A Producer Price Index Inflation Spike Is On The Way Too
Producer Price Index Month-Over-Month April 2020
- PPI: -1.1%
- 2020 Goods: -2.8%
- Services: -0.4%
- Energy: -17.3%
Producer Price Index Month-Over-Month February 2021
- April 2020 PPI: 0.5%
- April 2020 Goods: 1.4%
- April 2020 Services: 0.1%
- Energy: 6.0%
Q: Why does Energy have such a small impact on the PPI?
A: The following chart explains.
PPI Final Demand Weights
Energy is 15.5% of goods but only 5.0% of the overall PPI.
PPI Year-Over-Year
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Producer Price Index Year-Over-Year April 2020
- PPI: -1.5%
- Goods: -5.2%
- Services: +0.3%
- Energy: -30.7%
Producer Price Index Year-Over-Year February 2021
- PPI: 2.8%
- Goods: 3.4%
- Services: 2.5%
- Energy: 5.5%
What's Going to Happen?
The year-over-year comparisons in March, April, and May are going to show huge percentage year-over-year jumps, especially April and May due to comparisons vs. the initial pandemic numbers in Spring of 2020.
Services will act as a bit of a stabilizer given they constitute 66% of the PPI, but the energy numbers are so huge they will have a very noticeable impact.
Consumer Price Index Discussion
For the impact of Covid on the CPI, please see Inflation is Poised to Soar, 3% by June is "Almost Certain"
Mish