Trump proposes 60 percent tariffs on China. Would that reduce the trade deficit? Where? How? 
Trump’s Tariff Claims on Truth Social
May 31, 2023: Remember, I terminated the worst trade deal in USA history, NAFTA, and replaced it with the best, USMCA. Also got China to pay our great FARMERS 28 Billion Dollars in damages!
June 19, 2024: The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed AFTER the Great Depression had already started. If you want to study Tariffs, and how powerful they are, study the administration of President William McKinley. America had so much money they didn’t know what to do with it!
August 19, 2024: I will revoke China’s Most Favored Nation Trade Status. I will pass the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act. If China or any other country makes us pay a 100 or 200 percent tariff, we will make them pay a reciprocal tariff of 100 or 200 percent right back. You hurt us, we hurt you! Eye for an Eye.
September 2, 2024: In my First Term, we achieved Major Successes to protect American Workers by negotiating Free and Fair Trade Deals, passing the USMCA (U.S./Mexico/Canada), and giving Businesses and their Workers the tools to thrive.
Trade Wars Are Good and Easy to Win
Greatest Deal Ever Made
Biggest Trade Deal Ever Made
US Balance of Trade Select Countries Goods Only 2024 Q2
Total Goods Balance of Trade
Trump’s Claims
- The Claims: “Remember, I terminated the worst trade deal in USA history, NAFTA, and replaced it with the best.”
- “In my First Term, we achieved Major Successes to protect American Workers by negotiating Free and Fair Trade Deals, passing the USMCA (U.S./Mexico/Canada), and giving Businesses and their Workers the tools to thrive.”
Trade Realities
- When Trump took office in 2017, the trade deficit with Mexico was $69.06 Billion. It’s now $95.93 billion for just 6 months.
- The Mexico+Taiwan+Vietnam (MTV) deficit went from $124.08 billion to $201.59 in the same time frame despite the fact that Biden kept Trump’s tariffs.
- At this pace, the 2024 deficit with Mexico would hit $191.86 billion for the full year. The MTV deficit would hit $403.18 billion, and the deficit with China would be $317.56 billion.
- When Trump took office in 2017, the total trade deficit was $792 billion. When he left office it was $901 billion. It’s now $660 billion for just 6 months, and Biden continued Trump’s trade policies.
Let’s Give Credit
If you wish to credit to Trump for reducing the full year trade deficit with China from $375.17 billion to ~$317.56 billion, then remember to credit Trump for increasing the MTV deficit from $124.08 billion to ~$403.18 billion.
My math suggests (-317.56 minus -375.17) + (-124.08 minus -403.18) = (57.61) + (-279.1) = -221.49 billion.
Again, Biden did not touch USMCA or China except to increase tariffs on China.
If increasing the MTV trade deficit by 221.49 billion and the total trade deficit by a new projected record is not winning big, then what is?
How Might China Respond?
If Trump increased tariffs on China to 60 percent across the board, how might China respond?
I have addressed that question previously. Nothing has changed.
China Shock II Is Coming, the EU Will Be Hit Hard, Then the US
On May 17, I commented China Shock II Is Coming, the EU Will Be Hit Hard, Then the US
Germany is feeling the pinch of China shock. But the US is on deck too. A global trade war looms.
German exporters are getting crushed by China. The EU as a whole cannot compete. The US is responding with massive tariffs.
China will retaliate against US tariffs. One way might be to stop exports of rare earth minerals used in cell phones, EV, computers, wind turbines, and military guidance systems.
Critical Materials Risk Assessment by the US Department of Energy
Please consider a Critical Materials Risk Assessment by the US Department of Energy
The US Department of Energy has placed some of the rare earth minerals we need for weapons systems, windmills, batteries, and aircraft on a critical materials list.
Nearly all of them are mined or refined in China. Yet Biden just blocked production in the US.
Huge Collision Course with China
We approaching eight straight years of the same trade policy started by Trump and continued by Biden.
I’m sure glad winning is easy and victory announced.
I recall the Democrat’s wanting even higher tariffs than what Trump and the Republicans implemented 6+ years ago. I also recall the media mis~informing the public…. Democrats do not agree with Trumps tarrifs (headlines), details? Most people believed democrats were anti tariff. Yet the opposite wasn’t being reported. Democrats wanted much much higher ones. Mish? Maybe a reminder of this could ultimately bring In different opinion ?
Thanks for fact checking the recent past, which is not fact checking the future. Prior to 1870 the US ran trade deficits while settling “free land” with border disputes and two civil wars counting 1776 and the British expulsion. From 1870 to 1960 the US ran trade surpluses with company towns, and before a central bank and reserve currency status and the modern welfare/warfare state. It’s been down hill since due to wars of convenience and the modern corporate welfare/warfare state and central bank’s reserve currency status. I don’t see it changing soon.
Tariffs increase the cost of stuff in the US. Hence adding to costs faced by people and businesses here. Hence reducing America’s competitiveness. That’s down there with 2+2, as far as basic comprehension of anything at all is concerned.
It is certainly possible that “tariffs” may reduce “imports”, however they are “calculated”/made-up, more than they; at least in the immediate term; reduce similarly arbitrarily denoted “exports.” Such that “the trade deficit” ends up “reduced” in the short run. After all, at the corner-case limit; of tariffs so high and universal that every American has choked from no longer being able to afford air blowing down across the border from Canada; the deficit; tah-dah; is no doubt “reduced.”
Now, of course, only card carrying #DumbAgers of the Trump kind, can be assumed to count that as some form of victory. Literates among us, do recognize that it is economic well being; “utility” which is the ultimate goal. Not whatever arbitrariness a bunch of perennial lightweights brand “the deficit.”
“Utility” is improved by improving efficiency. Which you DO NOT accomplish, by forcing American people to pay disproportionately more for the exact same thing, such that American workers can afford less, and American companies become less competitive.
Instead: If you want to reduce the deficit without negative side effects: You stop printing money. Then “the deficit” WILL be reduced. Guaranteed. No matter what braindead formula the lightweights arbitrarily a choose to apply: If NO new dollars are added out of nowhere; nether now nor in the future; whatever thelightweights choose to brand “the deficit” WILL drop to zero in fairly short order. While, at the same time, American competitiveness WILL improve dramatically. And American WORKERS, as opposed to American LEECHES, WILL be rendered better off.
It’s not particularly hard. Economics never were. It only appears complimecated, if one insists on inserting all manners of economically illiterate nonsense; for the sole purpose of “justifying” enriching deadweight leeches honestly better left to starve; into each and every decision and “program.”
High tariffs, low taxes, low energy prices, and regulatory repeal all stimulate the return of well paid manufacturing jobs to USA. There is a delay. Corporations need five to ten years to build factories and transfer equipment to USA. During the transition there will be high demand for construction labor, steel, concrete, and robot equipment. Most of the construction will occur in low tax right to work states.
this morning
personal income 0.2%
personal spending 0.2%
real personal consumption 0.1%
People are treading water in this economy. Not making gains against all the inflation already in pipeline. Not much enthusiasm based upon real personal consumption which is weak.
Trump is targeting working class jobs. Right thing to do to win election.
Tariffs a way to accomplish this goal.
Trade deficits don’t matter. A country can be doing very well and have massive trade deficits. Prove me wrong.
The proof is that we have stolen the value of people’s dollar savings (inflation) by money printing in order to keep sending money overseas. Maybe when the asset bubbles finally pop and the fake wealth vanishes, more people will realize we weren’t doing very well after all.
This is politician.
Their IQ is not that high. Just average or even lower I think.
They are not working for the country. They work for vote.
They will say whatever to get vote.
Never accept responsibility. Put blame on others.
Talk non-factual silly things and win the debate.
You’re qualified for the president.
Deep state will continue the rest.
Easy.
The Rise of Neoliberal Public Financehttps://lpeproject.org/blog/the-rise-of-neoliberal-finance/
Manufacturing in the US. That’s what Trump wants. I’m not a Trump fan but if anyone has any better ideas let’s hear it. We do not make things anymore. I don’t know anyone and I know a lot of people around the country. None of them make anything. All financial wizardry stuff including myself but I do own a side business that does make something of value in my defense.
The BRICS countries on the other hand do make things. What happens when they are done with our financial wizardry? It may take a while but eventually they will not need the US. Start making things, higher quality things with good quality control and R&D and nobody with a decent bag of coin would want their stuff. They would want the good stuff.
You’re not looking hard enough.
https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/media-gallery/21274993/manufacturing-road-trip-a-journey-across-the-us-slideshow?id=21274993&slide=1
There is a 5 part series that covers all thing things manufactured in 50 U.S. States.
point taken. So how do you feel on tariffs?
Some of the missiles have the equivalent of a monster box of silver, so let’s see how those are high-speed traded.
