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Covid-19 Accelerates the Trend of People Moving Out Of the Largest Cities

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47 comments on Covid-19 Accelerates the Trend of People Moving Out Of the Largest Cities

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Data Census Department, chart New Geography, Red and Green Spotlights by Mish

CBSA stands for Core Based Statistical Areas (metropolitan areas and micropolitan areas), non-rural. 

Areas outside CBSA’s are not rural, they are simply not in metropolitan or micropolitan areas. According to the Office of Management and Budget, “The CBSA classification is not an urban-rural classification; Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas and many counties outside CBSAs contain both urban and rural populations.” 

New Geography notes Domestic Migration Trend Accelerates

Annual Net Migration Notes

  • These are metro area migrations. There are no cities over 10 million in population.
  • My red highlights are continuations of trends but represent reversals from 2015-2020. note reversals. 
  • My green highlights note the strongest continuation of existing flight out of the biggest cities. 
  • Also note unmarked line and the trend for line 1,000,000 to 2,499,000. 
  • In general, metro areas over 1,000,000 in population are losing residents while every other category is gaining population.

Percentage Migration

Percentage Migration Chart Notes

  • The 10 million+ metro area group consists of just two areas New York and Los Angeles.
  • Those two largest areas area are getting exodus clobbered. 
  • The Metro areas under 1 million are the big gainers.

Annual Net Domestic Migration 2010-2021

In general, people want out of the biggest cities. The leap in 2021 was impressive, if not shocking. 

New Geography Specifics 

  • The largest overall net domestic migration gain was in the metropolitan areas with from 500,000 to 999,999 population in 2010, at 248,000. This was nearly eight times the average from 2010 to 2015. The largest gainers were Sarasota, FL, at 29,000, Cape Coral, FL, at 26,000, Lakeland, FL, at 25,000 and Boise, ID, at 24,000. 

  • The 250,000 to 499,999 2010 population category added net domestic migrants in 2021 at nearly six times the rate of 2010-2015. The largest gainers were Myrtle Beach, SC-NC, at 22,000 and Port St. Lucie, FL, at 16,000. The largest losses were in Salinas, CA and Santa Maria (Santa Barbara), CA at between 3,000 and 4,000. 

  • The 100,000 to 249,999 2010 population category lost an average of 11,000 net domestic migrants, and increased to 161,000 in 2020-2021. The leaders in this category were Punta Gorda, FL and St. George, UT, at 9,000. Even with this gain, a number of CBSAs sustained losses, and the largest in this category was in Lake Charles, LA, at 12,000.

Largest Percentage Net Domestic Migration

Data Census Department, chart New Geography, Blue Box Highlight by Mish

I am part of two groups in these charts. We escaped Crystal Lake Illinois in 2020. It’s a part of the Chicago Metro Area. We moved to St. George, UT, the third largest percentage gainer. 

How much of this is Covid-19 related vs retirement? 

A huge wave of boomers were headed towards retirement before the pandemic hit. Some of that retirement and retirement-related movement was going to happen anyway. 

Covid clearly accelerated things, but some of this was going to happen anyway. The George Floyd riots likely had an impact too. 

So do school systems, school policies, and big city taxes. 

Why St. George?

  • The metro area has a population of about 180,000 and the city proper about 95,000. It has a lot of services and things to do with many excellent golf courses.
  • The city has its own airport but the Las Vegas International Airport is just 1.5 hours away. A shuttle is under $50.
  • Photography, photography, photography

Regarding point three, there are four national parks within a few hours and about seven within six hours. 

Zion national park is just over an hour away. And in the summer when it’s blistering hot, the North Rim of the Grand Canyon is only 2.5 hours away with temperatures in the 70s.  

