by Mish

The difference between the forecasts is now a whopping 1.6 percentage points.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Latest forecast: 2.8 percent — May 13, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on May 13, up from 2.2 percent on May 10. After this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 3.0 percent to 3.7 percent.”

New York Fed Nowcast

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“The FRBNY Staff Nowcast for GDP growth in 2016:Q2 remains moderate at 1.2%.”

At least one of these is wildly off the mark.

Given the bond market’s reaction to today’s retail sales numbers, I suggest it’s more likely GDPNow missed the mark.

Bond Market Reaction

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Bond yields rallied and gold was flat despite the fact the US dollar index rose 0.63%. Numbers as of 11:30 AM central.

The bond market does not think much of today’s retail sales report, and neither do I.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

GDPNow vs. Nowcast Update

Both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP model forecasts today. There was little change in either.

Fed vs. Fed: New York Fed to Issue Its Own GDP Nowcast; Atlanta Fed Too Pessimistic?

It’s Fed vs. Fed in the Nowcasting business. The New York Fed has decided to issue a FRBNY Nowcast, clearly in competition with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast.

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.

Conversations with New York and Atlanta Fed Senior Economists on Their GDP Models

I had had recent phone and email conversations with senior economists at the New York Fed and Atlanta Fed regarding their GDP forecasts.

GDPNow 2.5%, NY Fed Nowcast 1.7%; Huge Discrepancies: Why?

The New York Fed released its GDP “Nowcast” today. The New York Fed model expects 1.7% seasonally adjusted annualized (SAAR), a jump of 0.5 percentage points from last week.

GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 3.4%, Nowcast 1.9%

The GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast are once again not in the same ballpark.

GDPNow and Nowcast Converging (Opposite Direction Movement on Same Data)

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the New York Fed Nowcast models head towards convergence. This past week the models again moved in opposite directions on the same economic data.

GDPNow, Nowcast Divergence Remains One Percentage Point

In response to poor economic data this week, both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the FRBNY Nowcast Model reduced estimates by about 0.3 percentage points.

GDPNow vs Nowcast: Bit of Convergence but Inventory Problem Looms

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast came out yesterday, the New York Fed Nowcast today.