Biden’s Way Forward
It’s 4th down and 10 on the 40 yard line. Biden opts for a Hail Mary pass.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent a Purposely Leaked Letter to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani stating the way forward.
In an undated letter from Secretary of State Tony Blinken to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, the top diplomat informs Ghani that the Biden administration is “immediately pursuing a high-level diplomatic effort” to “accelerate peace talks” between the Afghan government and the Taliban. To that end, Blinken says the administration has prepared a “roadmap for the peace process.”
The second leaked document is that roadmap: an eight-page “discussion draft of a peace agreement” designed “to jumpstart Afghanistan Peace Negotiations between the Islamic Republic [of Afghanistan] and the Taliban.”
The proposal has three sections: 1) guiding principles for Afghanistan’s constitution and the future of the Afghan state; 2) terms for governing the country during a transitional period and a roadmap for making constitutional changes and addressing security and governance matters; and 3) terms for a permanent ceasefire.
Purposely Leaked Letters
Biden is fed up with the progress in Afghanistan and the US’ never ending commitment.
Hail Mary Pass
Should both sides agree to this or a similar peace plan by May 1, Biden would have the political room to withdraw all troops from the country. Or, if there was genuine movement toward a deal but no agreement, Washington would let the Taliban know it was going to stay until the group struck a deal.
“This gives them the space to argue it both ways,” said Jonathan Schroden, an expert on the war at CNA, a nonprofit research and analysis organization in Arlington, Virginia. But, he noted, the chances that the gambit succeeds are pretty slim. “This is a Hail Mary pass.”
The Biden administration is pushing a high-risk, high-reward option that may still result in keeping US troops in harm’s way beyond the May 1 deadline. It’s unclear it’ll pay off.
Endless 4th Downs
Like Bush, Obama, and Trump, Biden is threatening withdrawal.
This is only a “Hail Mary” pass if there are truly consequences of a dropped pass.
Is this really the 4th down with no 5th down or 4th down replay coming?
Under three previous administrations, we had an endless set of 4th downs all of which kept US troops in Afghanistan for 20 years.
An Overtime Gamble
“A sustainable agreement cannot be predicated on the permanent presence of US troops. The small chance that a political settlement is reached exposes the Biden administration to considerable risk. It’s the equivalent of gambling.”
If a political agreement is reached, do not expect anyone in Afghanistan to honor it. Meanwhile, US troops would still remain.
Curiously, the gamble is the the “Hail Mary” pass succeeds, tying the score thereby forcing the game into overtime for the nth time.
Of course it could also be an idle threat by Biden, just as we saw idle threats by Trump.
Declare Victory in Afghanistan and Get the Hell Out Now!
On March 5, I proposed Declare Victory in Afghanistan and Get the Hell Out Now!
Assuming the “Hail Mary” pass fails, Biden will have a more politically correct option of leaving.
Agreement or not, the US should leave anyway. If that is indeed Biden’s intent, then his plan is a smart one. Otherwise, here comes another 5th down.
Mish
There is something startlingly ironic about using the Christian term “Hail Mary” and its tactical implications to describe colonial nation-building policy options in a Muslim country. After all, what is a “Hail Mary” pass but a “bomb?” Perfect!
Perhaps instead of a “Hail Mary” Biden should call a “Stanford Band Play.” But when you think about it, US policy in the Middle East more closely resembles a “Stanford Band Play,” with its endless circus-like chaos, endless laterals, fumbles and missed tackles, and frantic disorganization, culminating in the poor innocent trombone player getting stampeded by a linebacker.
More like the Titanic Philharmonic Play….not sure if the trombone player made it out alive.
Afghanistan will go back to being ruled by their Islamist extremist Taliban, and we can bomb them into the stone age if it becomes necessary. No need to stay. Tired tropes like “making the world safe for democracy” don’t really apply in a country like that. We’ve been there 20 years too long.
I hope we pull out of the middle east altogether. Fat chance we will. Too much money to be made by slimy insiders by staying there.
This would allow the administration to focus on wrapping up Obama’s work in Syria.
It is generally the establishment Dems and Republicans that want to stay in forever wars like Afghanistan, not the soldiers.
I’m sure the Afghans would be crestfallen to see the Americans go. As nice as it sounds, I’ll believe it when I see it.
One very interesting question will be what happens to poppy production if the US exits. The Taliban had eradicated most of it by 2001 and I hope they’ll do it again. Intentionally fostering heroin addiction is one of the worst things Uncle Sam has ever done, a policy that should live in infamy.
Hectares of poppies 2020:
Afghanistan 163,000
Myanmar 33,100
Mexico 28,000
Other countries *44,745
Good investment opportunities in Myanmar and Mexico coming up….
The US will never truly leave. Humans will be replaced with drones. The base will remain and just become a drone base.
This is Vietnam all over again. Biden knows Afghanistan is lost, the moment we pull out the Taliban will overrun the Afghan govt and be in charge again. Nation building is a fool’s errand. This is only about delaying the inevitable.
Perhaps good intentions, but Afghanistan is one of Trump’s failures. Biden, or his proxy, would like to remove it as a potential campaign issue. Life for the rational is much, much better now, I expect it is not sustainable without outside influence. It’s not the Taliban that needs to stand down, it’s the citizens that need to stand up.
For the US, it’s a failed Neocon pipe dream. No need to double down, again.
Trumps failure? What did Trump do that Obama didn’t?
Biden doesn’t believe troops should be in Afghanistan. This is another case of a President up against a military arguing for the opposite
Maybe covert and special forces. Other than that, no.
At least nice to see an MO.