We have to have high tariffs if we wish to maintain personal taxes in the 50% range and corporate taxes at 21-18% depending on who the politician is. And not just on China but Mexico too. Only countries with similar tax rates are “fair”. Capital and jobs will naturally migrate from high tax regimes to low tax regimes, that’s basic economics.
(That said, I think tax rates in the US & most of the western world are insane! The trade imbalances are just one of the many unappreciated consequences of high tax rates.)
For every $100 billion of deficit…
we merely need to sell 1 million $100,000 Trump watches…
assuming he’d share with us.
Shopping
Network
Of
Trump
Ask SNOT what your country can sell for you.
This Sunday Kikcl might turn Austria to the right. If Austria Brexit Europe they will stop the flow of everything. Kickl is Haider’s disciple : build a wall, kick the immigrants out and a friendly relationship with Putin.
If the Fed cont to cut rates, while demand for highly skilled and semi skilled workers will rise, a good economy will lift all workers, but not retired boomers and gen X. Did u expect politicians to tell 70 million seniors that their gov goodies, unrealized promises and their bonds portfolio will be skruud.
Biden-Harris don’t you just feel the Joy?
Just wonderful when nobody is responsible for anything. After all that is what elections are for, popularity contest. Who is to worry about inanities such as paying Bills.
“China will retaliate against US tariffs. One way might be to stop exports of rare earth minerals”
Maybe this wouldn’t be such a bad thing. We’d actually have to start mining them domestically or find friendly sources other than China.
China opened many other markets in Africa, Asia and with Russia. If China retaliates they will lose their (+)280B trade surplus with the US. They lost 138B in 6 years, or 23B/Y, about a 1/3 of the total (138B/418B), with their best customer, who lifted half a billion Chinese from poverty and led them the wealth and prosperity.
Exactly and build nuclear plants for cheap power.
Reducing government spending is never discussed by the politicians as a solution to reducing the public debt.
Harris or Trump, we all lose. So why would anyone vote for either?
The hard decisions, in regard to the public debt are upon us.
Harris or Trump, we all lose.
Term limits, a border wall at the southern border, and a balanced budget amendment would be a good start.
But none of the above will ever happen.
Harris or Trump, we all lose. Especially our children and grandchildren.
Dear private sector: ‘Good luck with your layoffs, I really hope they go well for you.’
Blathering on about Tariffs good or bad is meaningless to people needing a Job that pays bills.
If a person goes to help wanted adds and reads what is on offer for the regular working stiff the wage scale is atrocious compared to cost of living. There is no way for people starting out to get ahead.
Fault Trump one hundred ways over, except he remains the only Public figure making effort and not just talk about how to improve the daily grind for the average person.
All the Bull shit on Earth spewed by every media figure trying to convince people that all is well if the voter sticks with the current Idiots in White House policy, bottom line people just aren’t feeling Joyful.
Trumps policies are just more socialist money printing debt mongering just like the Democrats. His policies like theirs will only continue the decline. Our country is acting like a stubborn person who, even after warnings from their doctor, family, stubbornly refuses to quit excess drinking, smoking, unhealthy eating, so then they have a heart attack that leaves them dumbfounded if they’re lucky to survive it.
The trade deficit : China and Vietnam are moving up to a higher low. Mexico should be next. Biden kept all Trump’s Tariffs and added more. If the next president lifts China to (-) 200B, while taking care of Mexico, king dollar will strengthen, increasing consumers buying power.
When’s Joe handing the baton to Kam? He says he could win but could barely explain to The View why he isn’t running…
More and more likely to happen as her polls drop …then she’ll have a better excuse for the basement campaign. Plus as WW-III continues to evolve, Pres Harris clarifies lines-of-responsibility with foreign governments.
And, … Exec Order out today on gun control.
Propaganda:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/26/fact-sheet-president-biden-and-vice-president-harris-announce-additional-actions-to-reduce-gun-violence-and-save-lives/
Analysis incl retroactive red-flag law for 18-20 year-olds:
https://www.gunowners.org/kamala-harris-issues-first-executive-order-on-gun-control-with-joe-biden/
Every time trump opens his mouth these days, he loses votes.
I’m pretty sure the increases in min wages over years have improved the Mex comparative advantage resulting in bigger deficits. I still prefer tariffs over anything income related. Remember that gaining a US job is so beneficial, it overcomes higher consumer costs.
“Remember that gaining a US job is so beneficial, it overcomes higher consumer costs.”
So you are for lower standards of living in order to have more US jobs? That’s the result of tariffs. When things cost more you can afford less which means lower standard of living.
