CME Fedwatch shows a 95.8% chance of a quarter-point rate cut on September 8.

Thanks to a trade talk announcement with China, the ADP payroll expectation of 195,000 jobs for Friday's jobs report, some other economic firming, or simply nothing at all, there was a small shift in the odds away from two cuts to no cuts at all.

Yesterday there was a 3.8% chance of two cuts. Today that vanished, replaced by a 4.2% chance of no cut.

Unless the odds shift another 30 percentage points or so, there is little chance the Fed does anything but take out more "insurance".

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The notion of recession "insurance" is silly, but that is the word Fed officials will be yapping about for the next week.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock