ADP Estimates an Increase of 517,000 Jobs. The Bond Market Didn't Budge


ADP forecasts a gain of 512,000 private jobs in Friday's jobs report for March. The bond market didn't budge at all.

Hot and Cold 

ADP forecasts run hot and cold as measured by prediction vs actual results. But this time the ADP forecast and the consensus estimates for the BLS report essentially match. 

The Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate for ADP was 500,000 jobs in a range of 260,000 to 775,000.

The consensus estimate for the BLS jobs report itself is 625,000 in a range of 439,000 to 1,000,000.

Other Predictions

Predicting Predictions

The 500,000 consensus estimate for the forecast nearly matched the 517,000 number ADP did forecast.

Does anyone else find it amusing to be predicting predictions?

Bond Market Reaction

  • 3-Month Bill: Flat
  • 5-Year Note: Flat
  • 10-Year Note: Flat
  • 30-Year Long Bond: Flat

Setting aside philosophical questions regarding predicting predictions, 517,000 would be a very strong report that could easily had an impact on the bond market.

Instead, yields didn't budge. 

Is a strong jobs market already priced into bond?


Comments (6)
No. 1-3

"Does anyone else find it amusing to be predicting predictions?"

What do you call the derivative of a guess? lol

I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of phenomenal months of job creation as people go back to work. Put me down as expecting more upside surprises for while..

I think the reason bonds didn't move instantly is because everybody knows the Fed is committed to ZIRP....but with yields already rising, maybe it was priced in already.


My guess is this is bullish for stocks because the fed continues to accommodate and congress continues to stimulate?


The worse the real economy, the better stocks do?

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