Truck sales plunge amidst tariff concerns and uncertainty.
Class 8 Truck Orders Hit 15-Year Low
CJC reports Class 8 Truck Orders Hit 15-Year Low
FTR Transportation Intelligence marked declines of 25% month-over-month and 36% year-over-year, with 8,900 units booked last month.
While June typically sees a modest month-over-month uptick, FTR noted that ongoing tariff volatility with economic and freight market uncertainty prompted fleets to hold off on new orders.
FTR reported that June’s net orders total fell well below the 10-year average of 19,213 units for June and were the lowest June performance since 2009.
Both the on-highway and vocational sectors saw reduced demand, with the on-highway segment driving most of the decline, FTR said. For the 2025 order season so far (September 2024 through June 2025), net orders are down 15%, totaling 255,265 units over the past 12 months.
FTR noted that Class 8 net orders to date have dropped 32% year-over-year. Recent tariff hikes – particularly the increase from 25% to 50% on steel, aluminum, and fabricated components as of June 4 – significantly raised manufacturing costs just as demand has deteriorated.
“Market uncertainty is further heightened by the potential implementation of Section 232 tariffs on Class 8 trucks and their components along with anticipated revisions to EPA 2027 NOx emissions standards,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, at FTR.
ACT Research indicated that broader commercial vehicle demand also declined, with preliminary net orders for classes 5-8 in June totaling 21,300 units, down 39% year-over-year. ACT’s estimate for Class 8 orders totaled 9,400 units, down 36% year-over-year.
Final June Class 8 Orders Fall 35%
Fleet Equipment reports Final June Class 8 truck orders fell 35% year-over-year to 9,463 units.
Final Class 8 net truck orders for North America reached 9,463 units in June, according to ACT Research’s State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report. That figure marks a 35% year-over-year decline.
ACT Research analyst Carter Vieth pointed to a mix of economic and policy-related headwinds. “Weak fundamentals, current regressive trade policy, and uncertainty over the ever-changing carousel of new tariff rates and deadlines impede decision-making,” Vieth said. He added that for-hire carriers are feeling the brunt of the slowdown, entering the 13th consecutive quarter of freight recession.
With many fleets under financial strain and tariffs raising both equipment costs and reducing goods demand, ACT Research reported that new truck investment continues to falter. Tractor orders were down 42% year-over-year. Vocational truck orders fell 23%, a drop ACT attributes to rising equipment prices, regulatory uncertainty, and reduced activity in housing and private construction markets.
Class 5-7 Sales
The medium-duty segment saw similar challenges. Vieth noted that total Class 5 through 7 orders declined 40% year-over-year, falling to 12,387 units. According to ACT Research, this segment has seen a steady slowdown over the past six months, driven by high inventory levels and a cooling economic outlook.
Fed Minutes Reveal Tepid GDP
Please note Fed Minutes Reveal Tepid GDP, Inflation Risks, and a Debate Over Rate Cuts
- Real GDP expanded at a tepid pace in the first half of the year. The unemployment rate continued to be low, and consumer price inflation remained somewhat elevated.
- Disinflation appeared to have stalled, with tariffs putting upward pressure on goods price inflation.
- With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants generally expected inflation to increase in the near term. Participants judged that considerable uncertainty remained about the timing, magnitude, and persistence of the effects of this year’s increase in tariffs. In terms of timing, many participants noted that it could take some time for the full effects of higher tariffs to be felt in consumer goods and services prices.
Trucks are another sign a slowdown is underway.
We run medium duty stake beds for our deliveries. They have gone up $40K in price over the last 5 years. To consider adding on a truck, I really have to scrutinize how much additional profit dollars that truck can bring in. Additionally I always like to have backup truck here but it is becoming unreasonable to have an semi idle truck on the books. Also, our vehicle insurance has double in the last 2 years.We will be running our trucks as long as we can mileage wise before having to replace.
Good news is 100% bonus depreciation in year of purchase… pretty good.
Powell bs. Wix/Base44 will cut programmers, coders, accountants, mag7, edu and bloggers employments. SF and Seattle are doomed. Wix ==> increased Vix. A systemic change.
Lee Zeldin’s efforts to roll back the stupid epa rules from over a decade ago are probably a better reason to delay purchasing a new diesel driver piece of equipment. Operators are waiting to see if the manufacturers offer something without all the non-functioning pollution equipment that renders current offerings of class 4-8 “out of service “.
The DEF and Particulate Filters (same junk on pickups) will shut the truck down WHEN it malfunctions. It’s not will it malfunction? It’s when and where will a a truck that used to go over 1mm miles, now needs a tow and thousands $ in work, with only 30-50k on the clock.