How many people do you think would vote for a lower standard of living if it meant a few more jobs came back to America?
Americans voting Republican or Democrat have been voting for a lower standard of living for a long time. Maybe when the everything bubble finally pops and the fake wealth vanishes, more people will realize we weren’t doing so well after all and R and D socialist theft from savers policy was bad.
Well, we have the Good Ole Fashioned INVASION of China, as Rome did, and all other Dominant Nations (UK, SPAIN) and we will just TAKE the minerals and put them to work. This is how it works.
Don’t take me wrong: I am OPPOSED TO ALL WARS unless it is truly DEFENSIVE!
Ha, look how we lost in a poor country like Afghanistan, and we could supposedly win against a huge rich country? But all China would have to do is quit sending the ships of cheap goods we depend on and we’d be begging for mercy.
Trump is telling through his trade policies other countries: “If you shoot yourself in the foot, we are also going to shoot ourselves in the foot. A shot foot for shot foot!” The problem with stupid trade policies is that they are incredibly popular.
bs : during the globalization era tariffs make No sense, but Columbia U radical globalists were defeated by Trump. When we protect our national interest industries we have to raise tariffs. Raising tariffs on DE makes sense. DE will have to adjust. Punishing DE so other co will learn the lesson.
We need to have a discussion as to whether or not trade deficits harm the US. If they do harm the US, what is the best way to deal with it? Is the harm from the trade deficit worse than the harm from a tariff?
Best way to deal with it is to cut spending and debt. As long as we don’t do that, we continue to harm ourselves.
You can finally read the Trump campaign’s dossier on J.D. Vance. Boy does J.D. Vance hate Trump.https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/read-the-jd-vance-dossier
MSM is ignoring … they don’t wish to remind people of the close ties of Biden/Harris admin with Iran … $100B in unfrozen and embargoed funding … in exchange for some JD background information (as your blogger states, a mild compilation of open source material … JD sounds like a hard working, boring guy with confirmed Phi Beta Kappa from Ohio State).
We need a Waltz dossier showing his income and connections to Red China.
Interesting. Vance is on record saying that a dog is better than Trump.
Trump Should Be Running Away With the Election. Why Isn’t He?
Instead of working hard to convince voters Kamala Harris is unfit for the top job, the ex-president has wasted time on stupid stuff and bad stuff.
https://www.thefp.com/p/donald-trump-campaign-race-kamala-harris
Yeah, it is not looking good at all.
Traditionally, the Democrats were the party of STUPID IDEAS and TRADITIONALLY the REPUBLICANS WERE THE PARTY OF NO IDEAS.
Now, The Democrats AND Republicans are the parties of STUPID IDEAS.
GO UNI-PARTY!
Cats and dogs in Springfield, OH disagree.
Harris should be doing much better than she is but she is doing worse than Biden was was at a similar point in the 2020 election campaign (from Fox News).
trump makes noises with his mouth that he thinks will make people like him. It works on the dimmer ones. It’s no deeper than that.
YEP. KAMALA is PERFECTLY SUITED TO THE PRESIDENCY, TOO, as TRUMP IS.
THE STANDARDS ARE LOW ENOUGH ALREADY, so we are slipping down the RUNGS of IDIOCY.
CRETIN is the next RUNG down.
Oh look, here’s one now. Silly simp.
Even if tariffs don’t reduce the trade deficit, what about the argument that if you need tax revenue, better tariffs than income tax? To the extent it’s paid by everyone in higher prices, at least it’s one way to get some taxes out of illegals.
That is a very idiotic comment and I can tell from it that you are racist. Tariffs are pass to the consumers so please tell me when “illegals” don’t pay for goods? This is why MAGA must obliterated in this election so some real conservative with brains rebuild the republican party
1) Republican’s could have re-built from 2016-2020 (based on Disantis or a few other names). They now no longer exist, it is MAGA/MAHA (Nationalists) vs Totalitarianists.
2) Sentient’s point is the illegals buy goods thus they pay the tariffs. That said, the newer illegals are using tax dollars (welfare) rather than having earnings.
Can I have Temu still steal my data and ship direct to me? /s
MAGA won’t be obliterated even if Trump loses. MAGA is mostly the middle and lower middle working class that was forsaken by the Democrats when they shifted to representing the welfare / immigrant / LGBTQ / woke class.
The whole reason they supported Trump was because he gave them a voice again when neither party would. But make no mistake, their anger won’t disappear regardless of whether he wins or loses.
Tim, hope you are staying safe in hurricane alley.
