My favorite of the bunch involves the Companies That Jumped on the Bitcoin Train Right Before it Derailed.
Long Blockchain may epitomize this craze, as this time last year it traded as Long Island Iced Tea Corp., a microcap beverage company. In late December, just days after what would prove to be bitcoin’s recent peak, it abruptly announced a change in both name and focus, turning instead to ”the exploration of and investment in opportunities that leverage the benefits of blockchain technology.”
Long Island Iced Tea - Now, Long Blockchain
What a Riot
Riot, another new entrant in the sector—it was previously BiOptix Inc., a biotechnology company—saw similar price action. It rallied after announcing its move into the blockchain arena, but the stock saw a peak that coincided nearly perfectly with bitcoin’s, as seen in the following chart.
BiOptix Inc., now Riot
Hive shows the benefit to getting into crazes well before they peak. It's down 64% in 2018 but it's up 753% from a kear ago.
In January, after the bitcoin record, it announced a “major blockchain initiative” designed to help photographers license their work and get paid for usage.
Kodak, Still Kodak (KODK)
I wrote about the absurdities of Kodak in Peeking Inside an Actual Bitcoin Mine: Care to Buy a Mining Operation?
Kodak is branding a $3,400 bitcoin-mining machine that you would have to be ape-shit nuts to buy.
- The Kodak-branded mining rig called the KashMiner, which was showcased at this year's CES. It's created and run by a company called Spotlite, and has licensed the Kodak name.
- Users pay $3,400 to rent the mining machine for two years and give Kodak half of any bitcoins mined.
- Kodak claims the KashMiner will produce about $375 worth of new bitcoins every month, which would lead to estimated revenues roughly $9,000 over those two years.
If these devices actually were profitable to anyone but Kodak, the company would start its own mine rather than selling them.
Let's move along to more silliness.
$91,000 by 2020
If you are a Bitcoin true believer you will find this absurd story to your liking: If this chart is correct, it puts the price of bitcoin at $91,000 by 2020.
Tom Lee, managing partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said the big picture still has bitcoin BTCUSD, the No. 1 digital currency, in a bull phase. That’s even after a 40% decline from the start of 2018, and a 70% fall from its all-time high in December 2017, he said in a note to clients.
Lee compared the 70% decline to that of mid-2013, a retreat that was followed by a 700-plus day rally of more than 55,000%.
I admit that $91,000 is in the realm of possibilities, but so is zero.
At $91,000 how much energy will be sucked out of the grid? And at $1,000,000?
Don't Fight the FUD
The Bitcoin Vocabulary has some interesting terms.
The term HODL was accidentally coined in a 2013 Reddit post where an inebriated user (according to the post) was ranting during a bitcoin selloff, trying to explain why he wasn’t selling and instead was holding, or as mistyped: hodling.
The post was headlined “I AM HODLING” and began “I type d that tyitle twice because I knew it was wrong the first time. Still wrong.”
While it began as a joke, the term is now a staple among the bitcoin community, especially the bulls, who are more likely to HODL than sell.
This term has been adopted from videogaming where it refers to being wiped out or destroyed. This usually happens when the price of bitcoin plummets and investors lose a significant amount of money.
If you are new to the above terms you are a “noob” or a newbie who doesn’t have a comprehensive knowledge of the crazy world of cryptocurrencies.
Satoshi Nakamoto is the brain(s) behind bitcoin. This publisher of a bitcoin white paper in 2008 is rumored to be a Japanese male in his mid-40s. But throughout the years, many people have claimed to be, or know, Satoshi. Popular theories include U.S. computer scientist Nick Szabo and Australian businessman Craig Steven Wright.
Additionally, a “Satoshi” is the smallest unit of bitcoin—0.00000001 BTC.
FUD is not a bitcoin term. It stands for Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt. The term has been around for a decades.
The true believers accuse anyone who writes about Bitcoin in a non-positive manner of spreading FUD.
I was a target the other day. "Please keep spreading the FUD. I would love to pick it up at lower prices."
Rest assured, nothing I write will change the price of Bitcoin by one penny.
In general, the biggest spreaders of FUD are those who claim to know where the price is headed. I do not claim to know anything, but I do have a strong belief it's in a bubble.
Companies hopping on the bandwagon and grandmas buying at $19,000 provides strong evidence as to how big the bubble got.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock