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The above graph, courtesy of, highlights the difference between government budget forecasts and what really happened.

Australia has not had a surplus since 2007-08 when the Rudd Government spent heavily to insulate the country’s economy against the global financial crisis.

Since then, successive governments have released estimates of when the budget would be returned to surplus but each year this date has been pushed further back.

The 2010-11 budget suggested Australia would be in surplus again in 2012-13 — five years ago.

The Turnbull Government now expects this to happen in 2020-21.

Here's a clue. It won't happen.

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The key to budget forecasts is to not make them but brag about what happens, no matter what happens. Trump provides a perfect role model.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock