Pat Higgins’ Atlanta FedGDPNow model forecast is 5.4 percent with a final update in Wednesday. The Bloomberg Econoday forecast is 4.1 percent.
GDPNow Estimate
The latest GDPNow Forecast is from October 18. A final forecast for the third quarter is on October 25.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.4 percent on October 18, unchanged from October 17 after rounding. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 5.5 percent to 4.8 percent.
Bloomberg Econoday Forecast
The Bloomberg Econoday consensus is 4.1 percent in very wide range of 2.8 percent to 6.0 percent.
Gross Domestic Income (GDI)
I have been watching GDI because it is on a completely different track even though GDP and GDI are two measures of the same thing.
There will not be a GDI release with the first (advance estimate of GDP), but the Philadelphia Fed will update its GDPplus measure on Thursday as well.
GDPPlus had been signaling recession or near-recession although GDP isn’t close.
For discussion, please see GDPplus Big Positive Revisions Decrease Likelihood a Recession Happened
If you believe that Taylor Swift and Beyoncé concert, and the Barbie movie support in the current GDP numbers legitimately, you might be a Keynesian.
So, the average of 5.4 & 4.1 is 4.75. Anything close to this or above is very hot.
And yet, the Fed will sit back and wait for another month’s data, hoping that the UAW strike will lower CPI data. It won’t. Cars will still be sold. Gas will remain high and will go through the roof with just the right push.
They’re doing EVERTTHING they can to keep the economy from tipping into a recession. They’re totally fine with longer for ever so long as it doesn’t induce a recession.
“GDP and GDI are two measures of the same thing”
So two lies that are exactly the same at their core.
Well, said. They removed items that cause inflation and add items that INFLATE GPD/I. Government data is about as valuable as that sheet of toilet paper we all flush daily.
Not lies, statistinks. The same as giving out Nobel prizes for economics increases the resilience of the economy. For the educated, you know.
1) Wolf’s baby is going crazy LOL, LOL, LOL it’s 5%. WTF $34T supported by
Wolf’s babies, approved by a rudderless congress. New Fed raids to fill the tanks.
2) The drunken Dow party :
May 24 low to Oct Fest lows. The medieval head is on Aug 1st.
3) The Dow may step up > Dec 13 high, above a red flatbed cloud, into the cliff,
to close Sept 20/21 gap.
4) 1W : the Dow got support from the cloud. Senko B will stay flat. T&K has flipped.
Slow economic growth continues.
Demand for oil continues to grow as well. Worldwide inventories on land and water continue to drop.
Every day with WTI above $80 is a good day for oil companies. Cash flow is pouring in.
Oil companies are using that cash flow to pay down debt, buy back shares, and increase dividends.
“Wall Street hikes forecasts for anti-obesity drug sales to $100 billion and beyond”
This is the type of stuff that constitutes “GDP” in modern day America. Why eat healthy and exercise when you can pop an obscenely expensive pill and risk acquiring all sorts of unknown health issues from said pills? Because it will increase GDP even further because of the increased medical costs that the side effects will have!
It will lower gdp because people won’t eat as much food, especially junk like Twinkies and chips.
Sham, great name for your ideas. GO OUT and research how many of those Obesity pills are being sold now and then you will be better informed. THERE HAS BEEN NO IMPACT, because it is not even 1% of the population popping those pills that you are using to toss off that extra fat layer packed into your brain.
With the 6% in 2021 and potentially 4% in 2023, Bidenomics could produce the 2 best years of economic growth in the 21st century. Facts. But but but.
Hint: look up “nominal” and “real”
Thanks for the hint, those are real gdp numbers. Lol.
All Government data is PUNKS ON DOPE concocted bullshit, designed to convince apes that all is well when we all see the Headlights of doom NOW.