According to Worldometers there are 11,298 coronavirus cases in serious or critical condition. There are 57,736 total cases. Those in serious or critical condition constitute 20% of cases.

Most of the deaths yet to come will start in the pool of serious or critical patients.

Logarithmic Charts

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Worldometers provides an excellent set of linear and logarithmic charts but the latter is a much better way of visualizing slowdowns or accelerations.

The rates are decelerating but have not yet turned down.

Coronavirus Cases by Country

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I added the color highlights in the last column.

2020-02-16 Updates

  1. 1 new case in the United Arab Emirates.
  2. 3 new cases in Singapore: a family member of a previously confirmed case and 2 persons linked to the Grace Assembly of God church, including a Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) serviceman.
  3. 1 new death in Taiwan: a 61-year-old man with no travel history abroad but - as a taxi driver - serving clients from Hong Kong, Macau and mainland China, who had underlying conditions (diabetes and hepatitis B).
  4. 2 new cases in Taiwan.
  5. 6 new cases in Japan.
  6. 1 new case in Hong Kong: 54-year-old man with no travel history and no known contacts with confirmed cases.
  7. 70 new cases onboard the cruise ship in Japan. Nearly 1 out of 10 passengers and crew (9.6%) have tested positive to the virus so far (355 cases out of 3,711 passengers and crew).
  8. 1 new case in South Korea: a 82-year-old South Korean man in Seoul, with no travel history to China.
  9. 166 new cases and 3 new deaths occurred outside of Hubei province in China on February 15, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China.

Casual Transmission

Points 2, 3, 6, and 8 involve casual (no travel or family member) transmission.

Point 7 show how easily the virus spreads on a cruise ship.

Mortality Rates

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients."

In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.

The correct formula, therefore, would appear to be CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T} (where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths belonging to the same group of patients.

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One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate T with any precision, but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR during an ongoing outbreak).

See Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate for more discussion.

Death Rate Comparison

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Serious and Critical vs Deaths Over Time

I asked Worldometers for charts of serious and critical cases vs deaths over time.

I will post a chart if they answer.

Daily Death Growth Factor

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Growth factor is the factor by which a quantity multiplies itself over time. The formula used is every day's deaths / deaths on the previous day. For example, a quantity growing by 7% every period (in this case daily) has a growth factor of 1.07.

A growth factor above 1 indicates an increase, whereas one between 0 and 1 it is a sign of decline, with the quantity eventually becoming zero.

A growth factor below 1 (or above 1 but trending downward) is a positive sign, whereas a growth factor constantly above 1 is the sign of exponential growth.

The death rate dipped below 1.00 on February 1 (0.98), February 11 (0.90), and February 13 (0.84).

On the 14th the rate jumped backed up to 1.17.

Virus Probably With Us Beyond 2020

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The above from Coronavirus Expert Opinions.

CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield says "I think this virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we'll get community based transmission and you can start to think about it like seasonal flu. The only difference is we don't understand this virus."

Also note Harvard Professor Says Global Coronavirus Pandemic is Likely

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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