Will we get a post on this soon: Joint Statement on a United States-European Union framework on an agreement on reciprocal, fair and balanced trade – European Commission
EU won’t be buying too much processed garbage junk food, from USA regardless of this. like you i have an EU passport. vote there and in 2 usa states.
Instead of a blanket interdiction like it was before the agreement, now US farmers can export to Europe food along as it is is grown or produced according to EU regulations. That makes a big difference.
I do not have a EU passport. What gave you that idea? And if you vote in two states that is a felony.
us farmers are fucked thanks to PEDOTUS PEDERAST tariffs on needed tools and chemicals to grow………call john bolton if you want a felon.
Apparently if you vote in two states then I have a felon here in you.
BWAAAAAAHHHHHHHH. you are a rat. and a naive fool, too. bad cops are cops that cannot be bought and paid for. thanks for the entertainment old sport.
Just like the Cheeto Pedo.
It is true that US farmers are Fuc*ed. Not only Europe is boycotting our food products, China is rejecting our grain shipments as well.
Corn is down roughly 25% since planting and many farmers will operate at a loss.
A repeat of Trumps last term. He had to subsidize over $20 billion to buy their votes… This time I think they will get burned and not be able to pay their loans. Big corporations are waiting in the wings to scoop up the cropland. Trump screws his supporters the worst! 😉
Regarding voting in three jurisdictions? That is improper and IMO criminal.
Do you vote in two states like your friend bmcc too?
My daughter just quit her job. She was the top salesperson at a luxury auto dealer at one of the largest auto malls in the US, located in SoCal. A few months ago sales started to drop after the initial surge to beat the tariff threats. Starting in June sales started to slide and recently went down to practically nothing. The final straw that broke the camel’s back was this past Sunday. Not a single person walked onto the lot. At this point she was working for minimum wage. Sad, but McDonald’s pays more in CA.
thanks for info. i wish your daughter the best. selling autos and airplanes, is like selling bonds or stocks. the latter more profitable for talented sales folks.
Did she quit without another job lined up?
So what’s with the spikes in the Class 8 graph? I imagine they are something to do with Trump, Covid, Biden, post Covid, etc? There’s a lot of movement there that I don’t understand. In the Class 5-7 graph I see a Covid/post Covid dive/spike. But just before the nose dive it appears it was coming down anyway. Are there some kind of cycles going on in that market?
Before covid the first round of tariffs were kicking in and business was slowing.
Trump is doing his best at being unpredictable; turning businesses into “deer in the headlights”; afraid to make investment decisions. So spending on class 8 trucks has dropped as an example of his tariff uncertainty. And those trucks that do get built will be more expensive because of tariffs on imported components that go into the trucks.
He just added 407 new items to his list of tariffs on items containing foreign steel and aluminum. Good luck to US manufacturers that need to import these items.
His government is now launching a class 232 investigation into wind turbines. He hates wind energy, and he is doing his best to shut it down. His government will no longer provide permits for renewable energy installations on public lands.
By the way, there are over 600,000 Americans employed in the wind and solar industries vs 40,000 in “clean, beautiful coal”.
Not to mention that in 2024, the US added a total of 38 GW of new power generation vs 60 GW of new demand. 33 GW from renewables and 5 GW from natural gas.
The reason your electric bill is rising video if you haven’t seen it already.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJ2tqs_vksc
I posted this a few articles ago. I will copy and paste it here:
Trump wants more steel and aluminum production here. And he might get it in ten years. But in the meantime, he is making domestic manufacturing less and less competitive by putting tariffs on necessary imports.
To increase domestic aluminum production, which Trump wants, (we import 50% of our aluminum) we need:
1. A lot of expensive new smelters built over the next decade
2. To import a lot more bauxite raw material (because the US does not have much at all)
3. To build a lot of new electricity generation capacity because a single aluminum smelter takes as much power as 6 AI data centers.
4. To sell that electricity at 1/10 the normal price to the aluminum smelters in 30 year contracts to make them competitive.
US electricity demand is growing quickly thanks to AI data centers, Crypto, and the increasing electrification of our economy. Never mind adding aluminum. In 2024, 60GW of load growth happened (demand) while generation capacity grew by just 38 GW. Data centers are already sucking up more power than we add each year. The result is higher electricity prices for consumers.
Trump blames higher electricity prices on renewables, because he hates renewables and he needs something to blame for high electricity prices.
However, high prices are a result of demand additions (60 GW) exceeding supply additions (38 GW).Without renewables, electricity would be a LOT more expensive.
Trump’s solution is to try to stop renewables by stopping the permitting of new renewable projects. It they don’t get permits, then they can’t be built.
Now let’s look at where the 38 GW of new electricity supply came from in 2024.
30 GW solar
3 GW wind
5 GW natural gas
Take away solar and wind and we are left with just 5GW of new capacity against 60GW of new demand.
I look forward to seeing what will happen to electricity prices over Trump’s four years if he manages to cripple wind and solar. Should be good for my natural gas stocks.
Thanks for that data on electricity production and demand. Solar and wind still have the problem of inconsistency, with the need for reliable base load production. So, a GW is not a GW. That’s not to say we shouldn’t increase solar and wind. Your gas stocks should do well. We need more nuclear power. Maybe mini-nukes. Liquid salt thorium reactors.
Solar is fairly consistent, sun still comes up every morning. Every source of electricity has its baggage. We need a nationwide incentive/tax credit to build out Solar. Should be on every rooftop.
Yep. But storage is increasing dramatically, which helps with intermittence.
I have no expectation that SMRs or Thorium reactors will be competitive with renewables any time soon.
For the next decade, the vast majority of new US electricity generation will come from natural gas, solar and wind.
great take, and i totally appreciate your investing angle here. hat tip to you. which nat gas stocks do you like best papa dave? thanks in advance.
My favorites are mostly Canadian. Tourmaline, Arc, Nuvista, Peyto. In the US: Diamondback. I have a core position in them all, but I also day trade them as well.
Papa, you are a great resource for our Group and For Mish. You and Mish should team up once a week and cover a MARKET sector (relating to INVESTING ONLY) for we mere pupils.
Thanks. Just trying to learn from Mish and some of the intelligent commenters here.
And Trump is halting all new visa for CDLs, what could go wrong? Got inflation?
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/breaking-trump-administration-immediately-pausing-all-new-commercial-truck-driver-work-visas
“It’s Trump turtles all the way down and inflation all the way up!”
When you have an illegal alien driving around with a fake CA driver’s license in an 18-wheeler and making illegal U-turns that kill American’s, that’s probably a good sign that change is needed.
Again, the cold hard truth is that these 7.2M unemployed Americans had better have their come to Jesus moment about future employment & career paths soon.
Again, why is it that 99% of what you write always doom & gloom?
Get some positive perspective, man.
What exactly is gloom and doom about my post? I merely called out inflation will likely go up if there is a shortage of truck drivers and prices spike. That’s it.
Inflation is actually good for asset prices and as an asset holder, I’m elated.
You seem to rarely have positive minded posts. Sorry if I’m not paying attention. But for sure, you’re 101% against anything Trump.
No worries. They’re your opinions.
I’m not here to be positive or negative, I am here to take Mish’s analysis and synthesize it and then profit from it. As soon as I read this post, the first thing I did was check freightwaves to see what’s up then I saw the news article on truckers and Trump.
If trucking will be down due to lack of trucks or drivers then logically there will be profit to be made. The big winners will be alternative modes of transportation like railroads and logistics firms. Warehousing may also score big.
So guess what I’ve been doing since Mish posted this article?
I have been researching warehousing REITS, railroad and logistics firms to see if there is anything out there in value territory to take positions and profit over the next 12 to 18 months. Of course Trump can TACO any moment so it’s best to temper trades around net credit collars or other pragmatic ways.
I don’t give a rats a$$ about trump or kamala or your feelings, I care about profits.
But if you really want to blow your mind, watch Trump say the economy does better under democrats.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRndMiVIB-w
Now what have you been doing over the last 24 hours other than worry over your failed messiah?
A lot of folks have a problem with child rape, and that biases them.
I’m one of them. I don’t’ care if you invented nuclear fusion… if you rape kids, you belong in prison or a shallow grave, full stop.
Hahahaha! Sorry Ben. I would say that your post was the “doom and gloom” post.
“ When you have an illegal alien driving around with a fake CA driver’s license in an 18-wheeler and making illegal U-turns that kill American’s, that’s probably a good sign that change is needed.”
Did you read the article? It never mentioned “illegals”. It never mentioned “fake licenses”. Nor did it mention “Americans being killed”.
What the f*ck is wrong with you? Get a grip man.
I cannot speak to comments by BenW, but he is referring to recent accident on the Florida Turnpike where driver missed his exit and made an illegal U-turn at a break in the median barrier for ‘Official Use Only’.
The driver was Indian and had a CA driver’s license. To my knowledge, I have not read that the driver was an illegal alien and I do not know if he had a false license. He did violate a rule by making an illegal U-turn which resulted in a minivan plowing underneath his trailer killing 3 occupants. How he ever made it back to CA after the accident is beyond belief. He was arrested in CA and is supposed to be extradited back to FL for prosecution.
Not sure I believe this story. Why? Because truckers are well regulated and 18 wheelers are electronically monitored for the time the driver is on the road. All tied to the truckers drivers license.
It happened last week. Just google ‘Florida Turnpike U-turn accident deaths’ Multiple articles and news videos will detail the incident.
THE GUY ENTERED THE US ILLEGALLY IN 2018
HE WAS ISSUED WHAT SHOULD BE, BY ANY REASONABLE PERSON, AN ILLEGAL LICENSE IN THE STATE OF WA & CA. ON WHAT PLANET DOES IT MAKE SENSE TO ALLOW ILLEGALS TO GAIN THE PRIVILGE OF DRIVING LEGALLY? IT DOESN’T AND ONLY FOSTERS THIS NOTION THAT THEY HAVE RIGHTS THAT SHOULDN’T BE GIVEN TO THEM.
FACTS ARE FACTS.
Facts are facts. Who is posting “Doom and gloom”. Seems like you.
You’re climbing on Trump’s hate bandwagon. I bet your heart rate jumps dramatically when you are posting in all caps like that. Not good for your health Ben. Hate will consume you. Maybe it already has.
It will soon be fixed. Able-bodied welfare recipients who watch TV all day long will clearly be better truck drivers.
U-turns in an 18-wheeler? LOL
I do consulting work for attorneys representing trucking companies and their liability insurance (which is a huge expense). If you think companies are willy-nilly hiring illegal immigrants off the corner to drive a big-rig with their company name on the side or with their federally regulated CDL interstate cargos (when lawsuits target them after the fact), you’re not in the real world of transportation, insurance or finance
He worked for a chameleon carrier, one that can close down in and in an instant another company doing the same thing pops up. Apparently the carrier’s insurance had just been canceled.
I don’t know anything about the company.
He was an illegal alien, with, in my opinion, an illegal CDL driver’s license that the Trump 1.0 admin denied him.
He attempted a u-turn and killed 3 Americans.
It’s all documented.
=that these 7.2M unemployed Americans
hahah! ahahah! 7.2 mil???
buddy, you obv have no idea about things in USA
======
in USA there are about 250*260 mil adults, 20+ years old
and only 150*160 work officially , and about +- 100 mil do not not work , and are not counted in labor force.
====
this stat is confirmed by simple fact, about 40% of of all Americans DONT PAY FEDERAL INCOME TAX (OR HAVE ZERO LIABILITY)
SO YOU do math, and calc real number of unemployed !! and unempl. rate!
alx
ps
all figures are from labor stats department site aka BLS
Yes, those lazy stay-at-home Moms will make excellent truck drivers.
It’s a truckin’ disgrace.
The excuse – truck driver is going to say some (Magnificent 7 tech co) AI map / directions program told him to make the u-turn there. That’s why the expressions on their faces looked like they’d lost a video game rather than caused a tragedy.
So no different than some good ole american driving with a license or insurance. When the wreck the will flee the scene. Go somewhere and report the car as stolen.
That ive seen.
So you’re somewhat more concerned with the ~4500 people a year who die in truck accidents than the three people who died in a truck accident? What is wrong with you? Dying at the hands of a US citizen with a proper driver’s license is a noble death.
There is NO shortage of truck drivers. The trucking industry has been in recession the last few years.
Read what the truckers have to say about the visas: https://www.reddit.com/r/Truckers/comments/1mwoi37/marco_rubio_effective_immediately_we_are_pausing/
You’re posting on an economics blog.
By definition, there is no shortage of anything IF the price is right. Sure US truck drivers will show up in droves if you pay them a lot (as will any employee).
But someone has to pay that bill; such a visa denial is not much different than a tariff. Prices will rise. Those receiving the higher wages/prices will be ecstatic; those paying them will be upset and maybe out of business.
Just as an example to counter your argument: the U.S. has an actual shortage of primary care physicians. Not enough to go around no matter how high the wage. Not true of truckers, but whatever.
This is a job many unemployed natives would do for a couple years or until autonomous replaces human drivers.
Good luck. How many people can pass the drug test or in some cases the tsa screening.
These charts have huge swings. I would not use them as recession predictors. Class 8 sales in 2018 plunged far worse than the present contraction but there was no recession.
Wrong!
In 2018 sales fell from a major spike higher in truck purchases. They did not fall as far either.
price sensitivity and substitution marketing factors I read where very few understand or just ignore these principles. Example, when butter prices rise. a price sensitivity level is reached. Consumer then purchase margarine
as it is a substitution good. So when the price of imported products rise there is a sensitivity level whereby consumers reduce or stop purchasing. This also happens when there is a substitution good for the product. Bottom line the import tariff has minimal affect on the products price other than the provider sees a drop in sales.
Next, when importer loses sales some companies drop price to avoid losing sales.
You and the media only assume a tariff of 10 or 15% will translate into a similar increase in the consumer price and ignore the real world dynamics of price sensitivity, substitution and provider discounting..
And when companies, especially low margin companies, can’t make a profit they usually cut back on employees first. Unemployed people don’t buy as much stuff while they’re on unemployment benefits. Multiply this through this through the economy and you get a recession.