….countries that know how to play the game against the U.S. That’s actually why the E.U. was formed….and for China, until now, the U.S. has been “easy pickens.” The Fed has made all of the wrong moves. A small rate cut is not enough, but we will win anyway!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 29, 2019
Trump’s views are widely understood, but he is on the campaign trail anyway: Trump Says He Wants More Than ‘Small’ Fed Rate Cut.
Single Cut Odds
The market thinks there is only a 27.1% chance of a 50 basis point cut.
That is up from 18.8% yesterday so it’s likely Trump shifted the odds, but not enough.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Bigger is Better: Trump Says a “Small Cut” Won’t Do
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Mish
Every national politician has two options when it comes to economic policy: Educate the electorate on the dangers of government prolificacy and the need for sound fiscal policy OR badger the Central Bank for lower interest rates and a resulting weaker currency.
Fed Chairman Powell is on record as opposing QE3 under Bernanke, “It’ll never be enough for Wall Street; even $4.3 trillion won’t be enough…” but he can’t stand alone against a currency race to the bottom, which is what’s underway.
I believe the root cause of Europe’s economic malaise lies in ECB efforts aimed at protecting the German export engine via low interest rates and a weaker Euro.
13 Trillion dollars of societal capital parked idle in sovereign junk is a damning indictment of every Central Banker and national politician on the planet.
But when creditors dug into Trump Organization, they realized the bankruptcy was caused by a helicopter crash that killed several senior executives who ran day to day operations while Trump “made deals”. Art of the Deal and all that. Trump tweets and draws the crowds, he knows how to deal with crooked city officials who demand bribes and union bosses who demand kickbacks when building supplies are brought to a job site.
Trump relied (and probably still relies) on a group of trusted advisors to handle lots of the details, to actually execute Trump Organization strategy.
Plenty of corporations and armies have been stymied because the leader had vision but didn’t have lieutenants who could execute.
President Trump (as opposed to CEO Trump) has had a lot of trouble finding lieutenants who can execute his ideas, people who can get things done. There has been a LOT of personnel turnover.
Obama had the same problem. Bush II had Colin Powell and Condolesa Rice and Rumsfeld to execute, but Bush II had no vision. Bill Clinton mostly had vision for coed interns, but he also lacked lieutenants who could get things done.
Presidents and CEOs need solid people who can execute the leader’s vision. HR departments spend a lot of time making sure they can attract good employees; companies that don’t have trouble.
Washington DC has so much corruption, and confirmation hearings are such partisan witch hunts, that Presidents of both parties are unable to get good lieutenants to get things done
you just drew a clear picture of the global corrupt, criminal, political, corporate environment in general…..
As we have come to know more about President Trump it is clear he is very comfortable with economic manipulation. This is not written as an attack on Trump but to point out the President has a distinct view of the world which spills into the financial system. Trump appears to embrace MMT and often seems more worried about today than the future. His “damn tomorrow” attitude is reflected in deficit spending and calling for lower interest rates.
Trump’s delusion that his stock market can go straight up forever is not based on years of stock trading but rather his years in real estate where inflation treated him well as prices rose ever higher. The article below argues this has skewed his views on the economy in ways that might damage us in the future.
Now that we are back to 2% GDP he knows he needs lower rates. But his fate will depend on the economy come 2020. Bankruptcy is no issue.
I wish Trump and the cabal of criminals in Washington (Congress, lobbyists, and the academics in the Eccles building) would factor in the loss of interest income people get hit for while we subsidize a city full of parasites (DC) and their bank CEO friends.
A rate cut (if it happens) will hurt people who need interest income. It will not fix the economy anymore than it fixed Japan.
A rate cut is a lot of loss, with absolutely no gain.
More winning. Proving lobbying Trump doesnt matter when it comes to Qatar, Dubai or UAE – all who have Kushner in their back pocket .
For an allegedly casual observer, you have a raging case of Trump derangement syndrome.
Trump has you worked into a total frenzy
I voted for him. Thus what you purport is impossible.
