Treasury Curve Details

  1. There is now a solid wall of inversions. Every Treasury Note and bill from three-year down is inverted with the next lower duration except for the Fed Funds Rate.
  2. The 10-year yield is inverted with 6-month and shorter durations.
  3. The 30-year long bond dipped below 2.0% for the fourth time and is just 6 basis points from a record low.

The same thing happened on January 31.

At that time I discussed My Conversation With the 30-Year Long Bond.

My Conversation With Mr. Bond

Hello Mr. Bond. You just cannot seem to stay away from 2.0%.

We missed you. Welcome back. Will this be a longer visit? Are you calling for a recession?

Unfortunately, Mr. Bond did not answer. He just winked.

Today, I asked Mr. Bond the same questions.

Once again, he did not answer directly.

Instead, he just shrugged his shoulders and responded with three questions of his own:

  1. Did you notice Half the Population of China, 760 Million, Now Locked Down?
  2. Is Japan Headed for Recession, or In Recession?
  3. Do you really believe the US can avoid a recession?

With that, Mr. Bond said: I have to run, but here's another question for you to think about: If not now, when?

On his way out the door I thought I heard him singing Do It To Me One More Time by Captain and Tennille, but it might have been Tonight's the Night.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

My Conversation With the 30-Year Long Bond

For the third time, the yield on the 30-year long bond dipped below 2.0%. I asked Mr. Bond some questions.

The Name is Bond, Long Bond

Stories about the death of the bond market have been circulating since 1992. Every one of them has been wrong.

I Expect New Record Low Long Bond Yield

Every attempt of the 30-Year long bond to break out of a decades-long downtrend fails. At the end of October, the long bond yield was 2.96%. Six days into November, it's back at 2.80%. Meanwhile, short-term rates continue to rise. We are a recession away from a new record low yield on the long bond.

Currency Wars: Greek 10-Year Bond Yield Dips Below 2% as Bets on Rate Cuts Rise

For the first time ever, Greek 10-year bond yields dipped below 2%.

Record Low 30-Year Bond Yield and Record High on Gold Coming Up

Once again, the yield on the 30-year long bond is below 2.0%. I expect a record low yield shortly. Gold will benefit.

Number of Yield Curve Inversion Points Rises as the Long-Bond Yield Dives

The US Treasury 5-year yield is now inverted with 3, 2, and even the 1-year treasury yield.

First Time Ever: Entire Yield Curve Crashes Below 1.0%

The 30-year long bond yield crashed below 1.0% this morning to a record low 0.958%.

Lacy Hunt: Secular Low in Long-Term Treasury Bond Yields Remains Ahead

Secular Low in Long-Term Bond Yields Coming Up Hoisington’s bond managers, Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington, doubt the global economy will rebound soon thanks to low industrial output, heavy debt, and the commodities collapse. No Inflation In Sight, Say Two Bond Masters.

On Average, How Long From Inversion to Recession?

Let's take a look at the last six recession. How long did it take from inversion to recession?