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December 19, 2018 Rate Hike Odds

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Nearly everyone expects the Fed will hike tomorrow. So do I. If so, the policy will be 225-250 basis points (2.25 to 2.50 percentage points). Then What?

December 11, 2019 Rate Hike Probabilities

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Assuming there is a hike tomorrow, a year from now the market expects the Fed will either hold pat or cut. There is only a 40.5% chance the Fed hikes next year.

For now, the market assumes a hike is far more likely than a cut, but comments tomorrow from the Fed will likely move all of these percentages.

It won't matter what the Fed says tomorrow if a recession hits in 2019, and I think it will.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock