The above graph, courtesy of, highlights the difference between government budget forecasts and what really happened.

Australia has not had a surplus since 2007-08 when the Rudd Government spent heavily to insulate the country’s economy against the global financial crisis.

Since then, successive governments have released estimates of when the budget would be returned to surplus but each year this date has been pushed further back.

The 2010-11 budget suggested Australia would be in surplus again in 2012-13 — five years ago.

The Turnbull Government now expects this to happen in 2020-21.

Here's a clue. It won't happen.


The key to budget forecasts is to not make them but brag about what happens, no matter what happens. Trump provides a perfect role model.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Saxo Bank's 10 "Outrageous Predictions" for 2018: Which are Likely?

Every year, Saxo Bank makes 10 outrageous predictions for the new year. The ideas are meant to get people to think.

Major Shocker: Conservatives Win Australia as Labor's Climate Agenda Backfires

Every poll in Australia had the Labor party winning the national election. Instead, the Conservatives won.

So Bloody Predictable: Sydney Ground Zero in Interest-Only Mortgage Implosion

Australia's housing boom is over. A recession is not far away.

Australia's House of Cards is Collapsing: Recession Coming Up

Australia's housing collapse is now in full swing. A recession will follow shortly.

ISM vs Industrial Production: Hype vs Reality

The WSJ says "factory activity heats up". Really?

CPI vs Reality: Medical Care Costs Soar Out of Control

The BLS reports once again that inflation is tame. Reality depends on your needs.

Australia's Housing Bubble Finally Popped?

Australia's mining towns are getting crushed. Not even Sydney is immune.

Projected US Budget Deficit Lie in Four Pictures

Nearly every year, the national debt rises more than the deficit. The picture is guaranteed to get worse.

British Pound Dives as Brexit Reality Sinks In

The pound is the worst-performing major currency in the world since March. Brexit reality is starting to sink in.