But the MAGA people are in real trouble…
https://studyfinds.org/rural-americans-dying-younger/
Specifically, rural residents face shorter lifespans and more years lived in poor health. The research paints a concerning picture of the health challenges facing older adults in these communities.“Rural populations face a higher prevalence of chronic diseases, which has serious implications for healthy aging,” says lead author Jack Chapel, a postdoctoral scholar at the USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy & Economics, in a media release. “With an aging population and fewer physicians available, the burden on rural communities is set to grow, leading to significant challenges in providing care for those who will face more health issues in the future.”
Demographics data don’t lie, too many MAGA boomers dropping dead on the old end and now too many dying on the young end. MAGA just can’t catch a break.
All good here on the East coast. Just some rain and 30 mph winds.
I would not want to be living in the panhandle as those poor souls are gonna take a direct hit.
if you think MAGA = boomers, then you haven’t been paying attention.
America First nationalism is ascending, and globalism is receding… this is a macro-dynamic that will not change/shift per one or even five election cycles.
The globalist Left over-played their hand & now the house is clearing all chips off the table.
Nonsense. It’s just a random coincidence that China is flooding the system with money, the US, EU and other central banks are all lowering rates at the same time. You’re not paying attention to the right things, just listening to propaganda.
Follow the money, makes some profits, everything else is pointless.
Election is 38 days away….
Being called racist just means I said something true. It is a badge of honor.
Tariffs on China make sense only if the US and it’s allies have prepared for retaliation. Where is the rare earth mining and processing going on in the US or it’s allies? How about all the precursors imported from China to produce medicines? Has your government opened new factories and trained the staff to run them to produce 100% of the ingredients needed to produce every Americans prescription meds, vitamins, face masks, gloves etc or will it be a repeat of the Wuhan Flu fiasco where shortages developed of even toilet paper?
The US needs carefully applied tariffs to stop dumping, to protect critical industries and to maintain an industrial base capable of being converted to weapon production.
A tractor factory in the US has the workers and machinery that can become a tank factory but if it is in Mexico or worse yet China then those countries have that capability.
But for friendly allies there should be zero tariffs
Good points.
We won’t need as many Rare Earth’s once the green machine is exposed to market forces (it’ll mostly collapse except the Elite will have their plug-in hybrids still).
High tariffs on China will (is is already started albeit slowly) move manufacturing to Vietnam, Mexico, etc. They are fairly friendly (if not, they are easily persuaded ..aka bullied).
Shortages will occur during various crises; efficient supply chains simply cannot absorb step-functions in demand. That why prep’pers have their bunkers.
Prepping is smart. Where is the US storing a few years supply of rare earths? Or are the idiots running your country running a Just In Time inventory and draining your strategic oil reserves to give the idiot voters the illusion of lower petrol prices?
Do the brains in Washington not remember the oil embargo’s of the 1970s and the lines of cars trying to fill up? How about in WW2 where the shortages of copper meant pennies were made of steel?
I’m sure that the US still maintains the worlds largest merchant marine and shipbuilding capacity and outproduces China in steel making.
That is the problem with tariffs if a nation isn’t capable of dealing with reciprocation.
Time to update you. It’s not 1970. The US is the largest producer of oil in the world today. We refine more gasoline than we consume and export the excess because we don’t need it. No worries about gasoline shortages or lineups anytime soon.
Yes, we withdrew a lot of oil from the SPR when oil prices spiked over $100. That was two years ago. And in the last year we have been refilling the SPR (36 mb so far) at $70. A profitable move.
It’s not the 1940s anymore so tractor factories can no longer become tank factories. Modern military equipment is just way too complex to be manufactured anywhere.
The problem with critical industries is that EVERY industry thinks it’s a critical one and will lobby hard for that status BECAUSE it gets them protected status. Eventually they will all be labelled critical.
Who classifies as a friendly ally? Even countries you would think are friendly allies (Europe, Canada etc) have tariffs on US goods and launch plenty of complaints against the US with the WTO. So good luck with the idea of no tariffs on friendly allies when they have some against US goods.
“Who classifies as a friendly ally? Even countries you would think are friendly allies (Europe, Canada etc) have tariffs on US goods and launch plenty of complaints against the US with the WTO. So good luck with the idea of no tariffs on friendly allies when they have some against US goods.“
The reason other countries have plenty of complaints with the US at the WTO is because of US tariffs. Not the other way around.
I have lost count, but Canada has won many cases at the WTO against the US over softwood lumber tariffs. But the US keeps re-applying them anyway.