In the 116th Congress is scheduled to meet on January 3.

House Makeup

Republicans lost their Majority in the House which will make passing legislation much more difficult.

There is [1] vacant seat that is in dispute, North Carolina District 9, amid allegations of illegal activities committed by Republicans.

Political drama came more than seven weeks after Mark Harris, the Republican nominee for Congress in the Ninth District, seemed to defeat Dan McCready, the Democratic candidate, by 905 votes in November. But Mr. Harris’s apparent victory was soon overshadowed by allegations that a contractor for his campaign engaged in illegal activity to compromise the election. According to witnesses and affidavits, the contractor, L. McCrae Dowless Jr., and people working for him collected absentee ballots in violation of state law.

The election board refused to certify Harris and that board is now dissolved. It's pretty clear Harris' staff violated election law, but there is no agreement about what's next.

Senate Makeup

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Republicans increased their majority in the Senate. This will likely make judicial appointments far easier than the sad saga of Judge Brett Kavanaugh.

Legislation

Unless the Senate is willing to compromise with House Democrats, passing legislation will be difficult.

A government shutdown is underway, and Trump vows to keep it until he gets his wall. Nancy Pelosi will again become Speaker of the House and she says there will be no wall compromise.

Someone will eventually blink, either Trump or Pelosi, but polarization and political fighting will rise.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Rosy Look of the Ballooning Deficit

Thanks to tax cuts and spending increases, US deficit estimates are spiraling up. Let's investigate some estimates.

Climate Change Moves to the Forefront of Biden's Legislation

Democrats and Republicans reached a Senate power-sharing agreement and Democrats will control the committees. Climate change moves to the front of the agenda.

Australia's Housing Bust Impacts Retail Sales, Recession Coming Up

Australia's housing bust now impacting retail sales. Except for food, retail spending has been negative for 3 months.

Tax Cut Math: 6 Republican Senators Have Concerns, It Takes 3 Kill It

The House and Senate each have different tax proposals. The Senate may not pass anything.

Brexit Extension to January 31 is Meaningless

Johnson agreed to a January 31 extension and lost a bid today for an early UK election. Setback appearance deceive.

Free Trade Good or Bad? Trump's Amazing Impact on Republicans and Democrats

The shift of Democrats towards supporting free trade, and Republicans the opposite is a sight to behold. Blame Trump.

Anything Congress Can Do, Trump Can Do Better

Concern over tariffs erupted in Congress today. Republicans are openly feuding with Trump. I offer a musical tribute.

Yield Curve Steepened Since January 3 but Portions Remain Inverted

On Jan 3, portions of the yield curve inverted with the Fed Funds rate. That's gone, but other inversions remain.

Trump Warns Big Death Toll Is Coming

The focus is on the next two weeks. Projections are ugly.