Extreme gender wokeness could easily cost Democrats the state of New Hampshire. 
Trump Ahead in Latest NH Poll
The NH Journal reports POLL SHOCKER: Trump Leads Harris in New Hampshire
Amid signs that former President Donald Trump is slowly gaining momentum in the race for the White House, a new New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll released Sunday night finds he’s leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the Granite State.
Trump’s slim 50.2 to 49.8 percent lead is insignificant, well within the margin of error.
“There’s a reason Kamala Harris has been spending money in New Hampshire. She’s on defense and knows President Trump is on the path to victory,” said Trump national campaign spokesperson – and Atkinson, N.H., native – Karoline Leavitt.
“To my fellow Granite Staters who want to keep our beautiful state safe, business-friendly, and free — get out and vote for President Trump. Kamala Harris is a radical liberal who would destroy New Hampshire and America forever.”
In the race for governor, Ayotte continues to hold a modest but steady lead. In the NHJournal poll, she’s leading Democrat Joyce Craig 52 to 48 percent.
On the generic ballot questions, Granite Staters were split. While they preferred Republicans control Congress 52 to 48 percent), a slim majority (50.6 to 49.4 percent) would prefer to see Democrats control the state legislature in Concord.
Respondents were also asked about some of the fundamental issues in the governor’s race. For example, Ayotte often says she intends to continue “the Sununu way” if elected governor, and she’s been endorsed by popular GOP Gov. Chris Sununu. However, when asked if they would prefer to “stay on the Sununu course” or wanted “New Hampshire to make a change,” 55 percent chose change, as opposed to 45 percent who said “stay the course.”
So, how is Ayotte holding a four-point lead over Craig? Taxes vs. abortion.
Craig and the Democratic Party have pounded Ayotte nonstop on the abortion issue, claiming (falsely) that she supports a ban on abortion in New Hampshire. Asked how concerned they are that Ayotte would ban abortion in the Granite State, just 27 percent were “very concerned,” while 31 percent were not concerned at all.
Ayotte has repeatedly said throughout the campaign she supports the state’s current abortion law and would veto any bill to restrict abortion further. She’s made Craig’s record on taxes the top issue; in particular, Craig’s proposal to bring back the income tax on interest and deductions, a tax Sununu and the GOP-controlled legislature have eliminated.
The Issue That May Decide the Race
In New Hampshire, a new law requiring athletes to play on the team that matches their sex at birth is being challenged in federal court. Meanwhile, two parents were slapped with no trespass orders by the Bow school district after wearing pink armbands with “XX” written on them to express their support for girls-only sports.
Every Democrat in the New Hampshire House and Senate opposed the new law protecting girls sports, and Craig is an opponent as well. Asked if they would be more or less likely to support a legislator who voted to allow biological males to compete in girls sports, 15 percent said “more likely,” while 54 percent said “less likely.” Another 31 percent said it would make no difference.
“These New Hampshire poll numbers are mirroring the national trend,” said Sununu. “Harris reinforced her supporters’ worst fears when she confirmed she wouldn’t provide any change from the current administration. Trump now controls the narrative as the only alternative to America’s current situation.
“And that’s a powerful message for voters in the final week of the campaign.”
About the Pollster
Praecones Analytica has been rated by 538 and Nate Silver for over six years, and currently has a Silver Bulletin pollster rating of B/C and a predictive plus/minus rating of +0.42 which is in the top third of rated firms. Their mean-reverted bias, as measured by the Silver Bulletin, is small, at R +0.2, substantially smaller than many nationally-prominent pollsters.
Not an Outlier
I normally dismiss outliers, but close inspection reveals this is not an outlier.
It’s not that different from Emmerson College.
“Harris’ margin among women is similar to that of Biden in 2020 — however, male voters have shifted about two points toward Trump,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In addition, Harris is underperforming Biden’s 2020 support among independent voters, who break for Harris by 13 points, but broke for Biden by about double that amount.”
In the gubernatorial election to replace Governor Chris Sununu, 46% support former Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, while 43% support Former Mayor of Manchester Democrat Joyce Craig. Seven percent are undecided.
Half of voters have a favorable view of Ayotte, while 48% have an unfavorable view of her. Two percent have never heard of Ayotte. Forty-six percent have a favorable view of Craig, while 48% have an unfavorable view of Craig. Six percent have never heard of the former mayor.
The top issue for New Hampshire voters is the economy at 34%, followed by housing affordability at 26%, threats to democracy at 10%, healthcare at 8%, and immigration at 6%.
President Biden holds a 39% job approval rating in New Hampshire, while 53% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. Governor Chris Sununu holds a 48% job approval rating, and 28% disapproval.
If you want to consider outliers, note that Dartmouth College has Harris with a 20.8 percentage point lead. Dartmouth also has Craig +6 over Ayotte. Four other polls have Ayotte in the lead.
Abortion favors Harris, but the economy and absurd wokeness over biological men competing in female sport favors Trump.
Recall that Glenn Youngkin, pulled off a shocking upset in Virginia in the last gubernatorial election over woke school issues.
It’s also possible Ayotte has modest coattails for Trump. In fact, that’s my bet. Enough to matter? I don’t know.
Nate Silver has the odds at 76.3 to 23.7 Harris over Trump. I would take those odds if I could get them.
An Election Bet Proposal
I repeat my proposal: I Challenge Nate Silver to an Election Bet, Winnings Go to Charity
New Hampshire’s four electoral college votes could conceivably decide the election 272-262.
With NH, Trump could afford to lose the entire Blue Wall (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) if he won all the rest of the swing states.
Wouldn’t that be a hoot.
Mish, were you ever in Hanover, New Hampshire? Dartmouth = Drunkmouth.
Ha!
Why he might win – inflation is kicking most people’s cha cha’s and Headboard sounds like she crammed for a test last night.
If a little 2.3% inflation is a problem for you, then you need to create a better income stream!
Outsourcing and mass immigration make that difficult for many workers
People having difficulty should apply to UNRWA for assistance then. After all, the Gaza Palestinians as self-styled refugees, have been getting hundreds of trucks of free aid daily for 76 years now. They’ve built a whole society and economy on this avalanche of free stuff!
If you believe there is 2.3% inflation you need a better psychiatrist.
I don’t believe it but you can’t fight “city hall” as the old saying goes. People have been fighting with the BLS to change the measurement of inflation for decades w/o success.
Perhaps they could be sued in the Supreme Court to measure better?
Polls said Hillary was gonna win too.
Forget NH, VA might be in play which just goes to show you how bad the momentum is for Harris.
I like to listen to videos while cycling, usually at 1½ × speed (the video).
I listened to Trump’s Joe Rogan interview yesterday, the whole thing.
America is in deep doodoo. Although Trump is a 10× better choice than Harris, he is still such a blowhard, full of bar talk clichés, so completely wrapped up in confabulated feats which he repeats continuously … it is impossible to conceive of him making policy on the basis of facts & reasoning of any kind or even distinguishing between policy results or personal predilections and objective trends or events.
We have 4 years of his policy decisions as President. So your statement is fallacious
Trump’s got the following N states:
ND
NE
Now we have the following in play:
NC
NH
NV
The following don’t come into play:
NJ
But… what about this true blue one?
NM
Reported that Harris pulled advertising funds out of NC effectively conceded that state.
Pumping into Virginia so Virginia is in play as her campaign is concerned about losing that most close to DC state.
NM has large Latino vote and they also have to pay bills. That segment is turning towards Trump. Economics and Family values are Big issues in Latino community.
Not so fast – https://www.mediaite.com/politics/harris-campaign-pulls-millions-in-ad-spending-in-north-carolina-amid-surge-of-republican-early-voters/amp/
After 4 more years of a potential Comrade Harris term, the moderate liberals in NH will live to regret not electing Trump as 47. Pinch your nose, give him 4 more years to start to right the ship before he sails off into the sunset.
At this point, if Harris somehow wins, there’s going to be an enormous reaction from the right, and it’s hard to say what the totality of that looks like.
The entire election shouldn’t even be close.
Legit!
Polls, polls, polls. It’s all we have but they are always wrong. In fact, almost everything that the media and political establishment pay attention to—such as campaigns, candidate quality, debates, and ideological positions—is irrelevant to the outcome. An election is a referendum on the incumbent party’s track record. As much as FOX, Newsmax and the Republicans are telling the public, “who are you going to believe? Me or your eyes?” regarding the economy, GDP is expanding, unemployment is low, job creation is strong and inflation has been tamed. Women will be teaching Trump a lesson. I don’t see this election being close.
22% inflation in 3.5 years and its been tamed. Are you stupid?
Pay attention Pea Brain. The current rate is 2.4%. Biden inherited inflation. The felon flooded the economy with money during the pandemic. The pandemic caused disruptions to supply chains, which led to price increases. The pandemic caused a shift in demand from services to goods, which led to price increases. The money supply grew too large relative to the size of the economy. It hit 9% in 2022 and Biden got it down to 2.4%. Every economist worth his degree has said that inflation will rise again if the sexual predator is elected and he keeps the promise of his policies.
Don’t call others pea brain. Biden pushed the last stimulus that was totally not required. HIs Border Czar let in over 10.5 million recorded illegals (actual?) and blew billions on them but has no money for US citizens hit by hurricanes, apart from sending 157 million to Lebanon to safeguard their borders (!). Working hard for America!
Turn off FOX already. https://www.npr.org/2024/10/07/nx-s1-5144159/fema-funding-migrants-disaster-relief-fund
99% of voters don’t know the current inflation rate is only 2.4%, but 100% of voters know everything is way more expensive than it was 4 years ago, and no one they know can afford housing. The blame falls on Biden for not doing shit about it, and of course he also poured gas on the fire with excess stimulus in 2021-22 that was unnecessary.
Toss in the immigration fiasco and a gazillion social issues, and then realize that 70-80% of the electorate is now saying WTF? every time they find out how much they’ve been lied to.
So yeah, this election absolutely IS a referendum on the past 4 years. One in which most do Not want 4 more.
100% of voters know if they have a job. 100% of voters know if their neighbors have a job. My contention is that is much more important to voters than the current price of goods. And remember, every economist worth his degree has said that inflation will rise again if the sexual predator is elected and he keeps the promise of his policies.
TDS can be treated with a frontal lobotomy.
…or removing the cancerous Trump tumor
The last thing you should ever do is let women know that you think you have them figured out.
Surest way to make them flip the script just to prove you wrong.
Mish, I have noticed that a post I put here within the past hour, about the Voting System, has disappeared. WTF?
Well, it could be that SUPER-PRO Special K voters might switch (K is a steaming pile of shit with Legs) versus Trump who is a a steaming pile of shit with whiskers?
More than likely it is FEAR and not ideas. PURE EMOTIONS. You would have to be an idiot (no brains) to not see how badly things are going in the USA.
SIX COUPLES (close friends, versus 5 a week ago) are LEAVING AMERICA for good. SIX OF OUR CLOSEST FRIENDS. LEAVING!
I am talking MONIED people. They have hired lawyers, moved assets and are leaving. These six have KIDS and GRAND KIDS here. One of those couple has a Private Jet to whisk the kids off to Portugal twice a year!
The others will fly private using services. Expensive!
But without exception, they see something that is creeping up on me: WILL our Government go MORE DEEPLY TYRANNICAL?
THEY are all thinking “YES” and I am on the fence. We already have Money overseas….in R.E. (won’t say where)…
“Are Thinking” and that’s the rub… Last time Trump Won, I do believe (may be off by 1) Everybody that said they were leaving stayed. Hmm funny how that happens…
I myself “Highly Prefer” to Stay in My Country, and assist in helping to get it back on track. Trump did an absolutely Amazing Job last time in office, and in fact one of the best in decades for Our Country.
I must say however, that I don’t think much of people that give up, throw in the towel, and accept defeat. Especially when it’s for one of the “Most Important” things to “Your Life” and “Your Families Lives”
I wish you all well, and don’t give up so easily on the next Country “You Pick” to call Home, when things go a bit astray, and maybe you won’t have to leave.
Oh, and if it gets fixed, no thanks to you, your still welcome back, and no grudge for your decision making…
Remember when Barbra Streisand threatened to move to Canada if Bush 43 was elected president? Well he was in 2000 but she did not leave California.
I suspect that things are going a lot worse in Germany these days, with Volkswagen planning on shutting down 3 plants and laying off thousands of workers, a first in its history. VW is the largest industrial employer in Germany and probably in all of Europe, with the possible exception of Russia. As Germany goes, so will go the rest of Europe. Maybe you should plan on moving abroad if Kamela gets elected. There is no telling how much damage the US economy will experience if she gets elected.
Y’all love Pooty Poot, but you never talk about moving to Russia. Strange, that.
I don’t love Pooty Poot and I am not moving to Russia. But I think the neocons made a big mistake stirring up the Ukrainians starting with the Maidan Revolution in 2014. Millions of Ukrainians have fled the country, lots of dead and wounded soldiers and the US is spending billions of $ every year that it does not have. Don’t be surprised if we get more bouts of inflation in the next few years.
