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With the elimination of Hancock, Raab is highly likely to find the 33 votes he needs in the next round of eliminations on Tuesday.

The same cannot be said for Javid or Stewart.

The votes for Leadsom and McVey (both strong Brexiteers) eliminated in the first round, will go to Johnson or Raab. There are about 30 votes (20 Hancock and 10 Harper) that will be split between Hunt, Gove, Javid, and Stewart.

Even if there were 40 change votes to be had, an equal split would still eliminate Javid and Stewart.

It's Irrelevant

None of this matters.

Ducks Falling in Line

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Even recent critics of Johnson now back him.

From the Guardian Live Blog: Sugar resigned from the Labour party in May 2015 after an 18-year affiliation, attacking what he called “anti-enterprise concepts” and “a policy shift moving back towards what old Labour stood for”.

Final Four, Then Two - Then Johnson

Johnson, Hunt, Gove, and Raab will likely be the final four. If Raab is eliminated next, he would likely back Johnson or nobody.

It's shaping up as Johnson vs Hunt or Gove.

Johnson will win in a landslide unless he makes some amazing gaffe.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock