by Mish

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the FRBNY Nowcast updated their GDP assessments today. Let’s take a look.

GDPNow Latest forecast: 2.5 percent — December 22, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.5 percent on December 22, down from 2.6 percent on December 16. The forecasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures and real intellectual property products investment growth increased modestly after this morning’s GDP and personal income outlays reports from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). These were offset by modest declines in the forecasted contributions to growth from residential, nonresidential equipment and inventory investment after the aforementioned BEA releases, this morning’s advance manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, and yesterday’s existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors.

Nowcast Highlights December 23, 2016

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 1.8% for both 2016:Q4 and 2017:Q1.
  • This week’s news had no impact on either the Q4 or the Q1 nowcast.
  • Small negative contributions from personal income data were offset by small positive contributions from new single family houses sold.
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I believe the models are likely to converge lower as they did last quarter.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

FRBNY 4th Quarter GDP Nowcast 1.6% vs. GDPNow 3.1%

In sharp contrast to a GDPNow forecast of 3.1 percent for 4th quarter GDP, the FRBNY Nowcast Model estimates 4th quarter GDP at a mere 1.6 percent.

Third-Quarter GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 2.5%, Nowcast 1.5%

The volatility of GDPNow vs Nowcast is once again on display in recent weeks.

GDPnow, Nowcast Boost Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates

GDPNow upped its 4th-quarter GDP estimate to 3.3% from 2.9% a week ago. Nowcast upped its forecast to 4.0% from 3.9%.

GDPNow, Nowcast Near Convergence in 4th Quarter GDP Estimates

Following months of wide differences between GDP forecast models, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast models are in near convergence at 3.3% and 3.2% respectively.

1st Quarter GDP Estimates: ZeroHedge, Mish, GDPNow, Nowcast, ISM, Markit

On Friday, April 28, the BEA will release its preliminary estimate for first quarter GDP.

Third Estimate of 4th Quarter GDP is 2.1%

Given that GDP is one of the most revised measures, the BEA renamed “final” to “third”. The third estimate is 2.1% just a tick over the Econoday consensus estimate of 2.0%.

Nowcast 3rd Quarter GDP Estimate 2%, GDPNow 3.7%

We have two revisions coming for second-quarter GDP estimates even as time rolls on. The third-quarter is already a month over. GDPNow has its first estimate, a whopping 3.7%. The GDPNow estimate is 1.7 percentage points higher than Nowcast.

Dueling Forecasts: GDPNow 4.2% vs Nowcast 1.8%

For the first quarter, the initial GDPNow forecast was 2.3% on January 30, 2017. The GDPNow forecast spiked quickly to 3.4% then crashed to a final estimate of 0.2% on April 27.

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.