Spectacular Failures
Theresa May never really wanted to leave the EU. And her despised customs union deal was not really leaving. Rather, it was a permanent trap.
No one took May seriously. The EU played her for the fool she was. And the UK MPs never seriously believed no deal was ever an option.
Remainers voted against her deal expecting to stop Brexit completely. They too failed spectacularly.
No Way to Stop Brexit
MPs have no realistic way of stopping Brexit. The EU can penalize the UK but in the process hurt itself even more.
That is the only choice on the table.
Latest Polls Good for Johnson
In the three most recent polls, the Tories topped Labour. The latest poll has the Tories in a 6 point lead. In the two most recent polls, Labour is in 4th place.
The Ipos MORI poll has the Brexit Party at 12%. That is woefully misleading as explained below.
Johnson’s Best Bet
Please consider a Post-Brexit Election is Looking Like Boris Johnson’s Best Bet.
While YouGov has the Tories and the Brexit party neck and neck, on 24% and 23% respectively, Ipsos Mori shows Tory supporters outnumbering Nigel Farage’s party by more than two to one (26% to 12%).
Which is right? There is no simple answer. The big difference between the two companies is that Ipsos-Mori conducted its survey by phone, and asked respondents how they would vote, without including the Brexit party in the initial list they gave respondents. YouGov conducted its survey online and presented respondents with a list of parties including the Brexit party. By reminding people about Nigel Farage’s party in the main voting question, YouGov seems to have doubled its support.
What If Brexit Delivered?
A second You-Gov poll addresses the critical question: How would you vote if Brexit was delivered. That’s the lead chart.
“Fighting an election once Brexit has happened would offer a huge advantage for Johnson: Farage’s fox would have been shot. Of the 5 million Tories that YouGov reckons have defected to the Brexit party since 2010, getting on for 4 million would return home.”
Eurointelligence
The big problem in interpreting UK polls is that the current four-way split reflects uncertainty about the positions of both the Tories and Labour on Brexit. Once positions crystallize during an election campaign, the numbers could change significantly. And, in a first-past-the-pole electoral system, even a small change in the parties’ vote shares could have a dramatic effect on seat allocation.
A Times/YouGov poll out yesterday put Labour at 18% behind the Tories, the Brexit Party and the LibDems – in that order. The Tories are recovering their position as Boris Johnson is on course to become the party’s next leader. We think it is possible that he might call immediate elections. This would give him a chance to campaign on Brexit delivery by October – deal or no deal.
The reason we think early elections are possible is that the alternative options might prove to be even more risky. But clearly, Johnson will only call elections if he believes he can win an outright majority. For the moment, the polls still say this is not going to happen. Getting a firm pro-Brexit majority would probably require some accommodation with the Brexit Party – difficult for both sides.
Newsnight reports that Remainers are plotting legislation in September to rule out no deal. This sounds like a half-baked initiative. What the report made very apparent is that the pro-Remain Tories are pulling back from the threat to support an outright no-confidence motion in the parliament. There was talk about a conditional no-confidence vote – which has no legal meaning.
We do not doubt that a majority in the UK parliament is opposed to a no-deal Brexit. But we are not sure that this majority can assert itself in an effective way because of asymmetric political effects. Many people would end their political careers if they went ahead with this. And Jeremy Corbyn would then most likely become prime minister.
I think Eurointelligence has two points wrong.
- Johnson’s best strategy is to ensure Brexit, then welcome back Brexit Party members as opposed to calling elections before October 31.
- If by some miracle MPs hold a successful motion of no confidence before Brexit can be delivered (mathematically it seems remote if not impossible due to calendar day scheduling), then the winner could easily be Farage, not Corbyn.
New Binary Choice
- Leave with a good deal.
- Leave with no deal.
Johnson will not seek a delay. Nor will he present Theresa May’s pathetic deal. There will not be Brexit revocation.
The new binary choice is not even a decision for UK MPs. The new binary choice is between Johnson and the EU.
If after Johnson delivers Brexit, Corbyn calls for another referendum, then Corbyn would be replaced as party leader or Labour would get destroyed in the next election.
The key to understanding what’s going to happen is in the polls. A lot can happen in the next month, but the MPs are essentially out of the process unless they hold a motion of no confidence that succeeds the first day parliament is in session, and even then, the required number of days may be short.
MPs cannot stop a determined PM from delivering Brexit. It’s too late.
Good Deal Odds Rising
The Odds of a “Good Deal” are High and Rising.
But if the EU wants to cut off its nose to spite its face, there’s nothing Johnson can do but walk away.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
But if the EU wants to cut off its nose to spite its face, there’s nothing Johnson can do but walk away.
