Pressure is on Justices Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Alito.
Trump Moans on Truth Social
Trump Truth Social Link: ALL TARIFFS ARE STILL IN EFFECT! Today a Highly Partisan Appeals Court incorrectly said that our Tariffs should be removed, but they know the United States of America will win in the end. If these Tariffs ever went away, it would be a total disaster for the Country. It would make us financially weak, and we have to be strong. The U.S.A. will no longer tolerate enormous Trade Deficits and unfair Tariffs and Non Tariff Trade Barriers imposed by other Countries, friend or foe, that undermine our Manufacturers, Farmers, and everyone else. If allowed to stand, this Decision would literally destroy the United States of America. At the start of this Labor Day weekend, we should all remember that TARIFFS are the best tool to help our Workers, and support Companies that produce great MADE IN AMERICA products. For many years, Tariffs were allowed to be used against us by our uncaring and unwise Politicians. Now, with the help of the United States Supreme Court, we will use them to the benefit of our Nation, and Make America Rich, Strong, and Powerful Again! Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Mark Levin Chimes In
Mark Levin Truth Social Link: THE APPELLATE COURT MAJORITY TARIFF DECISION WAS WRONG
The appellate court majority that ruled against most of the president’s tariffs has it wrong. Whether you like tariffs or not, the act at issue does, in fact, grant the president broad powers to declare an emergency. Even more, the Constitution, under Article II, grants the president broad powers to make foreign policy. The president’s lawyers are obviously aware of this, which is why the executive orders at issue rely, in part, on serious foreign policy considerations, including, as an example, Mexico, Canada, and China, which the president has determined are not doing enough to prevent the flow of deadly drugs into our country. The combination of broad authority and Article II powers trump the issues raised by the court’s majority. Moreover, judges should not be the final decision-makers about such matters as they’re exercising authority that was never delegated to them, and they should not substitute their own policy preferences for the president’s. The check here is Congress — that is, if it wishes to amend the law or pass a new law curbing the president’s power here. That said, Congress does not have boundless power, and it could run into separation of powers issues, given Article II and the president’s foreign policy authority. The Supreme Court will, once again, rule on this. In the past, Justices Thomas, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh have noted the broad authority of the president in circumstances similar to this. I expect Justice Alito would concur.
Trump “Re-Truthed” the above post, also putting pressure on the named justices.
Levin Irony
The irony in Levin’s post on separation of powers is amusing. It would behoove Levin to understand that ability to tariff Constitutionally belongs in the Senate.
Moreover, Congress cannot cede that authority even if it tried. That would take a constitutional amendment.
In this case, as in Biden’s foolish attempt to forgive student loans, a “major question” issue comes into play.
Like all Trumpian suck-ups, Levin wants Trump to get away with such nonsense, but not Democrats.
Interesting Set of Justices
Levin stated “In the past, Justices Thomas, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh have noted the broad authority of the president in circumstances similar to this. I expect Justice Alito would concur.”
Lovely. But that’s only four isn’t it? Are all of those certain? Importantly, even if so, who is the fifth?
Trump Needs an Activist Court to Win
I discussed this on August 27, in Can Trump’s Tariff Revenues Help Pay for the Federal Budget Deficit?
It would be amazing if the appeals court ruled for Trump. But the key question is how the Supreme Court will rule.
Recall that the Court ruled against Biden on student loans largely on the basis of the “major question”. There are even more reasons to strike the idea here.
However, although it’s constitutionally clear, a ruling against Trump is by no means certain.
Hypothetical Vote Count
The three liberal justices are certain to vote against Trump. That means we need two more.
Pair 1: Barrett and Roberts
Pair 2: Barrett and Gorsuch
Pair 3: Gorsuch and RobertsIf I am correct, I think Barrett is already on board. I can’t help but think Roberts will go with the majority, and perhaps decide.
If it’s pair 2, add Roberts for a 6-3 decision. The bigger the majority, the more cover for all of them.
So expect an appeals court ruling against Trump. Then we will see if common sense, precedent, major questions, and emergencies apply to Republican presidents as well as Democrats.
The Appeals Court ruling went as expected, and called in advance.
Surprise Not
Please consider what I wrote on June 10 in Justice Department Asks Appeals Court to Let Trump Tariffs Remain for Longer
The word tariff is not even in the act. Nor are synonyms like duties.
Second, there is no emergency. An emergency is a sudden unexpected crisis. Trade deficits have existed for decades.
Third, there is no unusual or extraordinary threat. Trump has even imposed tariffs on nations with which we have no trade deficit including islands inhabited only by penguins.
Fourth, there is lack of a clear authorization by Congress to grant Trump such authority. The applicable principle involved is called “major question”.
The Tax foundation estimates the cost of Trump’s tariffs to be over $2 trillion. If that’s not a “major question” then what is?
This is a similar to the setup in which Biden attempted to suspend student loans that would also have an impact of $400 billion.
Trump seeks a bigger than any previous Supreme Court “major question” ruling including student loans.
Finally, we get to the issue of delegation. The Supreme Court has ruled that Congress has no authority to simply giving away its constitutional rights.
Unfortunately, that does not stop other foolish actions.
The Appeals Court noted the major questions issue and Biden’s student loans.
On June 6, I noted Reciprocal Tariffs Are Dead, but Trump Has 7 Other Options to Discuss
Trump wants to maneuver around the court’s tariff crackdown. His success will be limited.
Although his “success” will limited, Trump can and will do many more damaging actions.
In fact, he already has.
Trump Will Double Steel and Aluminum Tariffs to 50 Percent
On May 31, I commented Trump Will Double Steel and Aluminum Tariffs to 50 Percent
Insistent that US manufacturers who use steel will pay still more, especially the auto industry and small businesses, Trump Says Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Will Double to 50%.
Steel and aluminum tariffs are incredibly stupid. However, they are far more likely to stick because the Supreme Court may not want to buck Trump on matters of national security.
Activist Court?
Trump moans about “activist courts”.
The problem is we have an over the top, arrogant, activist president who does not give a damn about the constitution.
Reader Comments
I added what follows as an addendum to my post yesterday, Full Appeals Court Rules 7-4 Against Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs
Comment to Mish: “Like the democrats, Mike, you are putting your personal (and selfish) agenda above the good of the country.”
My Reply: Like an fool who cannot think, you do not respect the Constitution.
It is that simple. I outlined the case 100% correctly, in advance, got a 7-4 ruling on that.The court even cited the case I mentioned of Biden’s student loans. If the court allowed this, then it should have allowed student loans. And who knows what Democrats will do if the President is always right.
I suggest you read the ruling, what I said in advance, and explain how it is “selfish” to respect the Constitution.
I have no selfish agenda in this. You have what is known as TWS. Trump Worship Syndrome and it has poisoned your mind.
Levin is afflicted my coined term, TDS Type II, alternatively TWS.
To repeat: The problem is we have an over the top, arrogant, activist president who does not give a damn about the constitution. And neither do his TWS followers.
If Mark Levin @marklevinshow wishes to debate me on this, I am game.
Debate on Mr. Levin?
Isn’t attempting to influence a court a crime? Asking for a friend.
Ask any GOPer, it’s fine when Trump does it. Or let’s hear from the ones who think it is wrong.
Agree totally with your analysis. The appellate decision is correct. We have an activist president who wants to push the envelope constantly regarding the extent of his authority. I think that’s fine, but the issue is not, contrary to what he says, what is good for our country. He needs to convince Congress.
If the SC simply follows the Constitution and does not bow to pressure, their ruling would be 9-0.
Clear proof it won’t be 9-0
There’s really only pressure on 2. Thomas and Alito are with Trump, that’s it. So, no pressure on them. Only on Gorsuch and Kavanaugh. Maybe Barrett if one thinks shes really a true Trumper as well.
the courts have been just legislators. they can twist the constitution to ratify anything from torture to tariffs. to believe otherwise is pure rubbish and ignorance of all supreme court decisions the past 2 centuries. i’m a betting man, and would bet on scotus to do pedotus trump’s bidding.
Well, if your conjecture is right about SCOTUS being a twistable rubber stamp, I sure hope they come through on this one with a rubber stamp.
MAGA!
it is not conjecture. it is a reality. i do think putting border taxes on top of income taxes is idiotic.
It’s a conjecture, dude. Stop acting like you’ve got it all figured out.
just review all the decisions in past 200 years and it’s obviously just legislating. they just make up what is and what is not constitutional. from slavery to torture to bush v gore………
Your reductionist logic isn’t making you look good to the majority of your audience.
Ever since https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison in the name (at the time) to avoid mobocracy. If you want to overturn this, You can. This would mean retabalishing all the red flag gun law and campaign finance cap on pacs. Give full state rights (all states would be able to pass any laws as long as their local judiciary allows it and the only limit would be federal forces)
Rather than blocking constitutional review, the real solution is https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incomp%C3%A9tence_n%C3%A9gative. A huge difference in how to determine if something is consitutional or not to prevent judge (in the case politician) from interpreting the constitution (using their own interpretation) while still striking blatent unconstitutional laws.
if anyone has any question the SCOTUS could rule trump’s border taxes either way, you haven’t been paying attention to us history for the past 250 years.
I did. Since https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison in 1803 always had the opportunity to strike down laws and executive orders.
Things like the major question doctrine are recent.
The case of Richard Nixon tarrifs was legally accepted through a lesser act with 1 arguement it was intended for 4 months (compared to being permanent outright with Trump).
If Trumps insane tariffs were working, private manufacturing would not be in a decline.
The simple fact is that US private manufacturing peaked under Biden and now under the TACO, businesses can not predict what they are facing as he flip flops about like a fish out of water…
Trump rolls out a Red Carpet for Putin (who kicks him in the teeth) and threatens Canada (our best trading ally) with invasion.
Trump reminds me of a toddler wandering around in the White House with a machine gun, unable to control his childish impulses.
Rome wasn’t built in a day, Frosty.
Manufacturing share of the economy peaked in 1955. Manufacturing employment peaked in 1973. Look it up on the FRED website. These are structural changes having nothing to do with Biden or Trump. No president can stop the tides.
I agree with your toddler analogy!
His flip flops on the tariffs is insane. No manufacturer is going to build in the USA if Trump can just change his mind in a week or a month or two.
Trump remind me Cleon in Athens. His policy to turn the Athens alliance of cities formed as defensive against them along his athens first (though not used under a name like this) like fiscal policy turned to result in Sparta first.
Both were very popular among the poors. Both were emptying the aim to protect democracies (though at the time there were no fake democracies or a system of fake elections).
Though while having different downside the Athenian system of sycophants likely prevented corruption as what s happening under Trump (as anyone could prosecute anyone else instead criminal/felonial prosecution being a privilege of the state).
Sparta used the argument that athens wasn t about protecting democracies.
Polyps on Trump’s head and nose. If the supreme court rule against him, it might accelerate his death. JD Vance will take over and cont his legacy. The Just Not Trump Syndrome (JNTS) will evaporate. Congress will cooperate. Peace on earth. If Trump fights back and beats the dems for his legacy the JNTS will cont for three more years. The dems will be considered more crazy, evil and harmful to working people, to blacks and Latinos, in 8 Nov 2026.
I know that I am a “working person” and employer. The last people that will benefit from Trumps lack of understanding of economics are the working people or farmers.
Over 20,000 people in the oil patch have been let go and capital investment in new oil and gas wells is down by almost $400 billion and rig counts have fallen 15 out of 16 weeks in a row.
Farmers have watched in dismay as corn and soy prices have fallen by 25% while regular gasoline (in the midwest) has risen from $2.95 on the day of the election to $3.49 today ~ thanks to Trumps insane tariffs on Canada.
Fertilizer and herbicide prices are rocketing up and most farmers will lose money on their corn and soy. Our former asian trading partners are rejecting food exports from the US and buying from Brazil, Argentina, Russia and Australia.
As far as this working American is concerned ~ Trump hates us!
>
Beacons’s Shenandoah sucks the Gulf of America from 30,000 feet below. CVX, BP, Shell…suck suck suck.
There are plenty of hungry people in the USA. Stop all agricultural exports except for humanitarian reasons, and many problems disappear. Water and labor shortages evaporate.
Cutting usaid which was buying spare capacity in the us was short sited.
Or it was wisdom. Agribusiness can’t survive without free water and illegal labor.
Gosh. It’s all so simple. What’s stopping you then? Go ahead and make it happen. Then we will all thank you for solving multiple problems.
Centrifugal forces are breaking us apart. SCO leaders meet Shi in Tianjin. On Mon they will celebrate eighty years after WWII victory with a military parade. What a contrast. While Shi is trying to shape the world, Trump is trying to shape the US, for better or worse.
Another silly article by Mish . The 7-4 decision was the 7 justices appointed by Dem were the 7 votes against Trump the 4 other votes for Trump were appointed by Republicans and voted in favor of Trump . So the supreme court would vote 6 -3 in favor . Mish if you believe that if this was a Biden policy those same 7 would have voted against Biden having the power you are living in lala land . To suggest the courts are somehow not political and have not been so for a long time is laughable. The Judicial branch has had so many rulings against Trump that have been overturned on appeal they are so many it would be hard to count . So which court is political ? This appelate ruling or the soon to be ruling over turning it by the supremes .
I suppose a person that supports a child sex trafficking pedophile that states publicly that “I have no age limit” would write that.
What happens to the “Rule of law” and constitution when Republicans turn fascist?
America’s image as a strong and reliable trading partner is falling so fast under Trump it is pathetic. The entire world is laughing at Trump and his flailing army of sycophants. Now even Greenland refuses to re-fuel American warships or let them into ports where there are not US military bases.
Trump might be making lots of money for himself and his sycophants, but the rest of America is heading straight down the tubes!
Where’s the evidence, Frosty?
Where’s the indictment?
Where’s the guilty verdict?
Rule of Law – of as if Brandon was the master of that. His DHS guy ignored federal immigration law for 4 years.
GOP
Guardians
Of
Pedophiles
Woohoo, Billy Bob Jr!
Sling it man!
Two of the four were appointed by Obama. The other two were appointed by W, and his family can’t stand Trump.
Always nice to have the facts.
I’m surprised the appeals court went 7-4, I thought it would be a slam dunk against Trump. This may indicate the supreme court which is far more politicized may rule in his favor.
What about the constitution and rule of law?
Thus far, Trump has quite a few rulings go against him, and he hasn’t disobeyed any of them.
More bs. I posted a bunch of them earlier. Go look it up. I can’t be bothered to spoon feed you.
Do you always lie so blatantly? You’re turning into another Doug.
They are of little use to the GOP now
How on God’s Green Earth do you know ANYTHING about the makeup of CIT?
At least BillyBobJr above potentially did some research to determine the 7 that voted in favor of upholding the lower court’s ruling were appointed by Biden.
That photo of Trump looks AI-generated and retouched. Look at him live today and you will see the difference. Trump is a president on his last legs. Vance said this week he is ready should anything happen. Just as Biden faltered with his health early in his presidency and was protected, the same has happen to Trump. The problem is it will easily be known given Trump’s penchant for wanting to be visible. He actually can’t live without it. At some point, I think Trump’s health does him in in the next 12 months and Vance is sworn in as President.
Fantasizing now are you, CO?
Are the bruises and the swelling fantasy? Everyone has seen what meemaw looked like a month or two before she went to her forever hole in the ground
BTW, I do suspect the court will rule in favor of Trump based on the authority previous presidents had in trade negotiations. The constitution is fairly clear that the president has powers on trade that cannot really be questioned.
I Agree!
I Agree!
This crap about student loans as an example is ridiculous as well. Harris / Biden tried to “FORCE TAXPAYERS” to pay for Loans that Students willfully took out, but didn’t want to pay for after the fact. being the children that they are, The Harris / Biden Administration just handed them all money hand over fist with no credit checks, or payment plan, or in many cases any explanation what they just signed up for.
Did they know that Home ownership would not be an option for them for decades if ever? Too much Debt, and no savings won’t get it done! Did they understand that anything of value could possibly be taken from them as a result!
Of course not, or They May have Chose Differently, one would Hope Anyway… this was a Con, backed up by another Con. Fortunately the Taxpayers were spared paying for there kids and others too because Harris / Biden said so!!
Sure, the president may, and should be the party who negotiates a trade agreement, but it should be up to the legislature to ratify such a treaty. Not only is this how it’s supposed to work under our constitution, but also how most democracies in the world do it.
It would be funny, if the Supreme Court ruled against Trump and all trade resumed with no tariffs. At some point, the SCOTUS cannot let congress abdicate its responsibility of governing no matter who is in charge.
What in the same hill are you talking about? Congress has long since abdicated its responsibility. All they do is pass CRs & Reconciliation bills.
CONGRESS WOULDN’T TOUCH THIS KIND OF TARIFF OVERHAUL WITH A 1,000 MILE POLE.
This is the reason Trump declared the emergencies & EOs, because Congress is paralyzed.
WHO benefits from the tariffs?
Cui bono?
The American people? We’ll pay higher prices due to tariffs, sooner rather than later. Jobs won’t come back because Americans aren’t willing to get paid less to do hard, repetitive and even dangerous, work. Conversely, Americans in their overwhelming majority CAN’T perform high-tech jobs such as making semiconductor chips. We don’t have the the industrial base in place for either category of work, to start with.
Big business, international corporations? They profit from the status quo, and they were the ones who set up the factories overseas, in the first place. If Apple wanted to make iPhones in the US; or Nike, sneakers here, they would have done so?
The US government? By antagonizing the rest of the world economically, forcing them to transact and save LESS in dollars aka FRNs? Definitely NO, because there will be LESS demand for our debt, causing price inflation if the Fed responded by monetizing the US debt in ever greater amounts.
So who do the tariffs benefit if they will harm the United States? Certainly not the Chinese, Russians or Iranians who cannot impose said tariffs.
Who controls the US congressmen and US senators who by law can legislate tariffs? Who controls the US president who CAN (attempt to) impose tariffs? Common knowledge FACT: AIPAC and the Israel lobby. The (((tiny hat))) club which you ain’t in it.
We’ve seen the enemy and it’s NOT us.
Where art you’ve been all this blogs life?
Telling it like it is, how it is, what it is why it is Where it is but…
What is the definition of is?
Thanks for being like minded, we ghost get lonely from time to….
I was reading the blog without commenting before. It’s quite disheartening. 99 percent of the posters either have no clue, and/or are endeavoring to suppress reality. Mish contemptuously dismissed my first couple of posts. Wolfstreet is a total disaster though. Wolf censors everything and blocks everyone he doesn’t like, always insulting people and calling them names before he blocks them. Here, we basically just get ghosted. I gave up on zioedge years ago. Welcome to the brave new world my friend.