If you don’t want WW3, simply want to acknowledge/respect realpolitik in the vicinity of Russia, understand Russia’s nuclear arsenal can destroy the planet in an afternoon, and don’t think the US has a right to rule over Eurasia, apparently to these NPCs you are a putin stooge.
Where ever they are going, they are likely to find it’s not going to be much different than here.
Maybe it will seem that way at first, but eventually they’ll figure out it’s not much different. The whole world is interconnected now and if things to go shit here, they will be going to shit there too.
You are part of the monied class. That explains why you are so out of touch
NH doesn’t matter. If Kamala wins, it’s already part of her winning recipe. If Trump wins, he would be getting 320+ EVs, so let’s move on.
MnkyPoX told me to buy djt a month ago if I thought Trump would win. Triple your money. Good call POX! Hope you stayed short
Karoline Leavitt is a rising superstar. If you don’t know who she is you will when she is Trump’s press secretary.
Can we stop pretending that Kamala actually has a chance of winning this election. Replacing the lowest job approval rated president with the lowest job approved vice president is not a winning strategy.
Don’t underestimate the number of hysterical women and eunuchs.
But she’s not Trump. And that’s ALL the media cares about.
That’s all that matters.
Puzzles the blazes out of me how loser & lightweight leftist can even rate 1%-she’s shown her incompetence in so many ways over the years. WTH is wrong w/ the lemmings? Trump. despite all the evil crap Dems piled on him, did uber well for our nation [econ, border, foreign relations, military, Blacks, VA, etc.] We live in SORRY times given the nature of Marxist bottom feeders out to destroy our nation.
Not sure why this is a shocker? NH is a conservative State as a rule, and has been for many decades, but since the early 2000’s (Jean Shaheen) they have had a few Democrats in the mix. It seems to head back to Conservative pretty quickly afterwards though. My Wife actually worked in Shaheen’s office for a bit (odd story).
I don’t generally bet, but if I did, I would place a very large wager on Trump easily winning NH This Year!!! In the end, it won’t be close. They are talking a good game (aka Harris style), but with no meat on the bone, and little in the way of actual derails, without actually knowing what they are voting for with Harris, in the end they will pass on Her, and select the clear choice this election in Trump!! “Most States Will”
White males without college education in this country have gone mad over Trump. I am still hopeful the women will save us from MAGA calamity on November 5.
Those white males grown your food, keep the power on and keep our entire country running. And they’re not stupid. If an ice storm pulls down the power lines, if your furnace goes out or your sewer backs up, feel free to call a poet or a gender studies professor.
You mean those white males that the Democratic party platform has dragged through the mud and outright rejected? We’re in socio-cultural decline in this country because of college educated women and their stupid ideas along with the weak mem that follow them.
The Democrats use white males, in particular white christian males, as scapegoats for every other group’s problems. Since they engage in group and identity politics, applying their methodology implies they are ingrates, since these very same people have created the vast majority of the modern world’s inventions and without whom we would still be living in stone age conditions. So where is the gratitude for these white males now that we are delving into group identities
“Few in the media seemed eager to attend a ceremony last week in Washington, D.C., where the prestigious American Academy of Sciences and Letters was awarding its top intellectual freedom award.
The problem may have been the recipient: Stanford Professor Dr. Jay Bhattacharya.
Bhattacharya has spent years being vilified by the media over his dissenting views on the pandemic. As one of the signatories of the 2020 Great Barrington Declaration, he was canceled, censored, and even received death threats.
That open letter called on government officials and public health authorities to rethink the mandatory lockdowns and other extreme measures in light of past pandemics.
All the signatories became targets of an orthodoxy enforced by an alliance of political, corporate, media, and academic groups. Most were blocked on social media despite being accomplished scientists with expertise in this area.
It did not matter that positions once denounced as “conspiracy theories” have been recognized or embraced by many.”
https://nypost.com/2024/10/28/opinion/scientist-who-battled-for-covid-common-sense-over-media-and-government-censors-wins-top-award/
its all garbage
Quick! Haul some Haitians up to NH and FAST!!!
Don’t believe the polls. Trump is going to lose, and I can’t wait.
Sounds like you’re a Marxist who welcomes our destruction…you overlook how Harris-Biden have plundered USA-we lost 10% of our Middle Class; 20% of the value of our dollar, plus 9-11 million welfare grabbing/unvetted illegals…great ways to destroy a nation which is what the left desires.
Nah. It just sounds like he doesn’t want a felon/sexual predator/ insurrectionist/insurance fraudster/old man/clown/fascist as our president. That’s understandable,
Well said.
I continue to hold my position stated weeks ago that Trump is going to get swamped by Harris! All of you Trump losers better keep wash clothes by your side so you can wipe the egg residue off your faces.
The History Channel Updates WWII Programming For The Trump Era
The Daily Show
Oct 26, 2024
Trump’s Hitler comments are forcing The History Channel to make some big changes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sb5-NmUVVnw
You may be right after 2 months of counting.
Doesn’t matter. Whatever it takes to get an accurate count.
“Accurate”. lol
Dems have a LONG history of cheating [Tammany Halls, Mayor Daley, the Kingfish in LA, Detroit, etc] so I won’t be surprised if they screw America again…we’re already losers under this incompetence…10 million welfare sucking illegals. 10% loss of Middle Class, 20% loss of the value of our dollar, etc.
I agree. Saying this doesn’t require you to think Dems are more corrupt (although I think they are). It’s just an artifact of the fact that they control all of the big cities. Republicans don’t have the opportunity to stuff the ballot box. Their voters are spread over wider distances. There is no republican analog to a Minneapolis or Philly or Detroit that is overwhelmingly democrat – with precincts that are 95+% democrat. The “reddest” areas are – at most – 65-35 Republican.
So sounds like you’re stating that IF Republicans had a similarly easy way to potentially cheat, then they would also? [lol]
If Trump can flip a “leans blue” state, then his chances of taking other “leans blue” have gone up.
That’s how you “Beat The Cheat”. Dems don’t have the “resources” to swamp the ballot box in NH or the other leaning states.
“poll shocker”
LULZ.
DJT was winning NH in 2021… and 2022… and ’23… and ’24.
nothing has changed. DJT has been leading/winning all along.
pollsters & media need the perception of a horserace… so they can get paid. and thus we get polls & coverage that support the desired perception.
media is a joke & polls are political masturbation.
Funny how they always move right as the election nears.
Also, your Pollster accuracy table aligns with the discrepancies in pollster results in RCP. Fascinating.
Interesting, on RCP the latest poll they have for NH is Emerson. Your pollster accurate table has a statistical bias of 3% democrat. Thier latest NH poll had Harris ahead by 3%. NH is definitely in play.
Which is why Polls are useless for the most part. In reality every single State “Is In Play” until the election is over and the Votes have been counted.
One day, week, month, and things change sometimes by a tad, and other times by a bunch, but it doesn’t mean anything as a result of such happenings. It’s all cyclical to the day, time, and place.
Trump would have been a “Clear Leader” in NYC, and State, if the person not following the news, saw that unbelievably rip roaring Trump Rally at MSG!!! Wow!! “It’s Over” they would say. When reality says Trump will lose NY more than overwhelmingly likely, but you truly Never Know… Until.
Only shock is the 48 percent who want more of the last 4 years
Because the next 4 years are looking pretty rosey?
Bell curve.
You mean, the fundamental incompatibility of bell curve and dembocracy?
that is what happens when you live a life of relative abundance and affluence as has existed in the West since the end of WW2. When people are insulated from the real struggles and problems of life they invent things to get into a tizzy about. That’s why the vast majority of progressive activists are young whites, especially women.
That and the fact that the Dems, Libs, MSM etc. all go for the “Emotional Vote” Woman are much more prone to vote with Emotions, which is why Trump struggles at times with the Woman Vote. The Dems have been piling on this tactic for quite sometime now. They get traction, but then lose it, and they have been doing so most of the election so far imo.
As time goes on, many Woman are figuring this out, and the tug on their heartstrings is loosening. Many are realizing they have been, and continue to get played! You can only be fooled for so long, when the Truth is right beside it all the time, staring you in the face.
This will change dramatically when they are behind closed doors, and without that garbage in their faces. Think about there kids, safety and the likes, which are equally “Massive Woman Issues” and they will simmer to the top when left alone to think about it…
Came to the same conclusion. As society became more affluent, and life more easy, meaningless dumb subjects became mainstream. This is where women shine regardless of intelligence.
You have no idea what “many Woman” think.
Hmm… How Many Woman = Many? What exactly are they Thinking? An Idea about WHAT topic Specifically?
There’s a reason it’s called hysteria.