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Real Hourly Wages Dive Again in March, Negative for 13 of Last 15 Months

Hourly wage data from BLS, chart and real calculations by Mish via St. Louis Fed (Fred).

Key Points

  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.8 percent from February to March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. 
  • This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 1.2 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
  • For all workers, real wages declined for the 13th time in 15 months.
  • Real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees decreased 0.9 percent from February to March, seasonally adjusted. This result stems from a 0.4-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 1.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
  • For production and nonsupervisory workers, real wages declined for the 11th time in the last 15 months. 

Real Hourly Wages by Month

Hourly wage data from BLS, chart and real calculations by Mish via St. Louis Fed (Fred).

The BLS says the decline for production and nonsupervisory workers is 0.9 percent in March. I calculate a decline of 0.97 percent. There is a small rounding issue somewhere. 

I take the seasonally-adjusted change in Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees, Total Private, Dollars per Hour, and subtract the seasonally-adjusted change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers: All Items in U.S. City Average.

Fred does the calculation for me (It’s simply a-b). There is a small rounding error somewhere.

Year-Over-Year Real Wages 

Hourly wage data from BLS, chart and real calculations by Mish 

Year-Over-Year Real Wages

  • Production: Year-over year, I calculate a decline in real wages for production and nonsupervisory workers of 2.42 percent. The BLS reports 2.4%
  • All Workers: Year-over year, I calculate a decline in real wages for all workers of 2.77 percent. The BLS reports 2.7%

Year-over-year real wages have declined for 12 consecutive months.

CPI Rips Higher to 8.5 Percent From a Year Ago, the Most Since 1981

Consumer Price Index data from BLS chart by Mish

The CPI is a key input to real wages. 

For discussion of the CPI in March, please see CPI Rips Higher to 8.5 Percent From a Year Ago, the Most Since 1981

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

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20 Comments
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Oldest Most Voted
Sunriver
Sunriver
4 years ago
Factor in true rental/housing costs and real wages may be more like negative 8% for each of the past 2 years. The Boomers got theirs. The Millenials will get negative theirs. Fundamental will eventually kick in and deflation will pervade the economy. It may be 2025 or later before Fiat collapses upon itself, but fundamentals always win out.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
Wait until the public and private pension plans and 401Ks go belly up. That’s when SHTF. This is just ‘noise.’ A few bucks here, a few bucks there, so you don’t drive to Starbucks for the latte.
thimk
thimk
4 years ago
Highest inflation since 1981 , suck it up buttercup , we gotta get the murderous dictator and pure thug . Sanction away; its patriotic. Ration coupons on deck . ////s
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  thimk
Exactly, comrade! Where is potato? Is no potato!
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Sure n’ begorrah you should’na depend on potatoes!
davidyjack
davidyjack
4 years ago
Reply to  thimk
While the economic sanctions on Putin are contributing to inflation, there are many other factors as well.
India has 5.56% inflation in 2021 and UK also had similar amount before the Russian invasion.
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
4 years ago
The definition of wealth is changing to having a job you enjoy.
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Bam_Man
Bam_Man
4 years ago
This is Your Standard of Living – dying a “death-by-a-thousand-cuts”.
P.S. When this goes on long enough and enough people (some already are) decide that it’s not worth exchanging their labor for the near-worthless-non-interest-earning “money”, hyperinflation will be right around the corner.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  Bam_Man
Are they gonna learn to photosynthesize or something? People won’t starve willingly.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
They will get gov’t handouts, likely a gov’t basic income by printing dollars. The situation worsens. Bam_ban is right.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
I don’t see that happening at a time when jobs can’t be filled. Gov wants people generating taxable income.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
A purely temporary surge for the same reason as inventory is building. Crappy estimates of growth/business conditions, made worse by covid effects.
To be accurate I think Bam_BAm is right but for the wrong reasons. Leaving the workforce will reduce demand (less money to spend) and supply (less labor so cost goes up, but will be replaced by imports)
Bam_Man
Bam_Man
4 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
“will be replaced by imports” – paid for with what?
More fake “money”?
Bam_Man
Bam_Man
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
“We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us.” = Hyperinflation.
kiers
kiers
4 years ago
Reply to  Bam_Man
“They pretend to represent us, we pretend to care about and vote for them” = Demockracy.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
4 years ago
Reply to  Bam_Man
No.. Actually it will be a deflationary collapse like 2008/2009. We had a couple of years of higher than normal inflation just before the last two collapses. All for the same reasons in 2006/2007 – higher oil prices and expensive real estate increasingly fewer people could afford. Unless they plan to start dropping money from the sky to only poor people, this time will be no different (eventually).
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
Read the last sentence and give it a check mark.The economic environment is very different to 2007-8.
Homework: calculate the Fed’s balance sheet when market yields/discount rate increase to 8% from near zero$ (anything over 3 yrs is enough). Can you say theoretical bankruptcy.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
4 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
The economic environment isn’t that different The Fed balance sheet is. I think we get deflation AND Bretton woods Iii this time.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago
Getting poorer, has always been part and parcel of becoming a third world country.
Every country which has followed the Peronist model of jingoistic “public/connected-class-so-called-private ‘partnership’ “, have experienced exactly the same. Didn’t Einstein say something about persisting in believing this time would somehow be different?

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