The November 2019 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® has some grim statistics.

  1. PMI, new orders, production, and employment down 4th month
  2. Prices and inventories down 6th month
  3. Backlog of orders down 7th month
  4. New export orders contracting

GM Strike Ended

The GM strike ended on October 25. The Econoday consensus expected some improvement. Nope.


Today, in a surprise Tweet, Trump Restores Steel and Aluminum Tariffs for Argentina and Brazil.

This will raise input prices on US manufacturers when prices have fallen for 6 months.

Perhaps Trump still expects a deal with China but China is demanding more than Trump wants to give.

Phone Chips


Also recall Trump banned US companies from buying US-manufactured chips for its phones.

Guess what?

China was once very dependent on US chips for its phones. The Latest Chinese Phones Have No US Parts.

Trump has since rescinded the parts ban, but now it's too late. Trump cut off supplies so China looked elsewhere.

US farmers are still suffering.

Another Recession Warning

Here's yet another recession warning: Freight Volumes Negative YoY for 11th Straight Month.

Trump's trade policies have been an absolute disaster.

No, we are not "winning big" no matter how many times Trump repeats that lie.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

US Manufacturing Recession Begins: ISM Contracts First Time in 3 Years

The manufacturing ISM dipped below the 50 mark signaling contraction. New orders, production, and employment are down.

Manufacturing ISM Worst Since 2009 on Severe Contraction of Export Orders

The Manufacturing ISM is in the second month of contraction and the worst since June of 2009.

ISM and Markit PMI On Verge of Contraction: Expect Contraction Next Month

The closely watched ISM and Markit PMI both hover near 50. That is the dividing line between growth and contraction.

Manufacturing ISM Contracts Third Month, Production Down Sharper

The manufacturing sector entered its third month of contraction with production falling faster.

Recession Warning: Freight Volumes Negative YoY for 11th Straight Month

The Cass Freight Index once again warns again of economic contraction.

ISM Service Index Up, 11 Sectors Expanding, 6 Contracting

The ISM reports the Non-Manufacturing Index rose for the 119th month in December but 6 sectors are contracting.

Non-Manufacturing ISM Cracks Appear: 8 of 18 Industries in Contraction

The non-manufacturing (services) ISM is still growing but prices and new export orders both plunged into contraction. Moreover, 8 out of 18 industries fell into outright contraction.

US, Germany, Japan in Manufacturing Recessions: Full-Blown Recessions Coming Up

The US, Japan, Germany, and the Eurozone manufacturing PMIs are in contraction. Recessions will follow.

Manufacturing ISM Down 5th Month to Lowest Since June 2009

The US manufacturing slump continues unabated. Unlike the dip in 2015, this isn't energy related.