Bigger is Better: Trump Says a "Small Cut" Won't Do

Trump is openly campaigning for more than a quarter-point cut but the market has discarded that outcome.

Trump is openly campaigning for more than a quarter-point cut but the market has discarded that outcome.

Trump's views are widely understood, but he is on the campaign trail anyway: Trump Says He Wants More Than ‘Small’ Fed Rate Cut.

Single Cut Odds

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The market thinks there is only a 27.1% chance of a 50 basis point cut.

That is up from 18.8% yesterday so it's likely Trump shifted the odds, but not enough.

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Small businesses, unable to make operational changes, are "at the Limit" of what they can take from Trump's tariffs.

Fed fund futures show a hike in March is more likely than a cut. In December, the opposite is true.