The EU MIGHT be wiling to change a comma or a semi-colon but Little England simply isn’ tworth creating a precedence for other cry-babies to use to get out of the EU. Ask the Swiss about where the EU stands on major policies.
Why don t you tell us where the worthless circus stands on major policies ? The EU is functioning better than Switzerland, innit ? LOL!
The EU will refuse to do a new deal out self-preservation, Britain will exit with no deal, and if the fallout is as bad as everyone says it is Scotland and possibly Ireland will break from the UK. Well done.
The EU will self destruct before the spineless politicians in London figure out what to do about Brexit. Dithering is what London does. Splitting up (with occasional wars) is what the continent does. This isn’t even the first time Europe has forced a common currency on its citizens, and not the first time said currency collapsed.
History repeats again and again, and no one seems to learn from it
Speaking of history repeating itself,the IMF Vassalage team is standing by. And with Little England’s economy collapsing, their suites in London will be cheap.
Perhaps you think England will go bankrupt before the EU does, and maybe it does go first. Perhaps the EU will collapse once Deutche bank loses the ability to prop up all the EU’s bad debts. Perhaps Italy will default (formally or informally) first. Perhaps Macron’s violence against his own citizens (yellow vests) will undermine his authority before Merkel gets the boot. Despite Draghi promising to do whatever it takes, he solved nothing. Lagarde has no new ideas to keep the EU alive.
Brexit doesn’t matter, because soon there won’t be an EU to argue about either way.
It seemed to me that RonW wrote without anger and perfectly coherently. As to the people on this site who regularly claim that the EU is on its last legs, they sound like a cracked record. They have been saying the same thing for donkeys years. Be careful what you wish for.
I think your ID says a lot about your objectivity in this matter
I don’t live in the UK, and don’t care if they remain or not. I stated that RonW might be correct, that England might get toe tags before (or after) the EU. Neither one is solvent.
When the German people find out the cost of propping up the EU included the end of Deutche Bank (on top of the immigration mess), we will see if they don’t side with French yellow vests. Italy already elected anti-EU leadership, and they are already laying the groundwork for a new Italian currency.
As for RonW’s anger management problems, he resorted to name calling — “Little Englanders” and such. Not the rants of a rational debate.
But Little Englanders will still get to keep their unicorns!
Italy is openly defying Brussels. The yellow vests are openly defying both Brussels and Macron. Germans have told Merkel this is her last dance. Eastern Europe is openly defying Brussels. Draghi did “whatever it takes” and it wasn’t anywhere near enough. And now Eurpope’s paymaster (Deutche Bank) seems a bit wobbly.
Won’t it be funny if the politicians in London defies the Brexit vote, only to learn the rest of Europe already neutered Brussels? HA HA HA HA HA
You’ve been sniffing your BREXIT unicorn’s poop again. On November 1, the real business of the 27 remaining EU nations will begin-silencing internal whingers with jobs pillaged, err,imported from that third country, Little England. French upset? have a nice AIRBUS factory. Italians cranky? Have a BMW Mini plant. All courtesy delusional Brexiteers. Enjoying eating your cake and those 40 even better FTA yet?
You need to take several deep breaths and calm down.
I wasn’t advocating brexit or not. I was saying the EU is collapsing before our eyes (in all three “anchor” countries). By the time London figures out what to do about brexit, it won’t matter because the EU will be a paper tiger.
Italy already told the EU to pound sand. Merkel is on her way out. And Macron can’t even lead French yellow vests, never mind all the other Europeans who didn’t elect him. EU is zero for three on anchor countries.
Remaining in a defunct club is pointless.
Mish, who will Johnson or the drip negotiate with?
There was never any deal that Parliament and the EU-27 would agree on – there are too many divergent interests on the EU side, and for a deal, there has to be a unanimous YES from the EU. That will not happen. Stay in or get out, but quit pretending there’s a potential good deal.
It amazes me the new binary choice wasn’t always the only binary choice. It’s the only leverage the UK has.
Little England NEVER had any leverage. It’s basically a branch plant economy for the rest of the industrialized nations. And after it crashes out of the EU, the remaining members will delight in propping up their economies by picking Little England clean. They’ll have to hurry before tRumpland gets its claws on Little England, though, because his team is expert at raping, looting and pillaging regulations and standards. Nothing shuts up a whinging populist group like a nice Peugot, Airbus or BMW Mini plant. Delivered with pleasure by BREXITEERs.
LOL, the EU is even moribund while riding high on the waves of a cheap debt driven economy, just imagine what a minor economic downturn will do with the clueless superfluous megalomaniac circus full of worthless, outrageously overpaid corrupt freeloading clowns ! Unless of course you think the secretive, above the law counterfeiting ECB bunch will save our asses into eternity…