Check out the Polymarket betting odds on Trump firing the Fed Chair.
Will Trump Try to Fire Powell by August 31?
[Polymarkey says] This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve before his term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or raise rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
New York Times Rumor
I would like to know who that official was. I strongly suspect Housing Director Bill Pulte who has been spreading rumors on Powell all year.
WTF Does This Person Know?
Polymarket Whipsaw
The Polymarket whipsaw is due to these headlines.
New York Times: Trump Has Draft of Letter to Fire Fed Chair. He Asked Republicans if He Should Send It.
President Trump showed off a draft of a letter firing the chair of Federal Reserve, Jerome H. Powell, during a meeting with roughly a dozen House Republicans on Tuesday night, polling them as to whether he should do it and indicating that he likely would, according to two people briefed on the meeting.
Speaking from a separate meeting in the Oval Office on Wednesday, Mr. Trump confirmed that he had queried House lawmakers about whether he should fire Mr. Powell but said he had no imminent plans to do so.
“I talked about the concept of firing him. I said, ‘what do you think?’ Almost everyone of them said I should,” Mr. Trump said, adding “but I’m more conservative.” Mr. Trump, who often reflexively disputes news reports about his actions, said he hadn’t had a letter drafted.
That is edited. I do not have the original post from this morning.
Wall Street Journal: Trump Denies He Is Planning to Attempt to Fire Powell
President Trump denied that he was planning to attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after polling Republican lawmakers during a closed-door meeting about whether he should oust him.
“We’re not planning on doing anything,” Trump told reporters at the White House, adding later, “I don’t rule out anything, but I think it’s highly unlikely. Unless he has to leave for fraud.”
On Tuesday, during a meeting at the White House, Trump asked GOP lawmakers how they felt about firing the Fed chair and several expressed support for attempting to oust him. Trump then suggested he could move to fire him in the near future, according to a senior administration official.
Once again we have the “unnamed senior official”.
We can rule out Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who has openly argued against the idea.
I suspect Bill Pulte for reasons stated.
Should Trump Fire Powell?
Mish: Anyone who answers yes to the question is a fool. I view it as a “stupidity” test.
Low-Grade IQ Test
“I would have never thought I’d see myself defending Powell. That’s how bad this admin is.”
End the Fed
There should not be a Fed.
I would like to see the free market set rates. I guarantee they would not be the 1 percent rate that Trump wants.
The one thing worse than an independent, but biased Fed, setting rates is an economically clueless politician setting rates to achieve his political goals.
Even if you foolishly believe “economically clueless” does not apply to Trump, then think of a context where someone like Kamala Harris is setting rates.
I Officially Announce my Availability to Become the Next Fed Chair
On July 9, I posted I Officially Announce my Availability to Become the Next Fed Chair
Trump considers naming the next Fed Chair early. I have a fifteen-point plan.
I throw my name into the ring.
And I have a plan for what needs to be done. Does anyone else have a plan?
Mish’s 15-Point Fed Plan
- Explain to the nation why we don’t need a Fed and how independent central banks have created boom-bust cycles of increasing amplitude over time. The main corollary is history shows the one thing worse than independent central banks is a central bank run by politicians, frequently ending in hyperinflation.
- Surround myself with qualified insiders who understand the Fed but also believe in the mission to end the Fed.
- Stop paying interest on reserves, phased in over 18 months.
- Wind down the Fed’s balance sheet totally in 2-3 years.
- Require that assets available on demand such as checking and savings accounts are truly available on demand. That means demand deposits are parked in overnight US treasuries. This would be phased in over two years. As a result, we would have genuine safekeeping banks.
That’s the first five. Click on the above link for further discussion.
This drama took place under the Reagan administration. The Reagan bunch thought Volcker was keeping rates to high and tried to get him removed by pressure. It’s amusing to hear Fox News sycophants praise Reagan for ending inflation when that administration hated the Democrat Volcker and his rate policy. Chair Powell is doing fine, given the credit problems in the US, rate increases may be needed to reduce consumer borrowing.
The rest of the world (apart from the USA) has invested about 6 Trillion into US Treasury securities. (Or should I say, it has paid a Tribute of 6 Trillion thrilling dollars to the USA?) Now, this amount is currently about as much as the USA spends in a year, budget-wise. Am I right or am I right?
In normal times, the “rest of the world” refinances this 6 trillion in
3, 6, 12 month intervals, right? That is, the money coming out from matured
Treasury securities is usually right away re-invested in new Treasuries.
Am I right?
I guess the decision to re-invest is based in part on “political” and “economic” considerations.
Political ones are: Can we trust the USA? Can we do business with them, or not? Are they going to do more “Tariff damage” to themselves and others, the way Napoleon did, the way the Smoot-Hawley law did?
Economic ones are: Is this a long term or short term deal? Does the current
T-Bill rate warrant the risk? Will the US go broke because of Republican blocking of reasonableness? Where will the dollar be vs Euro, Brit Pound, Chinese, Japanese, Indian, Saudi currency? Specifically: Will a 1,000 Euro
investment be repaid with a payment worth 800 Euro? Etc.
Those are reasonable concerns today.
Next, we know, that tariffs and the resulting counter or revenge tariffs do indeed reduce all business volume, all trade, all international trade in general. It reduces employment on all sides. It’s not a matter of belief to say this, it’s a matter of a “sinking tide lowers and strands a bunch of ships, everywhere.” The occasional tariff winner does not make up for the majority of tariff losers.
Meanwhile, that Pulte guy of the US Housing etc agency likely holds a bunch
of ‘Pulte Homes stock’, so of course he wants lower mortgage rates. Will that be worth it overall? Real Estate is overvalued in most places, and another
mortgage crisis is possible. Lower prices might work better, but only buyers want that, and not the sellers. Catch that and paint it whatever color you like.
Then, you have the US becoming the only empire that purposely arrests productively working slaves (a.k.a. migrants, immigrants) in their work places to harass and deport them. Not even the Roman Empire was as dumb as that.
I don’t even wanna say who else was that ignorant. A hate & fear ideology
doesn’t work well in the long run. Back in biblical days, the Egyptian king managed to treat his slaves so badly, that they scared him with snakes, pandemics and locusts, and then they bravely ran away, getting lost in the desert for 40 years. Later they started their own country, and that’s were they
are now, fighting with other slave masters. If I were me, I’d give the whole darn desert back to the Brits, and ask for an even exchange, like an equal amount of land in Canada. What with all forests in Canada burning down and a bit of extra climate change, the place will become a new desert in no time, and they’ll feel right at home. Then they can fight with the Canadian Indians and Inuit, etc. Ok, now, the last thing I said was bad and uncalled for.
Notice please, I said ‘If I were me’ , but I haven’t felt like myself lately, so the whole thought might just be a fever dream, and not like an everyday reasonable prophecy from the White House Faith Office. .
On the other hand, if a guy like Jamie Dimon tells Trump to be careful, then that will make him mad and do the opposite, because nobody can tell him anything.
We can learn that from an old-fashioned documentary about US History, which was called ‘Blazing Saddles’. That’s were the very very strong Mongo was terrorizing the town of Rock Ridge, and the guy playing the town drunk warned the sheriff: “Don’t shoot him, ya just gonna make him mad!” Over the top goofy movies are not the worst place to learn history. Two angels named Mark Twain & H L Mencken will stand behind me on that in court, if there is a court. I don’t even want to go to court, because I am scared of kangaroos. They punch and kick, and don’t play nice with others.
No wonder the odds about Jerry Powell are all over the place.
powell looks like he got his gatorade mixed up with cat piss.
The Godfather Presidency: How Donald Trump’s Governing Style Mimics the Mob
https://archive.ph/CrJQ7#selection-525.0-525.75
Confused Trump Forgets He Appointed Jerome Powell As Fed Chair
I lost track of the number of Trump appointed people who were also fired by him.
donald doesn’t lie. all morons and retards and mongoloids know this.
Weird how this bet is framed: resolves to “… ‘Yes’ if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve before his term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request …”
Why weird? Because the legality of that is so questionable, so unresolved, indeed quite doubtful. It is not a replacement of Powell, but a shot across the bow that would start a legal dispute. As with derivatives (thinking of other “event contracts”), what event is a “default”? The definition matters, and this one seems fuzzy to me. But a bet is a bet.
This is of particular focus to me, because Trump is so prone to casually or impulsively do things, including making all sorts of statements and executive orders, many legally quite speculative.
TRUMP IS DONE. JD vance will need to take over. like Nixon but 100x worse.
SF GATE NAILS IT. “So why aren’t Democrats hammering Trump over this?
You’ve met Democrats, yeah? You also saw Bill Clinton’s name on those flight logs, too. Also, in a long-gestating bit of irony, it’s likely that Democratic leaders are frightened that bringing up the Epstein files over and over again will make them look like kooks.
Would it?
What does it matter? You know how Trump rose to power? BY BEING A F—KING KOOK. All day, every day. Being relentlessly crazy is how you win now. Democrats won’t do it. And from what I’ve seen so far, the mainstream media won’t, either. Much of Epstein files coverage I’ve seen from the New York Times and Washington Post has been below the fold and about how the files have created a rift between Trump and the MAGA movement. That’s an awfully roundabout way of covering what really could be, at long last, the scandal of the century. A scandal that really does bring down everyone involved in it.”
I thought everyone knew all that and still voted for him
El Trumpedo – Know off this rape stuff
Demand that Bibi release the videos! Got popcorn?!!! (Like the guy in the theater in Diner)
PRESIDENT PEDERAST is a schizo like sybil.
In Other News
“Israel is committed to preventing harm to the Druze in Syria due to the deep fraternal alliance with our Druze citizens in Israel, as well as their familial and historical ties to the Druze in Syria,” Netanyahu’s office added in a statement.
Interesting. So Israel is protecting the Syrian Druze who have close ties to the 150K Druze with Israeli citizenship.
If somehow the people of Gaza could liberate themselves from Hamas, I could see Israel doing the same sort of thing down the road.
That would put an end to all this genocide talk, right?
Where’s Sentient???
I’m right here. Israel wants that Gaza oceanfront real estate. They won’t let Gaza have an airport or a seaport. They want to ethnically cleanse Gaza and the West Bank. There aren’t enough Druze to matter to Israel’s plan for Greater Israel.
Hunter please come back. The witch hunt is against JP and the Fed. Hunter, U and your family gang got millions from Ukraine and Xi. That’s a pocket money for the Fed.
Raiding other people bank accounts isn’t illegal. Getting a cut on renovations, if convicted in a trial, can send JP and a few Fed banker to jail. If we enter recession boomers and gen X will blame the idiotic Fed for losing their houses and savings. Trump is setting up JP. Only stupid people cannot get it.
Trump acts like he’s a master of the universe, dabbling in everything. But as they say, a jack of all trades is a master of none—and in his case, even that might be generous. He thinks he’s got the Midas touch, but everything he grabs turns to garbage
Trashy, useless scion of a trashy, useless family. What’s next? President Kardashian?
Ah yes, good old Bloomberg; “Markets Rattled by ‘Credible Threat’ of Trump Trying to Fire Powell”
Dow up 0.43%, S&P up 0.27%.
Terrifying, simply terrifying. 🙄
good for trading
TACO is a prime example of a narcissist as he believes he is a god or king. He craves attention on a daily basis with his shenanagins and worthless threats. No doubt, those close to him are making a bundle in the market by trading ahead of his capitulations. Not sure, the US has had a president with a worse demeanor or character.
Opinions are meaningless
Don’t you just know that Jeffrey Epstein’s former next-door neighbor, Howard Lutnick, is making a fortune on these TACO trades.
NO MORE BAILOUTS.
post is fire well done
Pulte would definitely benefit low interest rates…….
correct
but the regional banks will not.
Nope , if Powell reduces short term rates the 10 year and 30 go up
Or maybe 10 yr 30 yr will go down, because more demand. It’s an auction market, after all
gold would rise much faster than home builders…………
The US is a pretty funny joke these days. One day we will take our nation and its foundational documents seriously again
nope. this empire is crumbling and won’t recover. 50 state solution coming fast. like the previous evil empires that crumbled before us.
That’s gonna be pretty hard on the red states. No more handouts from the blue states.
If it’s still here.