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Credit Card and Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge in the Second Quarter

Over ten percent of credit card outstanding debt is over 90 days delinquent. Banks will be curtailing credit.

This a second look at some interesting charts from the New York Fed Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit.

Over 10 Percent of Credit Card Debt is Seriously Delinquent

Serious Delinquency for Auto Loans by Age

Serious Delinquency for Credit Cards by Age

Lenders Took More Risk

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) reports Credit Card Delinquencies are Higher than in 2019 Because Lenders Took on More Risk.

After falling during the pandemic, the share of consumers with a delinquent credit card has increased rapidly since 2021 and is now higher than in 2019. While consumers with delinquencies clearly show signs of struggling, news reports have taken the rising delinquency rate as a sign that financial distress is becoming more widespread, suggesting underlying weakness in the U.S. economy. We show that rather than being a sign of broader distress, this increase in delinquencies is explained by a substantial increase in the riskiness of recently issued credit cards.

Delinquencies have been concentrated among credit cards originated in the last few years and we show these credits cards were much riskier than in previous years. Two factors explain this extra risk: First, lending standards loosened a bit in 2021 and 2022 judging by a decline in credit scores at origination. At the same time, pandemic aid and forced savings pushed average credit scores up sharply. Effectively, by not tightening significantly, lenders were originating cards much further down the risk spectrum. We show this shifting risk composition explains why delinquencies are higher than in 2019.

Overall delinquencies increased rapidly over the last few years because the credit cards originated in 2021, 2022, and 2023 have gone delinquent much more rapidly than credit cards originated in other years. About 8 percent of credit cards originated in 2016 became delinquent about four years after origination. Meanwhile, the 2021 vintage reached an 8 percent delinquency rate just after 2 years while the 2022 vintage reached 8 percent after less than two years and 2023 has followed 2022 closely so far. (The 2020 vintage is in between the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic vintages reaching 8 percent delinquency after 3 years.) At the same time, credit cards originated in earlier years have not seen a similar increase in delinquencies in recent years.

Cards Originated in 2021 Through 2023 Were Riskier than Before

Figure 3 [Above Image] shows the credit score of new credit cards originated each month and the average credit score of all consumers on the left axis. During the Great Recession, lending standards tightened sharply, so that consumers with a new credit card had average scores above 720, even while the average credit score among all consumers was around 690. As a result, the average credit score rank for consumers with a new credit card was above 55 percent from 2008 to 2014, as shown on Figure 3’s right axis. A consumer’s credit score rank is what percentage of all consumers with a score have a score lower than that consumer.

Credit stress is rising just as layoffs are increasing and it’s getting much harder to find a job if you lose one.

That newer issued credit is failing faster again suggests it is renters and generation Z that is most impacted.

But it’s not just Millennials and Zoomers. Delinquencies are rising in all age groups, just more steeply in age groups 39 and younger.

Recession Debate

On August 9, I discussed why things are worse than they look.

If you missed it, please see Recession Debate: Citing the Sahm Rule, WSJ’s Greg Ip Says No Recession

Recessions frequently start with positive job growth and positive industrial production.

And jobs are highly likely to be seriously overstated. My calculations of pending negative revisions is similar to that of Bloomberg’s chief economist.

For discussion, please see Expect the BLS to Revise Job Growth Down by 730,000 in 2023, More This Year

If you think jobs are strong, you are very mistaken.

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Mish

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64 Comments
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Jeremy
Jeremy
1 year ago

I’d also like to point out that transition into delinquency is not a very honest number. It takes the number of loans transitioning into delinquency over the last 12 months, but gives no context. How many transitioned out of delinquency for a net flow? How many were ten day debtor errors from not setting up auto withdrawal correctly? How many were merchants failing to follow auto withdrawal instructions, and showing their error as a debtor’s missed payment? How many of the previously delinquent were written off? What is the total delinquency balance?

