The Arizona Senate race will take a while to settle.

First, it will take a couple of days to hand count close to 600,000 ballots in Arizona. Then we may see recount challenge by the loser.

Please note Hundreds of thousands of ballots still out in tight Arizona Senate race.

  • In Pima County, election officials say nearly 80,000 ballots still need to be counted. Sinema carried a strong lead in Pima County, with 55.2 percent of the vote counted so far, while McSally only received 42.8 percent. County election officials say they won't resume counting those ballots until Thursday.
  • The vast majority of ballots to be counted, however, are in Maricopa County, election officials say. Sinema has a narrow lead there with 49.4 percent of the vote, compared to McSally's 48.6 percent.

Maricopa County Politics

Wikipedia notes "While the city of Phoenix leans towards the Democratic Party, along with some other small areas within the county, the rest of the county tends to vote heavily Republican."​

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If Existing Math Holds

  • Pima 80,000 ballots * 0.552 = 44,160 for Sinema
  • Pima 80,000 ballots * 0.428 = 34,240 for McSally
  • Pinal 40,000 ballots * 0.440 =17,600 for Sinema
  • Pinal 40,000 ballots * 0.560 = 22,400 for McSally
  • Maricopa 500,000 ballots * 0.494 = 247,000 for Sinema
  • Maricopa 500,000 ballots * 0.486 = 243,000 for McSally

Sinema Pickups

  • Pima 9,920
  • Maricopa: 4,000
  • ​Pinal: -4,800
  • Total 9,120
  • Needed: 15,404

The Arizona election may be decided by a handful of votes.

The result will largely depend on whether those Maricopa County votes are from Phoenix or the surrounding areas.

If the above math holds the election will be decided by about 6,000 votes. If so, expect a recount.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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