The ADP National Employment Report for May is worth a look, because the numbers are a bit shocking, at least compared to consensus estimates.

Compared to BLS, sometimes ADP is much higher and sometimes much lower. Misses, assuming the BLS is accurate (not necessarily a good assumption), appear to be random.


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ADP and the BLS both heavily revise numbers over time, so the numbers eventually converge.

Trend Change or Outlier?

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  • The average for the year is 188.
  • The 3-month average is 152.
  • The 2-month average is 149.


If this is an outlier, then any of the averages are a better indicator than judging from the one-month total.

Consensus Estimates

  • The Econoday consensus estimate for ADP was 175,000 jobs.
  • The Econoday consensus estimate for the BLS is 180,000 jobs.

Jobs vs Employment

Last month, the BLS said Jobs Rose by +263,000 but Employment Declined by 103,000.

In the past year, the difference between jobs and employment is a whopping 1,191,000. That's a discrepancy of 99,250 every month, in favor of jobs.

In that regard, 27,000 no longer seems shocking.

I suspect the BLS and ADP are double-counting part-time jobs. Neither weeds out duplicate social security numbers.

We hear from the BLS on Friday.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

December Jobs Up 148K Following ADP 250K "Overheating" Estimate

Yesterday, Mark Zanzi feared the jobs market would overheat. ADP estimated 250,000 jobs in Dec. The BLS reports 148K.

Jobs Report Badly Misses Estimates: 130,000 Jobs with Only 96,000 Private Jobs

The jobs report dramatically missed expectations today, especially with private jobs.

Jobs +103,000, Well Under Lowest Estimate

The BLS reports March jobs as +103,000 with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. Revisions were negative.

Payrolls Exceed Expectations at 250,000 Jobs, Unemployment Rate Steady at 3.7%

The BLS reports jobs expanded by 250,000 vs the Econoday consensus estimate of 190,000 jobs and ADP at 227,000.

November Jobs +228,000: Employment Only +57,000

The number of nonfarm jobs in November increased by 228K. The household survey says employment increased by only 57K.

Wild Miss in Expected Jobs: Economists Blame the Weather

Today’s employment report shows a wild miss in the expected number of jobs. The Econoday consensus estimate was 175,000 and ADP expected 263,000.

Nonfarm Jobs Expand by 164K, Unemployment Rate Remains 3.7%, Revisions Negative

Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 164,000 in June, slightly better than the ADP forecast and the Bloomberg consensus estimate

Jobs: How Good are the Jobs the Economy is Creating?

The Wall Street Journal has an interesting report on the jobs created since the recession.

ADP Forecasts a Big Job Loss in December

ADP is hit or miss on its jobs forecasts but if accurate December will be a bad month.