Click on the above link to see live results.
Joe Trippi writing for Fox News says Prepare to Be Surprised By Iowa Caucus Results and that high turnout favors Ron Paul.
Watch Dubuque: The county in the northeast corner of the state is heavily Catholic and an area Romney scored well in four years ago. If Rick Santorum isn’t winning here it means the Santorum surge isn’t real or isn’t big enough to matter. The state is 23% Catholic – if Santorum, a pro-life Catholic himself, consolidates the Catholic vote in Dubuque and elsewhere the Iowa surprise could be a Santorum win.
Turnout: The higher the turnout the more like it is that Ron Paul wins the state. Ron Paul pulls in college students as well as Democratic and Independent and voters who do not typically vote in GOP caucuses. If they show up, turnout will be unusually high and the surprise could be the GOP suddenly having to deal with a libertarian uprising in their party.
Settling for Romney: Iowa, after all the ups and downs of the year, could “settle for Romney” with voters worried about defeating Obama they could make their decision on electability like the experience I had with Mondale. – But even in this scenario (as I learned with Fritz) the surprise will be who took second.
Call it the curse of the frontrunner, but Romney is supposed to win, so the story coming out of Iowa if he does win might be on the unexpected second place finisher emerging as the “other candidate.”
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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