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Between 8 and 14 Million People Face Eviction Following Supreme Court Ruling

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Rent Payment Status 2021-08-27

Confidence in Ability to Pay

Confidence in Ability to Pay Rent 2021-88-27

I produced the above charts with data from Week 35 (biweekly actually) of the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey

In both charts "Total Renters" really means total number of responders who answered enough questions for the bureau to make a determination.

"Did Not Respond to Tenure" means the respondents did not answer enough questions for the bureau to know if they were renters or owned a house and/or what their payment status really is.

Given that unknowns exceed knowns, the above counts are highly likely to be understated, assuming accurate answers on what the respondents did answer. A census department person that I spoke with agreed with that assessment.

Estimates Vary

  • The Philadelphia Federal Reserve estimated that some two million renter households nationwide were behind on payments for reasons related to income loss during the pandemic
  • The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a progressive think tank, has used Census surveys to estimate that the number of adults living in households behind on rent, for any reason, could exceed 11 million.

That seems like an enormous discrepancy but the first bullet point regards households with an additional pandemic requirement and the second pertains to individuals. 

Both are well below my calculations of the Census Dept data.

Households Not Current in Rent by Household Size 2021-08-27

No or Slight Confidence to Pay by Household Size

No or Slight Confidence to Pay by Household Size 2021-08-27

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There are over 8 million renters not current in rent. On a household basis over 3 million households are late.

The total of those with no or slight confidence to pay their rent is over 14 million individuals in over 5 million households.

California , New Jersey, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Illinois still have eviction bans but a huge wave evictions is now on deck.

Pelosi Blames the Supreme Court

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi blasted the Supreme Court calling its decision to end eviction bans "Arbitrary and Cruel"

“The Court’s decision to block the new CDC eviction moratorium is immoral, putting families at risk of being put on the streets, and it is a serious public health threat, as the delta variant continues,” she said.

Several progressive Democrats — Reps. Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, Cori Bush of Missouri, Jimmy Gomez of California and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York — along with over 60 other House colleagues wrote a letter to Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., urging them to pass legislation to extend the federal eviction moratorium for the duration of the pandemic.

Of course, Pelosi forgot to look in the mirror to see who's mostly to blame. 

If Democrats did not waste months drumming up support for their 3.5 trillion Sink America Plan, they could have done something sensible like guarantee landlords they would be paid. 

I will have a far more detailed proposal shortly, admittedly late, but there is no way Pelosi would have acted on my plan anyway.

For discussion of the correct Supreme Court ruling ending Federal level bans, please see Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Landlords, Wave of Evictions Coming Up

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