Jeremy
Jeremy
1 year ago

Mish, I believe you are misinterpreting the NY Fed report. Their definitions are very poorly written, so who knows what they mean by “Percent of balance 90+ days delinquent by loan type”. It is not likely the total % of loans delinquent, but a % of the delinquent balance or some other indicator of the direction delinquency is moving. Cross referencing this survey with other places that provide more hard data, it appears severely delinquency rates are much lower than 10%. The Fed’s
Charge-Off and Delinquency Rates on Loans and Leases at Commercial Banks, which reports actual delinquency rates at major institutions, shows total credit card delinquency rate of 3.23%.

If cross referencing isn’t enough, common sense should be. A 10% severe delinquency rate would mean we are in the middle of a prolonged economic disaster. Not heading into one, but fully in it, been in it a good while, been shoveling the turd to get out of it.

Rjohnson
Rjohnson
1 year ago

30% rates lol. I hope everyone sticks it in their backside. Big dif between responsibility and legalized loan sharks.

In other news my property taxes were hiked 50% last year and now they’re trying to raise them again.

Go to hell Fed.

Avery2
Avery2
1 year ago

How far away from Student Loans is this?

Who is the sucker at the poker table?

Remember Hank “Tanks In the Streets!” Paulson?

Last edited 1 year ago by Avery2
Gwako Mole
Gwako Mole
1 year ago

are the creditors poor credit risks or have they been subjected to usurious terms and rates via a credit card/banking cartel? The poor have always needed credit, but the price of credit has gone from fantasyland to insanity.

I get weekly credit card offers, and open them just so I can laugh when I read the incredible interest rates and late charges. Then I burn them and laugh again.

Its good to work hard and have considerable savings, as the best advice my old man ever gave me (other than never let a mechanic work on your car)
was “save you money when your young so you can tell them to kiss your ass when you grow old.” Think I’ll find someone on Etsy to put that into needlepoint so I can frame it.

Last edited 1 year ago by Gwako Mole
David
David
1 year ago
Reply to  Gwako Mole

I think it’s called FU money. Check out the scene from The Gambler (2014) – F*** You Scene (7/10) | Movieclips: https://youtu.be/XamC7-Pt8N0?si=g7cH238suKNaZlnN. Enjoy!

Gwako Mole
Gwako Mole
1 year ago
Reply to  David

my old man told me that in 1971, think it predates the movies…

Bam_Man
Bam_Man
1 year ago

I wonder how many people are continuing to make the auto loan payment, but not the insurance.

Laura
Laura
1 year ago
Reply to  Bam_Man

That’s why YOU need to make sure you have sufficient coverage in case you need to file a claim for uninsured/underinsured motorist.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  Laura

Especially if you live in Florida.

This state has a notorious amount of uninsured motorists due to the homestead exemption laws (you can’t be sued for your home).

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Bam_Man

Many states now require proof of insurance to renew vehicle license tags.

Fast Eddy
Fast Eddy
1 year ago

Meanwhile … China gets more f789ed by the day…

Foreign investors have pulled a record £12bn out of China in an economic blow for President Xi Jinping.

Fears over the future of the world’s second largest economy meant foreign investors withdrew $14.8bn (£11.6bn) between April and June, data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange shows.

It was only the second time more foreign money has been withdrawn from China than invested since records began in 1998, and was a massive swing from the net $10bn pumped into the country during the first three months of the year.

It came as the Saudi-led Organisation for Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) cut its forecast for oil demand growth, citing concerns over the Chinese economy.

Foreign direct investment in China last turned negative in the autumn of 2023, when investors pulled out $12bn. Chinese companies also invested a record $71bn overseas between April and June, up 80pc year on year. 

Combined, this meant China suffered a record net outflow of $86bn in direct investment. 

https://archive.ph/6PCsG

Last edited 1 year ago by Fast Eddy
Micheal Engel
Micheal Engel
1 year ago
Reply to  Fast Eddy

Canada exclusively served the US. No more. The Saudis have a new competitor : TMX pipeline from Canada. If MBS need some help He will not get it from Xi. There is only one address : the US. The US stirred troubles in Kursk to keep Putin away.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  Micheal Engel

That pipeline even at max capacity only has a potential of 1 million barrels a day. It’s not operating anywhere close to that.

Even 1 million barrels is only a fraction of China’s daily needs and they aren’t the only buyer of that oil.

Last edited 1 year ago by TexasTim65
Micheal Engel
Micheal Engel
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

The main subject of my comment is that the US is the main valve in the ME and about the Kursk.

dr.odyssey
dr.odyssey
1 year ago
Reply to  Fast Eddy

Japan’s Former Minister of Internal Affairs Kazuhiro Haraguchi began by addressing the grief and loss felt by families who have lost loved ones who were coerced into taking the mRNA COVID jab. With a deep sense of sincerity, he extended his condolences and took responsibility for the failings of those in power. I apologize to all of you. So many have died, and they shouldn’t have,” he said.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/japanese-leader-apologizes-unvaccinated-vaccines-killing-loved-ones/5859677

Micheal Engel
Micheal Engel
1 year ago

C/C balances $1T x 0.2 = $200B/y + late fees > $76B in the bin. Same with auto loans. The auto loans recycle bin is the repossess truck to sell somebody else, hypothecation the car.
C/C bins means collection agencies, no repo or hypo.

Last edited 1 year ago by Micheal Engel
Micheal Engel
Micheal Engel
1 year ago
Reply to  Micheal Engel

Auto loans delinquencies never were serious as mortgages and c/c loans.
Auto loans osc in a trading range for twenty years.

Wisdom Seeker
Wisdom Seeker
1 year ago
Reply to  Micheal Engel

This is deeply incorrect, because the vast majority of CC balances are paid in full each month, after the statement balance is generated but before interest starts to be charged. Actual interest payments on CC debt are far, far smaller than $200B/y.

Blurtman
Blurtman
1 year ago

Why not forgive these types of loans, too?

Gwako Mole
Gwako Mole
1 year ago
Reply to  Blurtman

slippery slope can’t forgive debt for the poor only the debt and unpaid loans of the Too big to fail (or to payback debt) banks is possible in the new inverse socialism.

Stu
Stu
1 year ago

– Over 10% percent of CC debt is over 90 days delinquent. Banks will be curtailing credit.
> Like I have be saying, Banks will lend until they can’t, and people will borrow until they can’t. That time looks at hand…

– News reports have taken the rising delinquency rate as a sign that financial distress is becoming more widespread, suggesting underlying weakness in the U.S. economy.
> Man our MSM is right on top of things as usual I see. Wait for it… The MSM (and banks too it looks like) just now figured out that “there is underlying weakness in Our Economy” what a smart lot these supposed news people are huh…

– Two factors explain this extra risk: First, lending standards loosened a bit in 2021 and 2022 judging by a decline in credit scores at origination.
> So 1 Factor is Bank Lending Incompetence, Got It!

– At the same time, pandemic aid and forced savings pushed average credit scores up sharply.
> So 2 Factor is Bank Record Keeping Incompetence, Got It!

>> So I’m confused a bit, forgive me, but where is the Borrower at fault here? Why do they owe back pay, and increased charges for being late? It was Clearly The Banks Fault, and not the Borrower? The Banks screwed up and over lent to incompetent sources, so who is to blame again? The Banks I assume, and they should take the risk, eat the losses, and pay closer attention to whom the allow to borrow. Looks like a nice “Class Action” to Me!!!

– Credit stress is rising just as layoffs are increasing and it’s getting much harder to find a job if you lose one.
> Let me guess, the Banks were not at all aware of this, when lending out money?

– That newer issued credit is failing faster again suggests it is renters and generation Z that is most impacted.
> Gen Z is the New Borrow and Spend Generation. Look at the numbers over the past few years. Oh, my bad, The Banks were also unaware of this too… My bad once again.

– And jobs are highly likely to be seriously overstated. > Do Banks know this? Just checking…

– If you think jobs are strong, you are very mistaken. > Banks Do! Banks Do! Obviously, as they Keep Lending!!!

Our Lending Institutions are just printing and lending by the looks of it. Keep the party going I suppose, until it can’t! So our Government just created a few thousand MORE Debt Slaves to rule over. More people to control, through finances, it’s the new thing. Used to be through Home Debt Anchors, but now they found it easier, by tossing cash at them, and they seem to be taking the bait, literally!!!

Richard F
Richard F
1 year ago
Reply to  Stu

All fair points you make.
Banks lent out by relaxing standards as Uncle Sammy stepped up and backed the consumer with Covid stimulus.

Those funds have now been exhausted and without another stimulus Banks are pulling back as they are going to take hits to bottom line via consumer defaults.

Banks are here to make money. It’s just Business.
Since the pull back in lending is underway and the whole economy is based upon demand creation via lending there is no way to avoid the Recession.

Fed expects this, they play stupid, but that is to cover for policy initiatives.
Banks know this as well.

How to know this is so? From personal experience I had built a House then sold it a couple Years later and at closing walked out with more then the Bank got back from their Loan.
Bank attorney was actually upset that this happened in so small a time period. In short Banks are only interested in Money the rest of their presentation about helpful partners and friendly Banker is marketing.

Stu
Stu
1 year ago
Reply to  Richard F

I agree with you, but I am still perplexed by the Borrower being responsible for faulty lending? If you are honest and your paperwork is up to date and accurate, and the bank over-lends to you, as your risk factors are too high for the approved amount, then why are they NOT responsible?

Are they hiding behind laws that protect them from setting up bad loans sure to default, and still get to hold the borrower responsible? Seems we need new regulations if that’s the case…

Richard F
Richard F
1 year ago
Reply to  Stu

I look at Banks like a person takes life Insurance. Their business model is based upon an actuary model.
Many unknowns as to actual outcome of economy. So the Banks when they put out a lending portfolio makes some assumptions about getting repaid.
Some loans get repaid in full. Most get rolled over or increased. Some will go to default and be subject to collection.

Since the Big banks and most others have direct access to Fed window they have someplace to turn to if Business actuary models do not pan out.
If the Fed goes into stimulus mode Banks know there is high probability that there will be a couple of years where economy will be flush so default rates are going to fall.
Fewer defaults and collections means more profit, so they can stretch the lending limits. The whole Banking industry gets the word, make loans and they do.

Then comes the inevitable over exuberance and consequences set in. That Lending portfolio which was getting high fives from Wall street starts to take some hits. Inflation rises from too much created money getting lent out. Becomes a Political problem and the word goes out, this is going to hurt our re-elecion campaign.

Fed starts in with their usual speeches about soft landings and we got it all covered after all we are the Fed.
So Banks start to slow down lending. Consumers who thought they were going to be just fine discover, hey I am having trouble making the monthlies.

It is just one Big game of musical chairs. Those consumers who thought they were invincible cause the Friendly Local Banker was their best Bud finds out that C suite folks are looking at an actuary model and find that there are problems with over exposure to that same consumer.
Somebody has to cover with their personal assets and that is the person least likely to be culpable.

This has been going on forever. Just a new generation gets to find out by ending up sleeping in their soon to be repossessed Car or Van.

Finance is just a different form of going to Las Vegas. It is really up to the Borrower to assess how much risk they want to expose themselves too.

If young and dumb then the first time this hits they get a rude education.
Latter on if a person recovers and still want to play the Bankers game they can do so just be more cautious.
The only way to beat them is to be willing to sweat for gains. Stay out of the grubby reach of their hands and live frugally at first building equity on your own.

Richard F
Richard F
1 year ago
Reply to  Richard F

Add: In my early contractor days I was forever getting stiffed by Builders going bankrupt. In the State where I reside Banks come before contractors and supply houses over at the Bankruptcy courthouse.

One deep recession I had to find work in another State on West Coast.
That state had the tradespeople and Supply Houses come before the Banks over at the Courthouse. Well hot dam those Bankers made sure the Trades and supply houses were paid in full, even for partial completions on a once per month basis. Bankers came by and I had to sign an affidavit that I had gotten paid. this before the Bank released funds to the Builder.

So yes Legal structures greatly affect who ends getting to hold the Bag of Shit when things go belly up.

Not hard to understand why legislatures write the type of laws that are on the Books.

Richard F
Richard F
1 year ago
Reply to  Richard F

second add: To all those posters who continue to believe Government has got your back, hah hah hah……….
Yeh i know, over in romper room everything is just fine and dandy.

Stu
Stu
1 year ago
Reply to  Richard F

TY for that analysis! I am jaded against banks over lending on purpose, and gleefully coming to repossess. Not me or family, but some I have known. I do think new regulations should be done to protect the borrower from being over lent to. Just a quick look at the ledger would tell you if they were a higher risk than appropriate, and that should fall on the Lender! I find it egregious to over lend to someone with a high degree of default as soon as they leave the bank. Thanks again!

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Stu

With the current state of youth’s financial understandings, loaning them anything is over lending.

Richard F
Richard F
1 year ago
Reply to  Stu

Having Lived thru what I posted my perspective is going to be different then many.
We both are observing that old bull shitometer has been pegged at the Top for quite some time.
As Jeremy Irons actor in his role as CEO of a major financial concern in movie Margin Call said, he got paid the big bucks to make one call, when the music stops.
He did not hear any music so he put the Firm on a position liquidation before everyone else to save the company.

Bank sector remains a sacred Cow and i try not to get gored by its’ Horns.
I also do not play with Rattle Snakes.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Richard F

Instead of building equity which must be sold to someone to be useful one can simply accumulate cash. Heaps of cash and liquid cash equivalents.

Richard F
Richard F
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker

If a person has few bucks to start with other then what they can scrimp together working for someone else, that same person can use their youth via sweat equity.
There is always someone who has Bucks and uses that money to Buy the Time of someone who all they have is time cause they are broke.
That is how an economy works. Two people come together and each has something to offer that the other wants.
So if a person produces a Product of value using their Time they can then convert that item into cash via sales. Do it a few occurrences and build a nest egg.
Real Estate is a great vehicle as much of equity produced can be shielded from Taxman via ownership and rolling it over into another project. Perfectly Legal and encouraged to do so by Tax Law.

Wisdom Seeker
Wisdom Seeker
1 year ago
Reply to  Stu

It is NOT the case that over 90% of CC debt is over 90 days delinquent. There’s a serious conceptual or reporting error behind that graph. The other graphs and datasets that are available show far lower delinquency rates.

Fast Eddy
Fast Eddy
1 year ago

FINANCIAL MARKETS REACHED A “SINGULARITY” NO ONE WANTS TO DEAL WITH
https://justdario.com/2024/08/financial-markets-reached-a-singularity-no-one-wants-to-deal-with/

There is no way to deal fix it… that’s why they continue doing what they have been doing for two decades….

This is why the best anyone can do is to prepare themselves for the moment, not a matter of if, when the whole system won’t be sustainable any more and it will all implode. Only at that point, similar to 2008, there will be no escape from taking action. But beware, today the magnitude of damages, because of all I described above, will be much greater, and your future will depend on your ability to be one of those standing on top of the rubble and not underneath.

Indeed — there is no other option but implosion.

Tick Tock….

Fast Eddy
Fast Eddy
1 year ago

The lower the concentration — the more rock you have to bust up and smelt…. that costs money… that drives inflation…

Analyzing only copper mines, the average ore grade has decreased approximately by 25% in just ten years. In that same period, the total energy consumption has increased at a higher rate than production (46% energy increase over 30% production increase).

