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35% Face Major Loss in Michigan Poll

A new Michigan poll shows 35% of residents fear a major loss due to Covid-19. Another 12% foresee a catastrophic loss.
Author:

Please consider the Detroit Regional Chamber Statewide COVID-19 Impact Poll taken April 15-16.

Highlights 

  • 29% of respondents are furloughed, laid off, or unable to work.
  • 27.3% of respondents that were working prior to the outbreak have been forced to file for unemployment. 
  • 42.6% of respondents that were working prior to the outbreak, are now furloughed, laid off, or unable to work. 
  • 69% of furloughed or laid-off workers face catastrophic to major financial impact. 
  • 28% of respondents are worried about putting food on the table. 
  • The majority of respondents, 50%, believe Michigan is already in a recession.

Economic Impact at Individual Level

  • 12% said the impact was catastrophic.
  • 35% said the impact was major.
  • 36% said the impact was minor.
  • 15% said there was no impact at all.

Millennials had the hardest impact. 21% of respondents under the age of 30 said that the impact was catastrophic. 

Food on the Table

  • 54% of furloughed or laid off respondents are worried about putting food on their table.
  • 54% of African American respondents are worried about putting food on their table.
  • 45% of those aged 18 to 29 are worried about putting food on their table.
  • 40% of those aged 30 to 39 are worried about putting food on their table.

Unemployment

Respondents that felt forced to file for unemployment were asked whether or not they have been successful. 

  1. 48% of furloughed or laid off have been successful in filing for unemployment.
  2. 37% of furloughed or laid off have NOT been successful in filing for unemployment.
  3. 15% of these respondents are not sure if they have been successful in filing for unemployment. 
  4. 52% of unemployed workers under the age of 30 have not been able to successfully file for unemployment.

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Calculating the Unemployment Rate

Point two highlights a huge pool of unemployed who have not yet filed and thus do not show up in existing claims. That is important for estimating the unemployment rate.

Recall that the unemployment rate is not determined by actual claims, but rather by the result of the household phone survey by the BLS.

Over 25% of Michigan Workforce Filed For Unemployment

On April 14, I commented Over 25% of Michigan Workforce Filed For Unemployment.

At that time I came up with an unemployment rate of 28.9% assuming there would be another 250,000 claims.

Point two suggests something on the order of 400,000 unemployment claims to come, not 250,000.

New Calculation

1 million newly recorded claims + 400,000 claims to come + 180,000 existing unemployed / 4.95 million workforce = 31.9% unemployment rate.

The new calculation assumes that the poll is correct and that unemployment claims will match how people respond to the Household Survey.

That may not be the case. Regardless, Michigan rates to be a total disaster.

Mish

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