Long Term Chart of Mortgage Rates vs the 10-Year Treasury

Mortgage Rates vs 10-Year Treasury Yield 2004-Present

Change in Mortgage Rates vs Change in 10-Year Treasury Yield

Change in Mortgage Rates vs Change in 10-Year Treasury Yield

Change Since August 6, 2020

  • The 30-year mortgage rate is down 9 basis points
  • The 10-year mortgage rate is down 23 basis points
  • The 10-year US Treasury yield is up 72 basis points


The current divergence is more than a bit unusual.

What's It Mean?

  1. Realistically, mortgage rates ought to be 75 to 100 basis points higher than they are.
  2. The Fed via QE asset purchases is doing a far better job manipulating mortgage yields lower than it has done controlling yields on long-term treasuries.

On February 8, the Fed noted Monetary Policy Will Stay Accommodative For a Very Long Time. I commented "Like Forever".

My question on February 14 still stands: How Long Before the Fed Tries to Manipulate Long-Term Rates Lower?


Competing Mortgage Headlines: Rates Barely Move vs Rates Surge Lower on Powell

Freddie Mac says "mortgage rates barely move" but Mortgage News Daily says "rates surge lower"

US at the Top of the Heap: Global 10-Year Bond Yield Comparison

In a global comparison of 10-year government bonds, three countries have negative-yields and France is on the cusp.

Hello Treasury Bears: 10-Year Bond Yield Approaching Record Low Yield

Treasury yields are down again today, the 6th straight day of strengthening inversions. 30-year to FF inversion on deck.

Mortgage Rates Hit 7-Year High

Bond yields jumped on Friday in response to a strong jobs report. Mortgage rates went along for the ride.

Yield Curve Gets Serious: 10-Year to 7-Year Treasury Spread Collapses to 4 BPs

JP Morgan is following yield spreads on the GBI broad bond index. Things are getting serious says one analyst in a Tweet

Monetary Madness: Inverted Negative Yields in Germany, Negative Rate Mortgages

Monetary madness hit new extremes. Mortgage rates are -0.5% in Denmark. In Germany, a negative-yield curve inverts.

New Record Low Yields on 10- and 30-Year Bonds: Double Cut?

Treasury yields continued a massive plunge today with new record lows. I sense a double rate cut by the Fed on March 18.