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/289986936.pdf

Fast Eddy
Fast Eddy
1 year ago
Reply to  Fast Eddy

There’s a lot of copper still in the earth. It is estimated that copper concentration in the crust is about 0.005 to 0.007%. Given the overall volume of Earth’s crust, that is a lot. If we could extract all the copper it would keep us going for millions of years at present levels of demand. But the reality is that most of that copper is at too low a concentration to be viable for mining. Most copper is mined or extracted as copper sulfide from large open pit mines in porphyry copper deposits that contain between 0.4 and 1% of copper. Anything below 0.3% is not economical even with the most modern extraction tools available.

Some of those deposits are very large. For example the Great Copper Mountain was a mine in Falun, Sweden that was open for nearly a millennium before it finally closed in 1992. During that period it was the main producer of copper in Europe and when at peak production in the 17th century it produced two-thirds of Europe’s copper

However, finding such large deposits of copper is not an easy task, and all the really easy deposits have already been found.

https://www.rockcollector.co.uk/editorial0412.htm

This drives inflation — and destroys growth — the Central Banks have responded with epic levels of stimulus… otherwise the global economy would have collapsed.

Alas stimulus is not really an option now … if they drop interest rates significantly and pour easy money on this situation — hyperinflation will result

We are on the precipice

Fast Eddy
Fast Eddy
1 year ago

The end of growth is upon us:

The enormous expansion in the material economy since the symbolic date of 1776 has been powered by an abundance of low-cost energy from coal, oil and natural gas. But supplies of fossil fuels, though enormous, aren’t infinite. In a process known as depletion, we have, quite naturally, used lowest-cost energy resources first, leaving costlier alternatives for a ‘later’ which has now arrived.

The measurement of decline

In short, what we’ve been witnessing has been a gradual deceleration of the fossil fuel impetus which powered the rise of the industrial economy. For reasons which needn’t be revisited here, we have no complete replacement for the energy value hitherto sourced from oil, gas and coal.

The best way to track this progression is by reference to the Energy Cost of Energy. Whenever energy is accessed for our use, some of this energy is always consumed in the access process. This ECoE proportion is, by definition, not available for any other economic purpose. SEEDS calculates material prosperity as the financial equivalent of the surplus (ex-cost) energy available to the system.

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2024/08/12/286-whatever-happened-to-progress/

Micheal Engel
Micheal Engel
1 year ago

1) 7% c/c balances are delinquent 90 days plus : that’s normal. Well below 2009 level.The zero rates era was abnormal. $1,081B x 0.07 = $76B. c/c originated in 2020, 2021 and 2022 are in the biggest troubles, in contrast to 2007.
2) When oil was minus $40 many young people started small businesses. They became contractors : carpenters, gardners, electricians…buying F-150 and Transit Vans. Small businesses are struggling. Auto loans serious delinquency (first chart, green) is 3%, approaching 2009 peak level of 3.75% Used car prices tumbled 50% after the bubble. In 2009 people lost their houses before losing their cars. Some slept in their cars.
3) Scores, the last chart is fascinating, hard to crack. The starting point was in 2007. The mean improved from 690 to 715. The upper tranches and the just before origination, prior to Oct 2008, jumped from 690 to 740 before the plunge.
4) Overall : mortgages, student loans, c/c loans and HE revolving (ex auto loans) are well below 2009 peak delinquency percentage of balances.

Kermudjin
Kermudjin
1 year ago

“But it’s not just Millennials and Zoomers. Delinquencies are rising in all age groups, just more steeply in age groups 39 and younger.”

the CFPB says, “We show that rather than being a sign of broader distress, this increase in delinquencies is explained by a substantial increase in the riskiness of recently issued credit cards.”

Somehow, American suddenly became dumber in ‘21?

“Yes—Because of those greedy banks! But we feel their pain and as their guardian angels must punish the lenders who keep them afloat in a sea of troubles!”

Jay Powell silently concurs. Who, me? Rich people needed that free money so they could ride the Nasdaq to new highs!! Who cares about the peons?

Last edited 1 year ago by Kermudjin
Gwako Mole
Gwako Mole
1 year ago
Reply to  Kermudjin

Let them eat Stonks, as the French Headless Royal family so famously said, before dying tragically due to a guillotine accident at a selfie event for their latest tour.

Fast Eddy
Fast Eddy
1 year ago

The six one-offs that drove growth and pulled the global economy out of bubble-bust recessions for the past 30 years have all reversed or dissipated. Absent these one-off drivers, the global economy is stumbling off the cliff into a deep recession without any replacement drivers. Colloquially speaking, the global economy is toast.

Here are the six one-offs that won’t be coming back:

1) China’s industrialization.

2) Growth-positive demographics.

3) Low interest rates.

4) Low debt levels.

5) Low inflation.

6) Tech productivity boom.

https://charleshughsmith.substack.com/p/these-six-drivers-are-gone-and-thats

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  Fast Eddy

I like Charles but he’s been spewing global doom and gloom for longer than the decade that I’ve read his columns. His advice about growth on a personal level is spot on but his advice about the global markets has never come close to happening.

#1 and #2 can easily be replaced with India and Africa. Before you say they are too backward, remember China was roughly where they are now back in 1995 when they started their ascent.

No one knows for sure what’s going to happen with #3, #4 and #5. They could become huge issues tomorrow or 10 or 20 years from now or perhaps never (Japan has floundered for almost 40 years and hasn’t collapsed yet).

#6 is the one thing definitely not coming back.

Gwako Mole
Gwako Mole
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

if one compares the million or more years of humans crawling on this dirt ball, against the length of modern history approx 3,000 years, one comes to an inevitable conclusion.

Something about the time since the last ice age is “unique” in that population growth has gone from a few million to 8 billion or more in 10,000 years.

Something reoccuring cause mass human death on a global scale, likely a spaceborne event whether from the sun or the comets or other long orbit projectiles, otherwise we’d have been billions a half a million years ago.

I would consider our time to be close to peak population, in a century people won’t be worrying over inflation or the price of oil. They will be scrambling to survive in an unfriendly environment caused by external forces. We lived in a golden era where a stable climate made agriculture and civilization possible. Enjoy what you have, it could be gone tomorrow..

Not Artificially Intelligent
Not Artificially Intelligent
1 year ago

Something is really screwed up here…

FRED says Large Bank consumer credit card delinquency 90+ rate is only 1.8%.
FRED Series: RCCCBBALDPD90P

Overall delinquency rate on credit card loans is only 3%
(FRED Series: DRCCLACBS)

So how can the 90+ delinquency rate for credit cards be 10% as in the second graph?

Need more precise data sourcing and more detailed explanations of what, exactly, is being plotted.

The “transition rate” graphs should also be explained in more detail, those are annual data and don’t show transitions “out of” delinquency nor the nature of such transitions. It’s possible more people are going delinquent but then being bailed out by refi or HELOC or whatever, rather than going bellly-up.

QTPie
QTPie
1 year ago

Wolf Richter explains how this data is frequently misinterpreted in the august 9th post on his site.

Wisdom Seeker
Wisdom Seeker
1 year ago
Reply to  QTPie

Yes, saw that. Wolf wrote mainly about the “Transition into…” data. But the issue I have is with “Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type”. The problem is in the actual NY Fed Consumer Credit report from which Mish copied/pasted the graphs. The graph in question is on Page 12 of the source report that Mish linked to. That particular report doesn’t give clear description of what might be different vs. the other datasets.

Six000MileYear
Six000MileYear
1 year ago

Some new loan delinquencies are occurring at a faster rate than when Trump was President prior to COVID. New loan delinquencies started rising quickly after Biden was in office for a year. Democrats own those stats.

Ironically, the student loan vote buying scheme is falling apart because the early career crowd is leading car loan and credit card delinquencies.

CaptainCaveman
CaptainCaveman
1 year ago

Biden’s student loan criminality was tantamount to a gigantic stimulus check program. Imagine where all the other economic numbers would be if people still had to pay their student debt.

TeeJay
TeeJay
1 year ago
Reply to  CaptainCaveman

Same with moratoriums on housing foreclosures and evictions

CaptainCaveman
CaptainCaveman
1 year ago
Reply to  TeeJay

Between the Student Loan jubilees, the years of foreclosure and eviction moratoria, and all the buy now pay never schemes…there has been A LOT of stimulus out there keeping the economy afloat for Biden.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  CaptainCaveman

What happened during and after Covid was a giant experiment of what would happen if there was universal UBI.

What we got is exactly what any rational person would expect. No one wanting to work followed by massive inflation when those non-working people spent that free money.

Biden’s presidency and his policies is going to be remembered as one of the worst (if not the worst) ever when it’s viewed in hindsight.

Last edited 1 year ago by TexasTim65
CaptainCaveman
CaptainCaveman
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

They should, but they won’t be because the left writes the history books, controls all the media narratives, and teaches all the young skulls full of mush.

steve
steve
1 year ago

In many states cars over 10 years old can no longer pass inspection thanks to new computer games. Millions of good running used cars will be junked. Many used car buyers lose all.

Mypillow
Mypillow
1 year ago
Reply to  steve

I have a third vehicle that’s a junker and won’t pass inspection for emissions. I drive it anyway as I don’t give a sh*t what the government says. It starts and runs fine.

Top-GUN
Top-GUN
1 year ago
Reply to  steve

“…can no longer pass inspection thanks to new computer games…”
I didn’t know cars played computer games.. what are you talking about???

Gwako Mole
Gwako Mole
1 year ago
Reply to  Top-GUN

computers are in every new car since about 1990. They first appeared to help control fuel injection, they had to monitor exhaust gases and adjust fuel ratios for minimium emissions. these computers now control braking, air bags, dash controls, heat/ac, monitor your driving speed and braking and record it in a black box that can be used after an accident and to sell to insurance companies for rate adjustments etc. really read up this shit isn’t new.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  steve

Move to Florida. There are no yearly inspections here or emission standards.

Patrick
Patrick
1 year ago

Joe Biden : Apres moi, le deluge …

CaptainCaveman
CaptainCaveman
1 year ago
Reply to  Patrick

His student loan and immigration crimes were unbelievably effective can-kickers.

YP_Yooper
YP_Yooper
1 year ago

Just a thought too, Mish, but the financing costs to the card companies are far higher now than they were in the past few years, so as you eloquently describe the consumer situation, the card companies are getting clobbered from their product models and revenue – they are going to have to react as well.

JakeJ
JakeJ
1 year ago
Reply to  YP_Yooper

Yeah, it’s one thing when the banks are getting free money, and quite another thing when the money is no longer free. I wonder how much they will tighten, and how fast.

Gwako Mole
Gwako Mole
1 year ago
Reply to  JakeJ

if this keeps up they might have to modify the compensation packages of the “C” suite. oh my. I beleive hell will freeze over before a bank would cut management salaries and stock options.

JakeJ
JakeJ
1 year ago
Reply to  Gwako Mole

Irrelevant.

Gwako Mole
Gwako Mole
1 year ago
Reply to  JakeJ

how is the cost to run a company irrelevant? Management is a cost of business it is not fixed, it can vary from the 1$ nominal compensation to Jamie Dimon lux.

its the short sighted management caused by stock options that drives banks to do stupid things like Wells Fargo opening fake accounts in their own customers names and then charging them extra fees for the bogus accounts.

These are not the faults of borrowers or government, they are the faults of overpaid management gouging everything in sight to gorge on their own greed.

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