It seems like you are in a frenzy here since you opened your account today. I’ve been here for over a decade on this blog and going back to before 2004 on the old blog. Trump was a good idea in theory. In practice it has been a disaster. I guess its impossible for you to think there is truth on all sides. That requires thinking.
I got here first… Mommy! Tell Tater-Man to stop making me cry
Trump got into your head, you are completely obsessed by everything he does
We are in a crazy world. When the Greek 10 year is under 2%, maybe the US rates are too high. US rates look high in relation to other countries.
Most of EU has negative rates. I would have said this was impossible and will lead to disaster. I would guess everyone here thought that
QE would create inflation, gold would sky rocket and we would enter a depression. It hasn’t – so far. Now I believe we are headed to MMT either with Trump or with any of the Democrats.
Yep. Ray Dalio states this openly as is preparing for it. He has even convinced nonbelievers in the financial world that MMT 2.0 is coming.
Moar cowbell!
Agree, it was great on SNL!
I got a debt fever! And the only prescription is lower rates!
CONfidence in the government, Fed and other equally corrupt institutions is steadily evaporating. Eventually, this will lead to loss of $USD reserve currency status and a shocking decline in US living standards. For now, the $USD remains the “purest gal in the whorehouse”, but for how much longer – it’s anyone’s guess.
He wants the Fed to go all the way to “Minus 11”.
Trump getting elected is a symptom of the underlying disease that is effecting the all G7 countries. Its why we are seeing similar persons winning elections all over the G7.
If you want to get rid of Trump, you have to fix the underlying problem: Washington DC is corrupt to its very core. Hilary is corrupt to her very core. That’s why DC loved her and the rest of the country did not.
I don’t want to “get rid of Trump”, I want the Fed to stop blowing this bubble so we can have the big reset we desperately need. It will be very painful but also inevitable and absolutely necessary.
When Trump makes statements like this, he proves he’s part of the swamp like nearly every other politician.
Gee I seem to remember him saying something about draining the swamp. Give me a break now you want to have it both ways with your hero. Honestly, the derange Orange guy kind of insinuated that he could use nukes to end the war in Afghanistan. The he wonders why other countries want their own nukes. The guy is a bully and everyone knows it by now
Clearly you are a faux news watcher and repeater. Literally every post is about Comey and Brennan. At some point tan-man has a problem. Tsunami of problems coming for him.
For an allegedly casual observer, you have a raging case of Trump derangement syndrome.
You and Rachel Maddow have been predicting “this is the week Trump gets caught” for two years.
Lol. I voted for him so what you purport is impossible.
Please disclaimer your messages with the statement “This message was approved by the Russian IRA”. Thanks.
Please disclaimer your poor writing skills.
Not sure if you meant to poke fun at Obama telling Medelev, when he [Obama] thought the mics were off, to tell Putin that he [Obama] would have more flexibility after the election (which is a clear and blatant act of collusion between Obama and the Russian government.
Or perhaps you are referring to the Clinton Foundation receiving a $140 million bribe from Russatom? That’s either a blatant act of collusion or else its Hilary accepting bribes.
Or maybe you are talking about Bill Clinton getting $500K for a 45 minute speech in Russia?
Because Comey and Brennan (and later “Mueller”, aka Hilary’s campaign lawyers) chose to overlook all those cases and evidence.
People who are tasked with gathering evidence would have investigated those acts and included them in any professionally written report about Russian election interference.
Some of us still remember the “big fat, ugly bubble” that a certain candidate talked about last election. My, how times changed after 2016.
Fortunately he did manage to lock her up, end the wars, build the wall, and drain the swamp, so at least he’s not a total blowhard.
Oh the irony of being the incumbent vs the insurgent. This is going to be hilarious and end badly.
30 years of central bank planning in Japan accomplished absolutely nothing — except for a lot of debt.
The Fed is doing the same thing, and will get the same results.
Period. Amen. No buts. Same input, same output.
Clamoring for growth at any cost only gets more debt.
The US will be lucky to get the same results as Japan. I suspect they’ll get a whole lot more.