Check Out My Photography

To see my photographic images, please check out MishMoments. Thanks.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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Mike Shedlock

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47 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
I would be curious to have an estimate of how much of this movement is (accelerated) retirement, and how much is people escaping Gotham blue hives.
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Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej
And how much of the illegal migration swell lands up in the metro areas, muting the out migration.
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Mike 2112
Mike 2112
4 years ago
NYC slit its own wrists with their covid fear mongering.
NYC made its money off of the crowded office/elevator/subway commuter model. Extreme fear mongering over an airborne respiratory disease was the LAST thing a competent govt in NYC wouldve done, but NYC is on Team Blue and covid fear mongering quickly became part of TB’s new religion (along with Race and Gender dogma).
There is no going back for NYC. Subway ridership is down by 50% from pre-pandemic. Commuter parking lots in the Hudson Valley are at about 20% capacity M-F. They used to be near 100%. No one wants to commute to the city where the cops cant address street crime and judges cant remand repeat offenders due to NYS’ disastrous Bail Reform laws.
Staying home, getting more sleep, zero time commuting, saving $500+ a month on train and subway fares, and not having to risk your personal safety in NYC is a no-brainer.
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vanderlyn
vanderlyn
4 years ago
exquisite photos, mish. i’ve moved around a great deal over the decades. back in the biggest city in US, after being gone, 27 years. i believe manhattan peaked population over a century ago, when they built the brooklyn bridge. there are negatives to fast growth in places, for many residents. i lived in sc and az and ca. all were very fast growing in the years i was there. the world and our country are going through a huge transition now. how it all shakes out will be very interesting.
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Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
Reply to  vanderlyn
Interesting maybe, but hardly exciting.
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Robbyrob
Robbyrob
4 years ago
Goldman Sachs Sees U.S. Recession Odds at 35% in Next Two Years
  • Jan Hatzius says Fed faces ‘hard path to a soft landing’
  • Big declines in jobs-workers gap have usually meant recessions
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Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
4 years ago
The population migration largely reflects a political shift from Blue to Red states. Blue states are now bluer, and red states are now redder. Such a polarization makes changing public leadership more difficult, and the effect of re-balancing the House of Representatives will not be felt for another 8 or 9 years.
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LPCONGAS99
LPCONGAS99
4 years ago
Reply to  Six000mileyear
Well whomever is in charge keeps doing airdrops into Westchester County NY Airport at midnight and then buses oh 90% of single males into the surrounding cities. All paid for by us. Apparently we have no say anymore.
Giving whomever is in charge the benefit of the doubt that they are not airdropping child rapists and criminals and just hardworking young people whom want the American dream. I will look on the bright side and be grateful they are not islamic terrorists
If that sounds racist, it is the absolute truth……That is exactly what is going on for 12 months now.
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Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Management and the educational system.
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FromBrussels
FromBrussels
4 years ago
WHAT exactly was, or most likely, continues being, C19 ….apart from a p(l)anned)emy ? Fn incredible actually, all them fn ignorant and utterly stupid msm brainwashed people , beguiled by B pharma and bribed corrupt utterly useless governments ….Can t believe my fn eyes when watching what s going on …. Anti Russia related narrative included of course , ….Right Doug? Btw, I answered your ‘intelligent’ remarks …
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Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
Haven’t you signed up yet to defend Mother Russia or is it that you have cushy job you don’t want to leave and gives you a draft exemption?
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Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
You write angrily emails to americanskis while poop on decadent Belgian crapper, 35 million real Russians poop in outhouse with no emails! Yet you think you deserving potato for leaving but is not so! Your enraged toilet typing will give you only red ring around your back end! Silly toilet gnat traitor to Russian peoples!
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Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
In the 1960’s New York was the worst place to live. The movie “Taxis Driver” was an accurate description of how it was. The New York middle class fled to the suburbs. A few years later a new municipal administration was elected in and cleaned it up. People came back and companies prospered as young professionals discovered the advantages in professional and social development that a big city offers and small cannot. Several years ago bad municipal elections resulted in a return to the 1960’s and again the middle class is fleeing the big cities. It’s a cycle that repeats over and over. Big cities are great if you are safe and can make enough to be able to enjoy what big cities offer and they do offer an incredible variety of stimulation that you can’t get in St. George. That being said if you can do without the crime, the taxes and the everyday hassles then by all means leave it and settle somewhere where you can live better. That is what people have done throughout history. Big cities suck now and the future in the next few years will be in smaller cities and communities giving them finally an influx of business and reversing the big-city brain drain back to those communities. Right now big cities are still good but only if you have gobs of money. If you are middle class then they are less good and getting worse. In twenty years that might change but for now the trend is out of the big cities and into the small ones.
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Karlmarx
Karlmarx
