It’s going to happen much faster than most thought: Coming Soon to a Front Porch Near You: Package Delivery Via Drone.
After lagging behind other countries for years, commercial drones in the U.S. are expected to begin limited package deliveries within months, according to federal regulators and industry officials.
The momentum partly stems from stepped-up White House pressure, prompting closer cooperation between the government and companies such as Amazon.com Inc . seeking authorizations for such fledgling businesses. The upshot, according to these officials, is newfound confidence by both sides that domestic package-delivery services finally appear on the verge of taking off.
At least 10 FAA-approved pilot programs for various drone initiatives—some likely including package delivery—are slated to start by May. Separately, industry and government officials have indicated that Amazon, widely considered one the most aggressive and furthest advanced applicants, is pushing for safety approval of detailed drone designs, as well as precise operating rules.
Amazon officials declined to provide details. But Gur Kimchi, vice president of the company’s package-delivery organization called Prime Air, expressed confidence that necessary approvals would be secured before the end of the year.
Earl Lawrence, who runs the FAA’s drone-integration office, had a similar upbeat message. Airborne deliveries may be “a lot closer than many of the skeptics think,” he told last week’s gathering. Some experimental efforts already are under way and “they’re getting ready for full-blown operations,” he said in an interview. “We’re processing their applications,” and “I would like to move as quickly as I can.”
During last week’s conference, FAA officials urged startups and established industry players alike to submit a variety of proposals, repeatedly using the catchphrase “the FAA is open for business.”
Amazon, for instance, has said its long-term goal is to pick up packages weighing a maximum of 5 pounds from distribution centers and whisk them to customers within a 20-mile radius. Navigating safely over populated areas and landing in pinpoint locations remain two of the most difficult challenges.
Along with General Electric Co., Google and a handful of other aerospace and Silicon Valley companies, Amazon has sketched out principles for a separate, low-altitude traffic-control network intended to be funded and run by a fast-growing industry encompassing more than 10,000 drone-related companies and 70,000 registered commercial aerial vehicles.
Going to Happen
Local regulators will moan about noise, safety, visual pollution near parks, and numerous other things. But it’s going to happen.
“We face tremendous congestion on the roads, but we have virtually unlimited capacity above us,” said Brian Wynne, president of the industry’s largest trade association. “Why wouldn’t we use that?”
Indeed.
Congratulations to Trump for moving ahead with this. Deliveries will be faster and cheaper than before.
Think Pizza!
In July of 2017, Pizza Hut announced plans to hire 3,000 new delivery drivers every month for the rest of the year.
Pizza Delivery Salaries
Image from GlassDoor.
Domino’s Ford Team Up
Also consider Delivery without drivers: Domino’s, Ford team up for test.
Here’s the question: How many pizza delivery guys and gals just lost their jobs?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Sureee misch, go back to toking some green. In 1970 my teacher told me the entire USA would be using the metric system in a few short years, ill, wait.
Those who lose their jobs are coming to your house for dinner. And breakfast.
A drone just crashed into my roof. Who is going to clean up the mess and pay for the damage? Oh, that’s right you don’t have permission to come on my property.
I think this is all pie in the sky dreaming. 😉
The UPS delivery truck delivers roughly 20 packages a day in my neighborhood. Many are too big and/or heavy to be delivered by drone. The economics of drone delivery don’t make sense in my neighborhood since we would need a delivery guy in our neighborhood regardless. Maybe it works better with people who live in isolation.
I think the upshot is the creation of higher paying jobs in the form of actuaries and class action lawsuit lawyers. And Billboard owner and service companies. How long til we see some poor schmuck (hopefully not me), brain damaged, dragged out on tv because a 30 pd drone crashed into his head (failure, drones crashing, pigeons, etc)? I’m not a Luddite. But the proliferation I envision of drones will come with it’s problems. Also not a fan of the driver less car as Mish is but that’s a-whole-nother conversation. Wasn’t sure what the correct grammar was on whole nother. Colloquialism?
“Standards of living rise when there are more goods at cheaper prices.”
Not when people are so devoid of income that they have to borrow money to buy even the cheapest crap.
Consumer goods are fun, drones for business are already real and will be much more so once the “beyond visual line of sight” rules are relaxed. Infrastructure inspection, intrusion detection, and environmental evaluation for permitting are all already good businesses because they keep people out of expensive helicopters.
Delivering a 5 lb pizza by way of a 30lb drone, does seem just a wee bit more rational and efficient, than doing so by way of a 200lb meatsack and a 4000lb hunk of rolling, tariffed, steel……..
Mish, I think you displace blame onto the Fed that rightly belongs to human nature. The tragic fact of the matter is people want inflation at 2%. People want it because they want – indeed they NEED – their wages to rise every year. And they want and need their savings to grow in perpetuum. The Fed exists to give what people want to see: numbers that are constantly going up. Simulated progress to stabilize people’s confidence. The economy can’t work without stable demand.
Maybe if history was different, we might of emerged out of a “deflationary culture” such that people didn’t need to see numbers always rise. To that degree the Fed is a victim of history, charged with keeping an unsustainable system going by any means.
Are we in violent agreement or simply agreement?
We all benefit! Everyone benefits from technology. If you are expecting an argument from me on that score you are mistaken. This is all very price-deflationary. Price-Deflation is good. Standards of living rise when there are more goods at cheaper prices. The problem, once again, is the Fed insists on 2% inflation in a price-deflationary world.
Realist – How many drone creation jobs will be created vs how many Pizza jobs that go away? That said, I agree with the overall tone of your statement! The problem, as I have stated, is Fed insistence on inflation in a deflationary world.
This means the credit bubble will have to expand further. There is no other way this will work….
Pizza just got cheaper – no tipping. Deflation, indeed.