Please come back. Be the leader of the pack. Grow the seeds of hatred on this blog !
There is no limit to the extent this deranged imbecile will go to get what he wants.
Or what his handlers want.
I have been rooting for Trump’s tariffs to play out as long as possible. It is a real world economic experiment. We will see whether they help or hurt. And we will learn a lesson.
I can get behind that.
Serious chin-check for SCOTUS.
Why didn’t any red state AGs join the fight?
The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), enacted in 1977, gives the US President broad authority to regulate economic transactions once a national emergency is declared. It allows the executive branch to take action against any unusual and extraordinary threat to America’s national security, economy, or foreign policy that originates abroad.
Since its enactment, it has become the cornerstone of US sanctions policy. Initially, IEEPA was used mainly against foreign states and their governments, but over time its scope expanded to include non-state actors such as terrorist organisations, cybercriminals, and individuals linked to the International Criminal Court.
As of January 15, 2024, presidents have declared 69 national emergencies under IEEPA; 39 of these remain in effect. These emergencies often last close to a decade, though some have continued for much longer. With its sweeping powers, IEEPA remains one of the most significant tools for imposing economic sanctions and shaping US foreign policy.
Blasphemy.
“ Why didn’t any red state AGs join the fight?”
Because they know if they did, that Trump would come down hard on their state in every possible way he could because he is a vindictive prick.
That’s why.
Or maybe they agree with his trade policies.
Any why would this be the case? Because they know he’s getting enormous commitments from trading partners to invest in the USA. An where are they going to invest? IN RED STATES! WOOHOO!!!
That’s just as likely.
You really think anyone is dumb enough to invest in a country that has tariffs set up to make producing literally any physical product more expensive? Just so they can have access to a market that’s currently in a recession and will be until after Trump is gone? Guess there’s a reason you’re not a CEO.
Dump or not, he’s lining up trillions in commitments.
Like everything though, time will tell as to how much NEW money is invested in the US.
My estimation is that it’s S’ton more than what would have happened under Comrade Kamala.
Tarriffs seam to work well for every other country
But that’s the hilarious part about Trump. Trump says the tariffs are going to decrease the high trade deficit (which is an obvious national emergency that nobody noticed for the last 80 years) AND they will increase foreign investments in the US economy. Given that the current account is the flip side of the capital account, this is intellectually embarrassing. Populists like Trump and his supporters live in some kind of alternative reality that is at war with facts and logic.
“Trump and his supporters live in some kind of alternative reality that is at war with facts and logic.”
It’s called 5D (five dimensions of dumb). Most people might suffer from normal 3d dumb thinking but MAGA takes it two dimensions further. MAGA has extra-sensory dumbness extending to two additional dimensions to go full 5d dumb.
When Trump was president the first time, he bragged about Foxconn building a plant in Wisconsin and “investing” $10 billion and bringing 13,000 jobs. As soon as Trump left office, the project was canceled.
Watch a similar repeat of it all – guaranteed.
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2023/11/10/what-happened-to-foxconn-in-wisconsin-a-timeline/71535498007/
There is the playbook for how every company that “promised” to invest will bail out. Just wait and watch.
I like the story about tesla solar roof which is genius in concept and non starter in execution.
After they get the enormous tax breaks and taxpayers subsidy they can’t get anyone to buy oy even Install these great concept solar roofs…
Having to have X amount of employees at the facility they bring in a bunch of data entry cubicle sorts to keep the gravy flowing.
No genius solar roofs coming put of that great concept.
Prolly was oh Bummer the puppet at the time.
Anyway, I’ve executed my exit plan, if there is a civil war here we’re doomed, otherwise clear skies and smooth sailing.
It’s been a national emergency ever since China joined the WTO in the 2001. Our politicians & corporations have looked the other way, however it took COVID for the conservative side of the balance sheet to act on the national emergency, realizing how vulnerable we are to China. China got away Scott-free with killing 7M+ people worldwide, including my mom.
My MAIN CONCERN is for America to become self-sufficient in producing or friendly sourcing any & all strategic goods. If this happens, then the trade deficit will go down.
I’m a populist who likes most of Trump’s policies just not Trump, and yes, I do live in an alternate reality. The MSM and Trump haters like you are happy with the status quo. You all are perfectly happy selling us out to the CCP. In my alternate reality, America comes first & will do ANYTHING to fight back against China & the Cartels. Over time, American’s will be forced into choosing which reality they want to live in. I’ve already made my choice.
“ maybe they agree with his trade policies.”
Maybe? Lol!
And maybe Santa will bring you more gifts this year.
“ they know he’s getting enormous commitments from trading partners to invest in the USA”
Like Q1 2025? Foreign investment dropped 34% from Q4 2024. Heck, even domestic US industry is reducing investment in 2025 (other than AI) because of uncertainty from Trump’s tariffs.
Time to wake up and smell the coffee Ben. Wishing, hoping and pretending something will happen is a piss poor strategy.
Wait, you’re quoting Q1 2025? HAHA!
That’s hilarious, PapaD.
As we always say, time will tell. We’re in the 1st inning still.
And if SCOTUS rules against Trump, then the grand experiment ends.
And you’ll never have your answers.
What were you expecting me to quote; next year’s numbers?
Oh, that’s right. That’s what you do. “MAYBE they will go up a gazillion percent.”
I don’t do hopium.
If you’re talking about CY Q1, then yes, please quote another quarter. Q1 was massively distorted.
There are 10 different reasons why domestic US industries are reducing investment. Here’s #1:
We are very late in the expansion cycle, so businesses are starting to hunker down for a potential recession. As such investment is dropping off.
Are tariffs part of the top 10? Absolutely, but let’s stop acting like it’s the only thing effecting investment.
That’s just hogwash.
Then why don’t you show me some real investment numbers that prove your claim. Not some fantasy that you hope will happen. Because your fantasy means nothing to me.
Another issue surely not anticipated by the geniuses implementing rapid fire changes to the tariff policy:
“Twenty-five nations have declared a temporary suspension on all postal shipments to the United States amid tariff uncertainty. As of August 29, 2025, the United Stated will remove the de minimis exemption from law that allowed goods under $800 to enter tax-free. Tariffs range between 10% to 50% on the declared value, or $80 to $200 per parcel. Goods above $2,500 are subject to a Merchandise Processing Fee and additional formal customs checks. Processing delays and increased costs were incurred immediately, but now, a growing number of nations have decided to simply discontinue parcel service.”
Sorry about the C&P, but I could not articulate it better.
Link for more information:
25 Nations Suspend Postal Service To The US | Armstrong Economics
This is something that’s threatening to shutter several small businesses I interact with that depend on getting artisan made wares from Canada. A $20 product is now $60+ because DHL is the only one shipping. I’m expecting to see several of these businesses fail out now, very sad.
Yes – I have already written a post on this – Not posted yet. Later today or tomorrow.
Glad you’re doing it because everyone else in economics seems to be in La La Land about where this will get small businesses in only a few months.
Plenty of great artisan made stuff created in Americam. Boo hoo another middleman bites the dust.
I mentioned the de minimus exemption in Mish’s prior post. It’s arguably a WAY bigger deal that what the court ruled regarding tariffs.
Most Americans who order online stuff from other countries (including things on Amazon) are going to be affected by this. It’s going to be a much bigger deal than tariffs on steel / cars etc that most people don’t deal with in their day to day lives.
Yes – I have already written a post on this – Not posted yet. Later today or tomorrow.
I will either add that info or do two posts.
Thanks!
Sorry if other followers have mentioned that it seems obvious that this administration is about getting rid of all the surviving small businesses and farms so they can all be done corporate style.
My brother bought the farm my dad grew up on in Kansas and owned it for several decades until gates’s strawman made him an offer he couldn’t refuse.
All these little artsy fartsy boutique shops could be gobbled up same way.
Not a new strategy at all, just a different motivator.
If small farms and rinky dink boutique shops get t rump subsidies I could guess it would be those with connections, otherwise Berkshire will wrap them up and hire the owners pushed to BK as employees.
The Boomer dream concept of commerce is sunsetting. The following generations will do much better.
Mission accomplished. Now those dollars will be spent elsewhere other than foreign trinkets.
Trump says “If these Tariffs ever went away, it would be a total disaster for the Country. It would make us financially weak, and we have to be strong.” Forcing manufacture in America via tariffs is a not a tail wind for American industry as over time, protected industries lose competitive edge and disadvantage American consumers via higher costs.
Consider the Jones act that required US flagged (built in America and manned by US citizens) ships for coastwise (between US ports) transport. The result over time was over-priced US flagged ships and a US ship building industry now a miniscule fraction of its size prior to the act as they cannot compete globally with foreign built vessels. In the recent presidential meeting, Trump talked of buying ships built in South Korea, essentially admitting US ship building capability has been gutted. This is a prime example of Trump and his advisers not having an understanding of economic history or ignoring it.
My belief is tariffs along with all protectionist measures are a hinderance to American exceptionalism over time.
Yep. Only economic morons like Trump would think broad general tariffs on almost everything are good for the American economy.
This is like watching a slow moving catastrophe. Hard to look away. And fascinating to watch play out.
Taco’s brain needs rewiring as he is apparently getting every issue backwards.
The US shipbuilding industry would have crushed anyway because of the massive amounts of subsidies given to their shipbuilding industries by Just about every other seafaring nation.
What US shipbuilding industry is that? During ww2 we built a thousand ships per year. In the 1950s and 60s, 100 to 200 per year. Since 1970; around 10 per year. (Equivalent to 65k gross tons). It’s been 55 years since we had a shipbuilding “industry”.
In contrast, China 33,000k GT (500x the US); S Korea 19,000k GT; Japan 10,000k GT, Philippines 800k GT, Italy 400k GT.
PapaDave, you proved my point. An industry highly capital-intensive like shipbuilding cannot survive in an international environment where governments give large subsidies to support their own shipbuilding industries without giving subsidies also. We didn’t want to do that so we off-shored. Consequently we have a small merchant marine and very few trained sailors and shipmasters. Our commercial shipbuilding industry is still considerable precisely because of the Jones Act of 1920 that gave them a protected market. Without the Act we would have had no commercial shipbuilding at all and just about everybody acknowledges this fact. For now we build a lot of specialized vessels but no mass-produced ones like China does. Some great news has been coming out about our commercial shipbuilding industry. If you follow the industry you would know what I am talking about.
Where we are very good and large is naval shipbuilding but we need more volume. Fortunately we are finally setting in motion shipyard upgrades to do that.
The same thing happened after WW I. We built too many ships and no one needed them so the industry collapsed. In the mid 1930’s FDR seeing that war was brewing pumped in money to rebuild merchant marine capacity just in time. Reminds me of something.
Your point was that the US shipbuilding industry was going to crash. My point was that it happened 55 years ago.
Now. What is your next point. That the US needs to subsidize shipbuilding if we want it to return.
I would agree that “if” we want a vibrant shipbuilding industry, then the government will need to subsidize it. This may be necessary if it is truly a matter of national security.
And we would need to overcome a lot of other obstacles: not much US shipbuilding infrastructure is left, and what’s left is almost obsolete, so it needs to be rebuilt and I don’t think the private sector is interested; skilled labor shortage (we would need to bring in a lot of skilled foreign tradesmen); supply chain infrastructure would need a massive rebuilding as well.
We do not domestically produce the grades of steel needed for ships and other military needs. And we cannot produce the large quantities of aluminum and copper needed as well. Expanding all of this will take decades and require more massive government subsidies.
Not to mention the energy needed to do all this. A single aluminum smelter needs the same amount of electricity as 8 AI data centers or a large city. And we need to build perhaps a dozen of them. And then we need to subsidize that electricity by 90% in order to make the aluminum smelters cost competitive. And we will need to build out massive amounts of renewables to get that electricity, because we don’t have enough gas, and nuclear takes 15 -20 years to build.
So it’s possible to revive the US shipbuilding industry. But it will require massive subsidies and a dramatic increase in our deficits over the next few decades.
So it’s a choice. Are we willing to do all this and increase the deficits by a lot?
Canada does produce a lot of low cost aluminum because of hydro energy in the province of Quebec which when/if Canada breaks up would like to have privileged access to the US market. I was surprised to hear talk of that up there but it makes sense.
“And then we need to subsidize that electricity by 90% in order to make the aluminum smelters cost competitive“.
I don’t know where you get your information but that completely false. The cost difference is much smaller than you think.
Chinese smelters are only competitive because they use cheap dirty coal and can dump the waste wherever they want while we can’t. Even then some US smelters that use hydro do have similar breakeven costs as those in China.
As for steel the US actually does make the high-grade steel that goes into ships so your data is incomplete. The plants are not massive like those in China but they can expanded. Many aluminum smelters are mothballed and can be started up again and new projects are starting up. Basically to double capacity will take about 6 years.
You are a very pessimistic fellow. You are always saying “it can’t be done” without diving down into the nitty-gritty. If you do you find out it can be done and at a lower cost than you can imagine.
Yes. Canada produces a lot of low cost aluminum because the smelters in Quebec have long term agreements for cheap hydro electricity at 2-3 cents per kWh.
But Trump doesn’t want Canadian aluminum. So he puts 50% tariffs on it.
The first new aluminum smelter being planned in the US in 45 years is by Century Aluminum. They received DOE approval for $500 million in funding in March 2024. Phase one, site selection, environmental, permitting, and engineering began in January 2025. At this point they have narrowed their selection process down to two possible locations.
Holding things up are guaranteed access to abundant and reliable cheap power at 4 cents per kWh or less. Current available electricity is priced at 12 cents to 15 cents per kwh. An announcement could come before year end. Once construction begins, it is estimated to take 6 years to complete.
That will be the first new smelter in 45 years “if” it goes ahead. Then we need to build another 8 or 10 after that.
Papa Dave proved my point, not yours. If foreign countries needed to subsidies their ship building industry for it to survive or compete with ours, then over time it would have suffered just as ours did with Jones Act protection. Subsidizing an industry at taxpayers’ expense is basically encouraging malinvestment. Currently our shipbuilding industry survives on one big subsidizing customer, that being the US government purchasing military equipment. Without the military, our shipbuilding would not be considerable, it would be a bunch of yacht and jet ski manufacturers.
Your statement: “Without the Act we would have had no commercial shipbuilding at all and just about everybody acknowledges this fact.” That is absolutely false. Government for the most part keeps heavy shipbuilding alive in our country. Any and all protectionist measures make the industry protected weaker over time. Care to name any specialized vessels that contribute to our considerable industry? Papa Dave’s production numbers dispel that notion completely.
Your last paragraph is telling, just taking your word at face value, seems like the government needed to pump money into the collapsing ship building industry as a result of its misguided protectionist measure. Seems more likely to me that FDR realized that subsidizing heavy shipbuilding was needed to save it from government intervention.
You make Doug78’s point.
In what way? Are you also saying that the US currently has a large shipbuilding industry that is about to crash?
Human microbiome scientist Wang Leyao leaves troubled US government agency for ChinaTop epidemiologist is latest researcher to return to China after the Trump administration withdrew millions of dollars in academic funding
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3323594/human-microbiome-scientist-wang-leyao-leaves-troubled-us-government-agency-china
Nothing to study anyway. All these problems could be solved with organic sustainable farms rather than corporate farms manned by illegals. The biom is being destroyed by big agri and no study or supplements are going to save it. Back to nature is always the cure. A Sierra Club bumper sticker on a Boomers car or a research grant will be ineffective.
Terrorist groups don’t care about the law, but when they are losing they use the law
and the media to defeat their opponents in the public opinion.
Shouldn’t you be hiding under your rock? Terrorists gonna getcha… look out!
Turns out the Trump tariffs are: (i) an intellectual embarrassment; (ii) an economic disaster for the American consumer and small businesses; and (iii) have alienated our closest allies, while China watches the whole tariff show with glee. If the Supreme Court confirms the illegality of the tariffs, it will actually do Trump a big favor.
There are no debates in a fascist dictatorship.
Mark Levin scared Trump. When the 100Y Uniparty dictators tried to impeach him Mark Levin screaming about the constitution rendered him impotent.
The US supreme court already told Obama federal judges: shut up, don’t try to rule this country.
Hey Mish, I’ve been reading your blog since nearly the very beginning (20 years!!)
While there are many many things I disagree with you about ideologically, I’ve always made you a daily read because 1) I can tell you genuinely care about people and 2) you always apply the same standards across the spectrum.
I also feel our views are increasingly aligned. Some of the purity you’ve expressed in the past has softened, just like some of my idealism — in both cases I think less because our fundamental beliefs have changed and more that we live in insane times.
Anyway, this is just a note of appreciation that you’re still going strong, especially since you’re getting such vicious reactions.
Best wishes for you and your family.
Thanks!
And best wishes right back.
Thanks. Without u I wouldn’t know what Mark Levin is saying. Please debate him every week to see who is smarter, sharper and who is right. Calling him TWS isn’t good enough. U have a lot in common with him.
Four judges, who presumably have copies of the United States Constitution and graduated from a school where they sort of taught law, and maybe even a love for their country, voted this abjectly unconstitutional nonsense is legal (likely descended from Tories who liked being taxed without representation and continued drinking tea). Proving yet again the only people who actually have Trump Derangement Syndrome are the people who like him.
I had to read that twice to understand what I think you are saying.
Are you saying: “4 of the 11 justices who sided with Trump have TDS Type II or TWS”
Creative ambiguity.
Yes, that’s what he’s saying.
>> had to read that twice to understand what
“Three times the charm.” 😉
what is TDS Type II or TWS bs.
Look in a mirror
Like it. Couldn’t have said it better. The profound is often cleverly disguise. The only wordsmith I could think of who could have said it better is Allen Grenspan who I mostly disagreed with. I don’t mean that as a pejorative because I do agree with you. I am just putting your cleverness up there with the Giants of Speak. I put your comment up there with another legend, Yogi.
Democrat judges serving on the SC tend to carry the water for their Democrat president. Will conservative judges will do the same for Pres. Trump?
Are you saying Trump is crazy conservative?
That’s an interesting take.
John Roberts on Gilligan’s Isle.
Trump didn’t write that tweet. Are they Weekend at Bernies-ing him on twitter?
I noted Levin wrote that post.
Did you miss the line “Trump Re-Truthed It”
That counts
Ah… missed that bit.
Trump has been noticably missing in general though.
Saw pic of him going golfing from yesterday, so he’s still waddling around.
Love it! Great post!!!