A Very Unusual Move in Mortgage Rates vs the 10-Year US Treasury Yield
Long Term Chart of Mortgage Rates vs the 10-Year Treasury
Change in Mortgage Rates vs Change in 10-Year Treasury Yield
Change Since August 6, 2020
- The 30-year mortgage rate is down 9 basis points
- The 10-year mortgage rate is down 23 basis points
- The 10-year US Treasury yield is up 72 basis points
The current divergence is more than a bit unusual.
What's It Mean?
- Realistically, mortgage rates ought to be 75 to 100 basis points higher than they are.
- The Fed via QE asset purchases is doing a far better job manipulating mortgage yields lower than it has done controlling yields on long-term treasuries.
On February 8, the Fed noted Monetary Policy Will Stay Accommodative For a Very Long Time. I commented "Like Forever".
My question on February 14 still stands: How Long Before the Fed Tries to Manipulate Long-Term Rates Lower?