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Treasury Curve Details

  1. There is now a solid wall of inversions. Every Treasury Note and bill from three-year down is inverted with the next lower duration except for the Fed Funds Rate.
  2. The 10-year yield is inverted with 6-month and shorter durations.
  3. The 30-year long bond dipped below 2.0% for the fourth time and is just 6 basis points from a record low.

The same thing happened on January 31.

At that time I discussed My Conversation With the 30-Year Long Bond.

My Conversation With Mr. Bond

Hello Mr. Bond. You just cannot seem to stay away from 2.0%.

We missed you. Welcome back. Will this be a longer visit? Are you calling for a recession?

Unfortunately, Mr. Bond did not answer. He just winked.

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Today, I asked Mr. Bond the same questions.

Once again, he did not answer directly.

Instead, he just shrugged his shoulders and responded with three questions of his own:

  1. Did you notice Half the Population of China, 760 Million, Now Locked Down?
  2. Is Japan Headed for Recession, or In Recession?
  3. Do you really believe the US can avoid a recession?

With that, Mr. Bond said: I have to run, but here's another question for you to think about: If not now, when?

On his way out the door I thought I heard him singing Do It To Me One More Time by Captain and Tennille, but it might have been Tonight's the Night.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock