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ADP Estimates a Job Loss of 301,000 in January

ADP is often wildly off the mark but so are Bloomberg consensus estimates. We find out on Friday.
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Graphic courtesy of ADP

Graphic courtesy of ADP

Please consider the ADP® National Employment Report™ for January 2022.

Change in Nonfarm Private Employment

ADP historical calls courtesy of ADP

ADP historical calls courtesy of ADP

The BLS nonfarm employment report generally comes out the first Friday of every month. This month is no exception.

Bloomberg Econoday and most economists predict total nonfarm employment. ADP only reports on private employment. In December there was a loss in government jobs.

Econoday January Predictions

Chart courtesy of Bloomberg Econoday

Chart courtesy of Bloomberg Econoday

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Predictions vs Actual 

  • December ADP Private: 807,000 Actual 211,000
  • December Econoday Total: 400,000 Actual 199,000
  • January ADP Private: -301,000
  • January Econoday Total: 150,000 
  • January Econoday Private: 150,000
  • January Econoday Estimate of January ADP Private Prediction: 225,000

As you can see, there is not much to these predictions other than amusement.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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