December 19, 2018 Rate Hike Odds

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Nearly everyone expects the Fed will hike tomorrow. So do I. If so, the policy will be 225-250 basis points (2.25 to 2.50 percentage points). Then What?

December 11, 2019 Rate Hike Probabilities

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Assuming there is a hike tomorrow, a year from now the market expects the Fed will either hold pat or cut. There is only a 40.5% chance the Fed hikes next year.

For now, the market assumes a hike is far more likely than a cut, but comments tomorrow from the Fed will likely move all of these percentages.

It won't matter what the Fed says tomorrow if a recession hits in 2019, and I think it will.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Rate Cuts More Likely Than Hikes in 2019

The market has now totally priced out rate hikes for the December 11, 2019 FOMC meeting.

Fed Cuts Interest Rate 3rd Time in 2019 With Hints of a Pause

The FOMC committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent.

Fed's 2019 Interest Rate Expectations vs Market's Expectations

The Fed's view of where interest rates are headed in 2019 are quite different from market expectations.

Rate Hike Odds Dive: Any Rate Hikes in 2019? Sucker Rally? Musical Tribute!

Stocks recovered from a huge move lower after a speculative WSJ report on a new data-dependent Fed. Any hikes coming?

Rate Cut Odds Soar on Weak Data

A month ago, Fed Fund Futures implied a 72.9% chance of at least one hike. They now imply a 38.9% chance of at least one

Yield Curve and Spreads Ahead of the Fed Rate Cut Decision

Here is the final snapshot of the yield curve and spreads ahead of the first interest rate cut since 2008.

Fed Cuts Rates 1/4 Percent, Three Dissents: Dot Plot Suggests No More 2019 Cuts

The Fed cut interest rates 25 basis point to a target of 1.75% to 2.00%. There were three dissents.

Interesting Rate Hike Odds: March favors Hikes, December Favors Cuts

Fed fund futures show a hike in March is more likely than a cut. In December, the opposite is true.

Expect Fed Baby Step Cuts Followed by Shock and Awe Panic

The Fed has convinced the market that baby step cuts are the order of the day even as the yield curve screams for more.