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Alaska Senate Math. Are the Betting Markets Too Confident of Peltola?

November 12, 2026

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6:03 pm

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3 comments

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Economics

My answer is Yes. Yet I expect Peltola to win.

Current Votes

I created the above spreadsheet from New York Times Alaska Senate Results.

It’s impossible to know what numbers to plug in for >95 percent. Is it 95.1 percent or 99.9 percent?

My key assumption is current percentages hold reasonably close.

After Assigning Votes

My projection assumes two things, both likely wrong: the percentages hold, and >95% = 100%.

On that basis I estimate Dan S. Sullivan picks up 12,712 more votes and Peltola picks up 16,837 more votes for a further gain of ~4,000 votes.

That’s sure to be wrong as it undercounts Dan S. Sullivan-leading districts. But by how much?

If we go to the other extreme and assume >95 percent really means exactly 95 percent, Peltola picks up an additional ~2,000 votes net instead of ~4,000 votes.

Either way, Peltola picks up votes but we are headed for a runoff.

Betting Markets

While I admit Peltola is a huge favorite, I struggle with 99.6 percent odds.

Of course, my math could be wrong, but it does not appear Peltola can win this in regulation time.

Chart Repeated for Ease of Discussion

Betting wisdom appears to be that Peltola will get enough Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. votes to get over the 50 percent threshold first.

Let’s say you agree. Are you 99.6 percent confident of that?

However, the above math is based on what I see. Someone might have far superior information than I presented above.

Ranked Voting Pecularity

What if Heikes came in fourth instead of third, and the vast majority of his votes were for Dan S. Sullivan?

I do not believe that is likely, but it is a plausible outcome.

If the counting stops at 50 percent. We may never even know the answer to that huge “what IF”.

Expect a Messy Challenge

Unless Peltola can cross 50 percent in regulation, there is going to be a messy challenge from Trump and Dan S. Sullivan.

And I don’t think Peltola can cross 50 in regulation. So, I do expect a mess that goes all the way to the Supreme Court.

I hope my math is wrong and Peltola wins in regulation. But if not, I expect her to win in overtime.

Meanwhile, a good bet is on something that is underpriced (even if you expect to lose). So, as a bet, I suggest Dan S. Sullivan is somewhat underpriced.

Regardless, there is no law that prohibits Daniel J. Sullivan from doing what he did. So even if this does go to the Supreme Court, expect Peltola to prevail.