He should read this blog, or ZeroHedge, or OilPrice. Here’s a 10-point cheat sheet.
We Have a Spike in Oil Prices I Don’t Understand
“We have a spike in oil prices today that I don’t really understand.”
A Handy Suggestion
Oil Cheat Sheet for Bessent
- Oil and diesel prices are global.
- The strait is not open. The strait was open before Trump started this idiotic war.
- Diesel is rising more than oil or gasoline due to refining capacity issues.
- Ukraine has knocked out much of Russia’s refining capacity.
- Russia was a big exporter of diesel but now has export bans.
- US diesel exports are at record highs.
- Repeat after me, the US is not immune to global price shocks. We are not energy independent as Trump claims.
- Treasury yield manipulations will not fix the oil markets.
- Treasury yield manipulations will not fix a spending problem in Congress either.
- Treasury yields are rising due to oil price inflation, tariff-sponsored inflation, rising deficits, and inane Trump economic policies in general.
One might have thought that a US Treasury Secretary would understand this.
Then again.
Requirement for the Job
A requirement for working for Trump is belief in every idiotic thing he says or does, no matter how stupid or contradictory.
Actually, that is the only requirement.
Once you understand the one requirement for working under Trump, you understand why Bessent has to say he does not understand why oil prices are rising, even if he does.
Q. Does Bessent understand?
A: What does it matter?
All This Science I Don’t Understand
And all this science, I don’t understand.
It’s just my job five days a week.
Spotlight on Understanding
It’s not Bessent’s job to understand. More accurately, it’s his job to not understand.
For everybody else, to understand in detail why diesel is rising much faster than the price of gasoline, please see US Diesel Crack Surpasses $100 a Barrel for the First Time, Farmers Suffer
Record high crack spreads. Serious economic ramifications.
Related Posts
August 14, 2026: Trump Says “I’ll Never Apologize, You’re Just Paying a Tiny Bit More”
Trump just handed the Democrats another midterm election talking point.
August 19, 2026: Debt topped $40 trillion today. But let’s discuss what really matters.
What market manipulation is next? Diesel crack spreads?
August 20, 2026: Good Morning Farmers. Diesel Is Only 27 Cents from a Record High
And crude is soaring again so Diesel rates to jump again tomorrow.
All Bessant has to do is to keep the wheels from falling off the bus before midterms are held or canceled on the basis of whatever pretext.
What happens after that is of no concern to him or to Trump.
Bessent got the job because he knows how to manipulate currencies, especially for economic warfare. He had lots of experience with that being Soros’ long-time wingman. I have full confidence that this expertise has been used against the Iranian rial. Asking him about oil is outside of his wheelhouse, but I’m sure he would love to wax poetic in a multi-hour treatise about strategies to undermine the ruble.
Not coincidentally, this is from Scotty several hours ago: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the Trump administration will unveil new economic actions against Iran on Monday, vowing to “squash the economy” of the regime.
As they say in West Virginia: “Bessent doesn’t know a bit from a water barrel”.
+ As per Dr. Anas yesterday from US perspective diesel requires medium sour and US SPR only has about 20M B left of that the rest is light sweet.
Hello. Perceptions management meet Reality.
Bessent is a hedgie.
He thinks markets work on psychology, manipulation, and headlines.
He believes fundamentals of supply and demand are old fogey concepts for outsiders and the uninitiated in how things actually work behind the curtains.
that is correct. trend following is the easiest way to trade. but absolutely nobody on planet can price in if the sultan or prince or billionaire decides to sell outright or short, a gazillion shares of the stock you are long.
And inside information.
Of course, Stupid people provide an honest product or service at an honest price,
Smart people grift. If you are successful enough, they call you a “visionary”, a “job creator” and other laudatory terms.
The Oil situation is purposeful. TrumpCO wants to TACO his Trading Pit daily. “OPEN” (Go long), “IRAN SAYS NO..” (GO SHORT). Tight Stops. 100,000 Contracts (I only Trade 40 due to Margin Restrictions).
I use Measured Moves, and OPTIONS to enter and exit ALL trades: Stocks, Commodities, ETF’s, Metals, etc. I teach a closed Group of 425 guys (All retired, Rich Boomers and Gen-Exers) and we use a closed Microsoft Teams application for Windows. There is a Chat function and we share charts.
I run the Education part but some of the Guys are WAY better speaking to the Charts, finding Congestion points and Ambush Levels (also Targets and HARD STOP-OUT POINTS). We sell Puts to acquire stocks and sell Calls to unwind positions.
I have surgery coming up, so I am bailing out for a month. Heart issues. Dang it. I love the room.
There are Irish, Fins, Germans, Americans, Swiss, Swedes, Welsh, British (some smart guys)…we are closed to new Members. NO DUES, just collaborative (Great Ideas spring from those Swiss and Austrian Guys).
We have a German member – – who lives in Hamburg – – that writes an insider’s Newsletter for M.E. Oil producers/interests. He tells them where to hedge, where to Buy and Sell Options, and Volume is up to them. He is paid well.
good luck with your surgery.
to underscore and paraphrase a previous commenter. israel is a bitch colony, created by the british as useful idiots in the sea of oil, that the brits, french and amerikans believe is their’s for the taking. our family profited on the brutal dictator, the shah of iran. like many wall street families did.
If Israel is a “bitch colony”, why does the United States frequently go to war at Israel’s behest, while Israel stands by on the sidelines? Why does the US frantically bully its vassals on Israel’s behalf? Why does Israel spend so much time and influence on the Americans? Why does Israel and only Israel get to demand double standards and special pleading?
For that matter, why did the british put Israel so far from the actual oil?
Or here’s another:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/08/the-eus-von-der-leyen-commission-is-considering-sharing-eu-citizens-most-sensitive-data-with-israels-genocidal-state.html
Notice that the data only flows one way?
I bought more and more oil with every TACO, I am doing great. I took classes in Mideast politics in the 80’s and we went extensively into the topic of Hormuz and Iran’s strategic card they held. As soon as the strait was closed I knew trump was either lying or Iran was bluffing. All Iran needs to do is stall as long as they can and blow the world economy and they get whatever deal they want. They must have read “The Art of the Deal” and focused on the leverage in negotiation chapter….
Trumps theory if you hold out long enough crash the world economy countries will be for ed to join him in his war.
Or Iran. Do you go with the one with a bunch of WWII-style aircraft carriers or the smart one?
A quote from Winston Churchill seems pertinent here:
”The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer master of policy but the slave of unforseeable and uncontrollable events”.
Winnie should know. He supported eleven wars. Most of them were supporting the invidious British Empire.
Bismarck said something along these lines: “It is easy for a statesman to call for war, warming himself the while by the fireside of his own rhetoric, but the statesman who starts a war had better have a reason for war that will hold water after the war is over.” Bismarck fought three wars and won them all.
I don’t think Trump is quite as good a military man as Bismarck, but he is still pretty good. I have seen a short summary of the career of William III of England (also known as William of Orange): “He was a skilled general, and although nearly always beaten in the field, he was able to make more use of his defeats than his enemies were of their victories.” Trump doesn’t have to have a clear-cut military victory to achieve what he wants: the security of Israel and freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf. I don’t think the security of Israel should be America’s first concern, but what do you do when you’re an empire? If you abandon Israel today, you might abandon Taiwan or Australia tomorrow.
WTF? Exactly how is Trump a ‘pretty good military man’? Was it his draft dodging as a Vietnam era young man, or his more recent experience ordering the dropping of bombs on countries or groups that displease him? Or both?
Also – as Mish states correctly quite often, the effing “Persian Gulf of America” (TM) was open and had full freedom of navigation prior to him dropping yet more bombs on Feb 28. Is this an example of his military greatness? And as for Israel, you are basically saying that the Israel tail is wagging the American dog. “Abandoning” Isreal – aka Israel has bombed the shit out of Iran not once, but twice, so we join in for shits and giggles. Fantastic, how great a situation is that?
That’s what the Iranian Regime gets for trying to build a nuclear weapon. We should have done the same to North Korea.
> how is Trump a ‘pretty good military man’?
“Discretion is the better part of valor.”
Trump mastered that. Shouldn’t it count for something?
[ducks head to avoid flying shoes from fellow barflies]
Trump couldn’t carry Bismarck’s jockstrap.
I think they were knickers back then, but the point is valid…
Excellent quote Arthur but I’m afraid that your response goes precipitously downhill from there.
Hahahahahaha! Good one! I needed a good laugh.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/does-president-trump-have-any-idea-what-passports-are-for/#comment-449328
Pedophile defends Israel, more news at 11
Didn’t Bismarck sink?
Trump has destroyed the former freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf.
Israel is now less safe, as the US is withdrawing assets and debasing, and Israel has virtual no shield against Iranian missiles. Defeat is definitively not helping the goals you enumerate.
I was hoping for some insight from this to understand why oil is so low. I think it should be around $140…
Supply vs Demand
Gobal oil production, plus strategic reserve releases total around 90 mbpd currently vs the normal 103 mbpd.
The world has 103 mbpd of refining capacity, but so much of it is offline, that only 85 mbpd is currently processing oil.
So 90 mpbd of oil available, but refineries can only process 85 mbpd of it. The surplus of oil is helping to keep the price of oil down.
Demand for refined products is still over 90 mbpd vs 85 mbpd of refinery output. So prices for refined products, like diesel, are increasing.
A barrel of diesel was going for $185 two days ago.
Papa, any feel for how long those refineries will be offline? Any favorites? I own VLO, CVX and CVE and might consider buying more if diesel keeps going up.
I have no idea how long various refineries will remain offline. Political risk is impossible to predict. My gut tells me a long time though.
I like all those names. Plus Imperial Oil and Suncor.
thanks for the stock names fellas. i like CNQ and ET, also. i also like FCX for a metal play.
Agree. Good names.
I know many here won’t agree (especially Mish) but until markets correct, we should reinstate the ban of exports of petroleum products before Obama lifted them.
“US diesel exports are at record highs.”
Nice that US farmers and transportation now pay record high diesel prices here because the oil companies want to make more money selling it overseas.
From CoPilot:
A U.S. diesel export ban would not fix high U.S. diesel prices.
Based on current global conditions, it would likely:
The U.S. benefits from exporting diesel; banning exports would backfire.
Yes, it would because US domestic prices would disconnect from global pricing as it did for decades. In the immediate, it would create a glut of diesel that would drive down prices since manufacturers would need to sell their stocks locally. This is a Copilot hallucination
I agree with the CoPilot summary.
Any glut would be short lived.
Obama did not lift them. Republican congress did. Obama a just did not veto.
Should have said during the last month’s of Obama’s term.
Well, referring to it with the name of only one reigning politician implies blaming that one politician or his party. Instead, i suggest framing it as “the regime lifted the ban in [year]”.
#1 is a major problem and causes ARTIFICIAL price hikes that have no relation to reality or supply!
#2 is incorrect. 5 million barrels coming across the Strait of Hormuz DAILY ain’t chopped liver!
I mean, 1/3 of pre-war (aka ‘pre-conflict’) oil getting through the ‘Persian Gulf of America’ (TM) is a victory? Pray tell how is this so? How much blood and treasure are we expending to get 1/3 of the pre-war oil out of the Gulf? How many Saudis, Kuwaitis, not to mention civilian sailors have been killed, maimed, or otherwise harmed, beyond the American casualties. I’m sure you think the Iranian casualties are just a by-product and not worthy of any concern – “se la guerre”. But perhaps the other casualties are also just a by-product and not worthy of concern?
Not to mention the expenditure of arms and the breakdown by overuse of our military. Again, is that just a byproduct and acceptable – eyes on the prize?
But yay, let’s assume that it really is 5M bpd coming out, it’s all good, eyes on the prize.
Well said Mike
No it wasn’t. It was a completely misinformed post.
The Iranian Regime can resolve the situation immediately by stop impleading ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, Agreeing to forgo development of nuclear weapons and stopping support of its terrorist proxies
But nooooooooo. Instead they think they can play the 5’3″ crazy guy with the big mouth. That might have worked against other Presidents but it isn’t going to work against Trump.
Say what? News flash – weapons are made to be used when necessary, not hung on the wall or stacked in warehouses where everyones says “don’t those bombs look purrty?”.
Have you tried inviting him?
Scott.Bessent@treasury.gov
or
https://x.com/SecScottBessent
The fact he doesn’t understand oil is OK: it’s not his job. The concern is that he doesn’t understand 40T government debt. Putting oil on the burning house isn’t going to extinguish the fire, and maybe that’s how oil comes in.
120,000$ for every American.
+17T since 2020.
And he branches out into oil?
Bessent is wealthy; he doesn’t need the job. So why did he take it? Power? What power do you really have when you can’t speak the truth?
He took the job for the same reason they all do. They can realize all their investment gains TAX FREE when they serve in the cabinet
Look up how much Hank Paulsen saved when he left goldman
ChatGPT disagrees. Great deal if you’re right
>> What power do you really have when you can’t speak the truth?
In a land ruled by habitual liars, you’re not allowed near power unless you habitually lie. You gain more wealth and power by lying habitually but as convincingly as possible.
Why would he want to speak the truth? How does that in any way benefit him?
Between Bessent admitting he doesn’t know the first thing about his job and Darline Graham admitting she doesn’t know squat about national security. I’m really starting to see more honesty from the GOP that they are in fact total morons who pander to literal booger eaters with stories about spooky trans’d kids and marauding Mexican banditos.
You missed Trump finally saying something 100% true:
‘‘ I will never apologize ’’
And: “Everything is fake.”
Y’know, I was reading Finviz earlier and came across this very “special” individual’s blog.
https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/how-bessent-is-establishing-a-new
I think this is a great summary of what Trump, Bessent, and all his retarded cronies think. In fact, they’re pretty much openly saying it: The free market is bad because China. Never mind that China currently has more internal competition in their economy than the too big to fail model of the USSA. No no, we have to turn into a fascist command economy to compete you see! We have to manipulate bonds or else China wins.
This is all a brilliant counterattack to China!
A favorite quote of mine from said short bus writing:
How could we all not see?? It’s the Hyperliquid in the toilet that will save us! Brought to you by the same minds that proclaimed injecting bleach cures COVID and all men should take
HRTtestosterone to become more manly.Fair competition is for suckers. Smart people prefer games that are rigged in their favor.
I’d call them good shucksters but the problem is that a good shuckster knows when to leave town before people clue in. You generally don’t buy a mansion in a town full of angry suckers and losers.
You buy a private island, preferably one in a pliable jurisdiction.
That assumes whoever comes next in America can’t touch you. A risky bet given that everyone else on earth hates this administration just as much. Maybe they’ll all shack up in Eswatini?
Can’t read that blog because it is paywalled.
Refuse to read that blog because his POV is USA markets were free and competitive and free of government manipulation before China. Typical successful wall streeter POV.
US says it caused dollar shortage to trigger Iran protests: What that meansIn a stunning admission, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington engineered a dollar shortage to send the Iranian rial into freefall that culminated with protesters taking to the streets
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/2/13/us-says-it-caused-dollar-shortage-to-trigger-iran-protests-what-that-means
If we think diesel prices are high now?
Just wait until Canada puts export fees on its crude or there is a hurricane in the gulf.
At some point, I think panic buying will set in and that’s what will cause a huge melt up then meltdown. I suspect when diesel hits $7 or $8 is what will trigger it and I think it happens before December.
Got calls? puts? long/short/sideways hedges?
Just stopped by to issue a 3-star Mishelin award. Keep it up Mish!
Oh and to remind everyone…
Do worry, Trump, Walrus, GOP, and democrats will find a way to make things even worse.™
I’m unsure you need to remind everyone daily. Maybe wait for days when the regime isn’t breaking something new… 😉
Trump still has 30% support so yeah, need to remind them.
Bessent’s face brings to mind the saying “Wrecked him? It nearly killed him!”
Bonus: He’s a dead ringer for the Bugs Bunny abominable snowman
Quibble:
Ukraine hasn’t knocked out any of Russia’s refining capacity. The CIA and MI6 have.
So Russia, with its vaunted KGB/FSB apparatus, has lost 40% of its diesel refining capacity due to the CIA?
I think you need a couple more layers of tinfoil on your propeller beanie.
That’s a lot more believable than the idea that a plucky little band of ragtag neonazis did it, all by their lonesome, no CIA.MI6 help whatsoever, nosiree!
Vatnik shills will, as finster is demonstrating below, cry about how impossible it would be for anyone to punch them in the mouth. Because they’ve done so great against the “Nazis” so far on the ground.
It goes like this: invade county, get walloped, cry to mommy you got popped one because everyone is so mean to poor Israe- Russia. Vatniks run the very same play as Israel shills but have the gall to think they sound any more convincing than the guy crowing on about how poor poor Israel was just defending herself.
Just on the evidence, they are a lot closer to achieving their goals than the US in Hormuz or Afghanistan or or or.
Goal is demilitarization & denazification, in first instance UA, but now NATO since UA is de facto NATO, as Zelensky likes to say.
The American plan for Germany after WW2 was demilitarization, denazification, decentralization, deindustrialization [4 D’s], but Stalin intervened so the Morgenthal plan (turn Germany into agrarian statelets) was never executed.
You just taught me a nuance. Thank you.
Argument by ethnic slur.
Nice.
40% — any evidence ?
You do know that the drones are produced in Europe (assembled in UA), as well as the USA (Hornets by Eric Schmidt).
Target decks and navigation is in hands of American ISR — that’s why they are continually monitoring Russian air space with planes and satellites — to chart possible seams in constantly changing Russian Air Defense configuration.
Tollsforthee and Creamer still want to believe that WWE and Marvel Comics are real.
Too much Fox News bro. That or put the crack pipe down
Russia started importing diesel, which it used to export.
the market believed the US story that “shadow fleets” were passing through Hormuz at night until it became an obvious lie
I think the traders on Wall Street have a right-leaning worldview. It gives them a particular susceptibility to Trump’s pronouncements.
Reality eventually intrudes.
I didn’t know it was an obvious lie. I think <oilprice.com> repeats it.
This post is very much on the mark. The Trump administration is in effect a grand coalition between morons (exemplified by Trump himself or Hegseth) and phonies (exemplified by JD Vance or Marco Rubio). Bessent is solidly in the phonies camp. He knows exactly why oil prices have surged again, but he needs to pretend that he doesn’t know, otherwise the morons are mad (or worse) at him.
Bessent’s boss thinks it’s possible to jawbone rates and prices to where they want them to go, and sometimes it works.
Bessent can’t point out the elephants in the room like Mish just did. Boss would get mad.
Selling your soul to the devil is never a good idea.
Bessent lent a veneer of financial acumen to this administration. That is in tatters. He is impotently leaking tepid air on everything now, like a punctured old tire. He is damaged goods. (Thinking of Colin Powell in the W. Bush admin.)
Maybe Bessent is so much inside the Trump fishbowl that he truly can’t understand things as obvious as this. People have remarked that Trump has a formidable reality distortion field,like Jobs or Elon. Trump’s hasn’t worked on me for one second, ever. But I don’t have that proximity, because I am not that stupid or weak. But I am constantly astounded at what my fellows will swallow, just blank out on, or belligerently defend.
That means there are trading opportunities.
Bessant is about as bright as a dark night.
He strikes me as the sort to walk outside at night, stare at the ground, and wonder why he can’t see the sun on the other side of the planet. Either that or he thinks the earth is flat. Either or.
Bessent Says He Doesn’t Understand Oil Prices? Bessent knows Trump signed a MOU with Iran —but Trump quickly showed no intention of following any parts of that Agreement? DUH!
He might want to research a concept known as Supply and Demand, which if understood might explain this strange phenomenon of oil price increases
But oil prices in fact aren’t rising that much. Diesel prices might be.
oh, hooray oil prices aren’t rising much… too bad I can’t fuel my car with oil, but need that pesky gasoline and rely on diesel to get everything else like food.
Pretty simple, depress supply, price goes up. Add risk to supply, price goes up. This guy and frankly most in the Trump administration make the 3 stooges look competent.
trump is curly, of course.
Peter Thiel as Moe?
Apparently, he doesn’t know much about the US Treasury bond market either.
It’s really quite simple. Oil tankers don’t want to get blown out of the water by traveling the ‘safe’ Straight of Hormuz.
The Iranians are right, the Trump admin is a clown car
I could have told you that!!!
Poor clowns, always getting insulted!