by Mish

The Econoday consensus estimate was 14.4 million, seasonally adjusted, annualized, in a range of 17.2 million to 17.8 million. Reported sales total 16.6 million, down 5.7%.

First-quarter GDP will take another hit, this time from March vehicle sales which like February and January proved weak. But the March data is unusually weak, down 5.7 in the month to a 16.6 million annualized rate that is a 2-year low. Sales of North American-made and imports both suffered, at 13.3 and 3.4 million rates, with light trucks and autos both down. Vehicle sales seem to have been pulled forward into December which was an unusually strong month and which helped the fourth quarter at the expense of the first quarter.

Don’t Worry, It’s Just a Plateau!


The amusing comment of the day comes from the Ford Chief Economist, via the Wall Street Journal.

“We think the industry is plateauing at some levels,” Ford Chief Economist Emily Kolinski Morris said. “We’re getting into a more normal phase where (industry sales are) not entirely driven by replacement demand.”

Another Plateau Opinion

I side with Stockman.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Auto Sales Weak Again, Average Loan Hits Record 5.75 Years: Don’t Worry “Plateau Expected”

With about 3/4 of the totals in, vehicle sales in June are running no better than even compared to May’s 16.7 million annualized rate according to Econoday.

Retail Sales Dive (And It’s Not Just Autos)

Retail sales took a 0.3 percent dive in May vs an Econoday expectation of a 0.1 percent rise.

Auto Sales Jump Following Hurricanes

Auto sales are running substantially above estimates according to Econoday.

Auto Sales Puke Again: Year-Over-Year Totals: GM -6%, Ford -7.2%, Toyota -4.4%, Fiat-Chrysler -7.0%

Auto sales are down for the fourth consecutive month. Final numbers are not yet in, but the preliminary year-over-year totals are miserable.

Three Big Red Flags for Auto Sales

In March, auto sales unexpectedly declined 5.7%. Forecasts now suggest April will mark the fourth straight monthly decline in U.S. vehicle sales.

J.D Power and LMC Estimate July Auto Sales Down Five Percent, Time in Inventory Highest Since 2009

July auto sales based on mid-month totals look grim despite record incentives. Industry analysts J.D Power and LMC estimate U.S. July auto sales down 5 percent.

Motor Vehicles Sales Dive in January, Light Trucks Down 7.8%

The BEA released two motor vehicle sales reports today, one for December and one for January. The latter was a bust.

2nd Quarter GDP Final Estimate Tomorrow: Up or Down from Prior?

The BEA’s third (final) estimate of second-quarter GDP is due Thursday. The Econoday consensus is the BEA will up the reading to 3.1% from 3.0%.

GDPNow Real Final Sales Forecast Slips to 0.9%

If you thought today's inventory build numbers would add to GDP estimates, you thought wrong.