The ADP National Employment Report for May is worth a look, because the numbers are a bit shocking, at least compared to consensus estimates.

Compared to BLS, sometimes ADP is much higher and sometimes much lower. Misses, assuming the BLS is accurate (not necessarily a good assumption), appear to be random.

ADP vs BLS

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ADP and the BLS both heavily revise numbers over time, so the numbers eventually converge.

Trend Change or Outlier?

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Averages

  • The average for the year is 188.
  • The 3-month average is 152.
  • The 2-month average is 149.

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If this is an outlier, then any of the averages are a better indicator than judging from the one-month total.

Consensus Estimates

  • The Econoday consensus estimate for ADP was 175,000 jobs.
  • The Econoday consensus estimate for the BLS is 180,000 jobs.

Jobs vs Employment

Last month, the BLS said Jobs Rose by +263,000 but Employment Declined by 103,000.

In the past year, the difference between jobs and employment is a whopping 1,191,000. That's a discrepancy of 99,250 every month, in favor of jobs.

In that regard, 27,000 no longer seems shocking.

I suspect the BLS and ADP are double-counting part-time jobs. Neither weeds out duplicate social security numbers.

We hear from the BLS on Friday.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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