As Expected, Plan B = Plan A

The Telegraph reports Pound Rallies Against Euro as Prime Minister Unveils Brexit Plan B.

The article did not mention what has changed other than waiving the £65 fee for EU citizens to apply for settled status.

That’s a bullet point, not a plan. She also denied yesterday’s Telegraph story that she considered Changing the Good Friday Agreement on Northern Ireland.

Most likely she did, but Ireland shot the idea down. Alternatively, her staff is floating ideas hoping against hope that something sticks.

Three Changes

The Guardian reports Theresa May Tells MPs She has Identified ‘Three Key Changes’ Needed to Her Brexit Policy.

• First, we will be more flexible, open and inclusive in the future in how we engage parliament in our approach to negotiating our future partnership with the European Union.
• Second, we will embed the strongest possible protections on workers’ rights and the environment.
• And third, we will work to identify how we can ensure that our commitment to no hard border in Northern Ireland and Ireland can be delivered in a way that commands the support of this House, and the European Union.

Other Statements

• She restated her opposition to a second referendum – but also claimed that a majority of MPs were also opposed. – No Change
• She claimed that the EU would not allow article 50 to be extended unless the UK had a plan for approving a deal – meaning the only way to avoid a no-deal Brexit would be to revoke article 50. And that would be unacceptable, because it would cancel Brexit, she said. – No Change

Plan? What Plan?

None of this remotely constitutes a plan other than to rundown the clock and hope something good happens.

Accurate Assessments

May: we have talked to parties and colleagues in a constructive way.
-But delay to #Brexit – No
-Take No-Deal off the table – No
-Second referendum – No. Would damage social cohesion

So that’s it: Plan B is trying to talk people into agreeing with Plan A

— Paul Johnson (@paul__johnson) January 21, 2019

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Last week the mood music out of Brussels was that the Withdrawal Agreement was pretty much set in stone. Don’t hear a change. So don’t understand why Mrs May still thinks she can change the backstop.

— Andrew Neil (@afneil) January 21, 2019

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The disjuncture between what chancellor Hammond and business secretary Clark, in leaked transcript, assured major company chiefs last week about a rapid move to get “no deal” off the table, and what May has told MPs today is complete. May has made them both look fools.

— Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) January 21, 2019

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That last Tweet gets to the heart of the mater.

Heart of the Matter

1. A WTO-Brexit is the default option.
2. A WTO-Brexit wins unless there is agreement on something else.
3. As long as Labour sticks with Norway, May sticks with her plan, the remainers insist on a vote or cancellation, and the hard-Brexit crowd sticks with WTO-Brexit, no group can come close to a majority.

Neither delays nor Parliament amendments change those points. May postponed another vote but MPs may force the deal.

It’s possible, if not likely the MPs rule out a WTO-deal Brexit, but legally such Parliamentary votes have no meaning.

Nothing has changed. May hopes the EU voluntarily puts a timeline on a backstop. The EU is unlikely to do that until the final moment, if then.

But first, May needs to get closer to the finish line. She is light-years away and will remain so until someone abandons their favored plan and supports her.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock