Huge Bet Against Tesla
CNBC Comments Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530 million bet against Tesla
Burry does have a huge bet against Tesla, but the article itself is terribly inaccurate.
Famed investor Michael Burry on Monday revealed a short position against Tesla worth more than half a billion, in a regulatory filing.
Burry, one of the first investors to call and profit from the subprime mortgage crisis, is long puts against 800,100 shares of Tesla or $534 million by the end of the first quarter, according to the filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Valuation Fact Check: False
Valuation Statement: “Short position against Tesla worth more than half a billion“
Burry owns 8,001 put contracts strike price, or expiry, according to the filing. What price Burry paid is unknown. The target PUT price is also unknown. The current value of the PUTs is unknown.
Buying 1 PUT represents the right (but not the obligation) to sell shares at the specified price.
8,001 PUTs would give Burry the right to sell 800,100 shares of Tesla at an unknown price.
Assuming TESLA went to zero (it won’t), and assuming the PUT strike price on all the PUTs was $700 (again false), one can calculate $700 * 800,100 = $560,070,000.
But that calculation (over half a billion) is total nonsense.
Sloppy Writing
The article noted Burry was “long puts against 800,100 shares of Tesla.”
When a friend emailed that statement, it read like a hedge.
Long PUTs “against” shares could be interpreted as a hedge (i.e. long stock and long PUTs).
“Long PUTs “on” 800,100 shares of TSLA” accurately describes the bet.
Value at Risk
We do not know what the strike price, nor the price paid, nor the strike dates.
Because of the lack of details, we do not know for sure if Burry is even ahead in the trade despite the decline.
I suspect he is well ahead, but that is an unknown given time decay on options.
A Word About Timing
Inaccuracies aside, Burry did make a big bet against Tesla and I agree with his reasoning regarding tax credits, profitability, valuation, etc.
However, one could have provided the same reasoning a year ago, been correct on rationale, and lost the entire bet.
So far, it appears Burry has excellent timing.
Mish