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
100 Percent true. NYC today is like Taxi Driver with better clothes. It took the COVID police state that was established to finally get my wife to see the light and get out of that rat trap. Moving to Sarasota was the best decision that I ever made. Forget the taxes, the noise, the lack of decorum in NY, just being in a place where I don’t fear that I will be sent to some sort of camp has taken a huge weight off of us.
Not to compare NYC to Ukraine, but in many cases its really just a matter of degree. God bless those people this Easter Sunday.
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Mike 2112
Mike 2112
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Even when NYC had 2K murders a yr the subway and commuter trains from Long Island, NJ, and the Hudson Valley were full b/c Manhattan was where the work happened.
But those days are over. The internet makes it so ppl can work from home and/or work in smaller offices outside of NYC.
White collar workers dont have to be commuters anymore and with the streets and subwaybeing overrun with homeless ppl who are addicts and/or mentally ill NYC is giving them every reason to want to stay away.
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MPO45
MPO45
4 years ago
Does St. George have advanced medical centers for things like stroke or heart attacks? Cancer treatment centers? It is curious that many boomers are moving to the middle of nowhere at a time they will be needing medical care the most. And what about nursing homes? Who will provide all the intense labor needed for these activities?
It’s good boomers are leaving big cities though, their contributions to the work environment do dwindle down with age to be replaced with younger generations.
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Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
that is a very valid point. I live minutes away from some of the best hospitals in France. When my wife and I think about moving just about every other place is worse in the health care area. For me it’s important since I want to live forever just to screw Millennial’s heads. We are thinking of moving to Palm Beach County FL. My parents are 98 years old now and the health care they get there proves that is is really good for oldsters.
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Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
I hope to live long enough until they develop the ability to upload your conscious into a computer. This would allow you to become functionally immortal, especially if the process could be reversed on demand. Imagine that a custom body could be be grown for you on demand that you could download your conscience into for a period of time, then go back to the computer.
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Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Speaking of which:
———–
Elon Musk Builds a Machine to Download Our Brain and Personalities
Tesla CEO announced he will be able to start large commercialization of a humanoid robot in 2023.
April 17, 2022
Elon Musk, the wealthiest man in the world, has ambitions for the future of humanity.
And the whimsical and visionary CEO of Tesla (TSLA) – Get Tesla Inc Report seems in a hurry to realize this vision.
What the wealthiest man in the world has in the boxes is likely to raise the hair of more than one of his detractors. Above all, it risks raising ethical questions. The billionaire says it will soon be possible to upload your brain abilities into humanoid robots.
“Could you imagine that one day we would be able to download our human brain capacity into an Optimus?”, Mathias Döpfner, the CEO of Business Insider’s parent company, Axel Springer, asked Musk in a recent interview.
Optimus is a robot Tesla introduced in 2021.
“I think it is possible,” Musk responded.
“Which would be a different way of eternal life, because we would download our personalities into a bot,” Döpfner continued.
….
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Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
I could use a new body. My present one is showing signs of wear.
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Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
I’d love to download into an electric dirt bike.
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Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
If I lived in Philadelphia, which is restoring indoor masking rules, even though masks do next to nothing to prevent catching Covid, I’d certainly be looking to move.
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Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
4 years ago
St George is a nice place however it looks like they will not be able to handle the growth they have gotten. This will be the story across a big chunk of the southwest over the next few years. These places simply are not sustainable. We had a city on the north California coast where residents ran out of water last year. People that had moved there from metro Bay Area and other places were shocked that water simply stopped flowing to some homes. Restaurants, small businesses and hotels stopped letting visitors use their bathrooms and the city setup port-a-potties on the street.
St. George Council warns stalled water supply could put brakes on ‘growth economy’
Written by Mori Kessler
March 11, 2022
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Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Casual_Observer2020
“We had a city on the north California coast where residents ran out of water last year. People that had moved there from metro Bay Area and other places were shocked that water simply stopped flowing to some homes. Restaurants, small businesses and hotels stopped letting visitors use their bathrooms and the city setup port-a-potties on the street.”
Mendocino, CA.
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MPO45
MPO45
4 years ago
Reply to  Casual_Observer2020
Great article. Perhaps the government can hire people to spit into the lake to fill it up high enough to generate electricity. oh the irony.
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Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  Casual_Observer2020
Sometimes I feel that these areas without water will end up looking like a Mad Max movie.
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Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Tank Girl, maybe?
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Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
I prefer Jet Girl.
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Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
4 years ago
I wouldn’t want to live near Vegas, southern Utah or Arizona or parts of California that rely on water sources that are disappearing. All three are going to be cut off from their water supplies soon. I think we will see historic droughts in the west that force people to move permanently back to areas with permanent sources of water east of the Rockies.
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Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Casual_Observer2020
Definitely want to live near a clean river where you can fetch/divert your own water if necessary.
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MPO45
MPO45
4 years ago
Reply to  Casual_Observer2020
Agree 100%. Only fools move to deserts and with climate change there will be fewer and fewer places to live. Florida will be taking hits from hurricanes that will likely be Cat 5 more often than in the past if climate models are to be predicted. Insurance rates will skyrocket for Florida let alone the severe flooding over the next few decades.
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Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
4 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
Yes. I read another major insurer is leaving Florida this year prior to hurricane season. Homeowners have gotten letters saying their policies will not be renewed. The same has happen to people in fire-prone areas in the west.
I think mass migrations will be the norm soon and it won’t be because of Covid but because of droughts in the southwest.
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Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
Reply to  Casual_Observer2020
Lack of water and the permanent danger of forest fires. I know a place that has plenty of water (lake), but you realize the most prevalent tree is ponderosa pine, and they all seem to have seen fire in recent memory.
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Siliconguy
Siliconguy
4 years ago
Reply to  Maximus_Minimus
Ponderosa pines are fire trees, they have thick bark that is resistant to burning precisely because they evolved in an environment prone to burning. Lodge pole pines have cones that only open after a fire reseeding the forest because they have thin bark.
The western ecosystems evolved to burn. This is normal. The twentieth century was abnormally wet. The climate zone is returning to the mean.
Light reading;
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Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
Reply to  Siliconguy
The story isn’t about the Ponderosa pine, it is about forest fires. The pine will survive the fire, but your community or subdivision pushing into virgin forest area might not.
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Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Maximus_Minimus
Build your house out of Ponderosa Pines?
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StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago
Reply to  Casual_Observer2020
If you’re nearly retired, you can get by on not much water. At least if you’re not a golfer nor gardener. Throw enough money and solar power at it, and you can even recycle much of your domestically used water.
Things are trickier for those at an age requiring some viable industry to be near by.
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FromBrussels
FromBrussels
4 years ago
Maybe under the present circumstances , Russia vs criminal , terrorists supporting , warmonger N° 1 bein the fn US of A, and taking into account both’s impressive nuclear capacity, it would definitely make sense to move out of (over)populated cities ….on the other hand, WHERE are all those people going to move to? ….btw, Russia would be a nice option, ain t no lack of anything there, they always survived despite european (and now american) agression…..history ALWAYS repeats itself , if I were young I’ d know what to do….Learn russian in the first place !
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Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
Russia lacks freedom which puts it off the list. Who wants to live in a place that has a habit of putting people in gulags. Nobody learns Russia these days and the Russians have to learn Chinese now, not the other way around.
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FromBrussels
FromBrussels
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Yeah, I ve noticed how freedom is evolving in our police states…… In autumn, with the next so called p(l)andemic, you ll probably see what s going on ,I say probably, for the odds are that your 4th one (already got it ?) might ve made you deluded for fn once and for all……Be happy, don t worry, you re protected … LOL!
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Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
Your police state you mean. Wait till Putin puts Ramzan Kadyrov as head of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. He showed how to really control a population and he will take what he learned in Chechnya and apply it in Russia. Lenin chose a Georgian, Stalin, to do his dirty work and Putin will choose Kadyrov, a Chechen, to do his. History repeats especially in Russia.
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StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
“Who wants to live in a place that has a habit of putting people in gulags.”
The same ones who wants to live in a place that has a habit of putting people in gulags Supermax’ and Gitmos, one would suppose.
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Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels

No lack of anything but flush toilets and potato for traitor! You sing Putins song but Russian peoples know you are a spy who traded his Russian pride for a toilet e-mails!

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Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
4 years ago
Looks like the data from this post may be a bit outdated.
4 charts show how fast everyone is flocking back to big cities
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Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  Casual_Observer2020
Your data lags by >9 months as well though, written up Aug 2021.
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Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
I believe, covid forced WFH combined with sky high housing prices has started the trend. The sky high housing prices have nothing to do with covid: they are mad made. Now, that WFH is turning into partial office work, there is anecdotal evidence, this has upended some people’s plans.
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