The latest revision sets jobs at -4,000 in August from initial report of +22,000.
The BLS has negative revisions eight consecutive months and 26 out of the last 32 months.
With revisions, the month-over-month employment was -13,000 in June and -4,000 in August.
September Jobs Up 119,000 Unemployment Rises to 4.4 Percent
Please consider the guaranteed-to-be-revised report September Jobs Up 119,000 Unemployment Rises to 4.4 Percent
Initial Thoughts
All year, I kept asking “Does anyone believe these reports?”
In July the BLS said oops. Employment in May and June was a combined 258,000 lower than previously reported (now revised lower again).
In August, the BLS said oops again. The BLS reported negative job growth for June.
The revision hit parade continues in September. July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000.
There is no reason to believe this report either. But let’s discuss it anyway.
….
Revised When?
The BLS cancelled the October report because the Household Data was not collected and cannot be retroactively collected.
The BLS will extends the collection period for the November 2025 data and extra processing time will be added.
The November release was scheduled for December 5 but has been rescheduled for Tuesday, December 16, 2025.
ADP Pulse
Onn November 14, I noted ADP Pulse of Net Private Job Creation Drops to Negative 11,250 Per Week
How fast is the economy shedding jobs?
My assessment is fast. Especially small businesses that I believe are under-sampled.
Importantly, consider the pulse of -11,250 (-45,000) as a revised estimate of ADP’s +42,000 for October.
In light of the above, it is ludicrous to believe full-time employment rose by 655,000 in September. But that is what the BLS astonishingly reports!
Click on the above link for ADP, Revelio, and Challenger reports. Jobs are sinking fast.
Finally, the next FOMC meeting is December 10. The Fed will not have October or November data for the meeting.
The reporting delay increases the likelihood the Fed pauses at the December meeting.
For discussion, please consider FOMC Minutes Show Inflation Concerns, Fed Rate Cut Odds Plunge
Not a good trend- though their methodology up front obvious calls into question anything they put out period. Still, where there is smoke, and there has been smoke now for a long time, there is fire. Just further illuminates both the difficulty in getting good numbers but also the probably volatility of our job market and the decisions and reactions individual job seekers/holders are making.
Look at ADP job growth which has been declining since around January 2022. It seemed evident that Birdbrain Biden regime was cooking the books.
Enough economists were part of the Democrat administrative state and refused to call a recession in 2022 so that the midterms were only about abortion.
Mish, just wondering, since the BLS jobs data is so readily available, why don’t you go back & make comparisons to Trump’s 3 full years? Here’ I’ll do it for you.
2017 only saw 6 out of 12 monthly negative revisions
2018 only saw 4 out of 12 monthly negative revisions
2019 only saw 5 out of 12 monthly negative revisions
That’s only 15 out of the 36 months under which the Trump administration had control over the government for the full year.
2024 was definitely a bad year for the BLS, but it was an election year with the worst candidate for president ever.
I don’t think it’s an issue of under sampling SMEs. The issue is that the economic environment has been unusually tough for SMEs over the last 2-3 years, and it’s the large enterprises that report earlier in the BLS survey. For now, a good assumption is the first estimate tends to overestimate. Let’s just correct the first estimate by the average downward revision over the last 32 months, and you have an improved estimate.
Jobs are down and yet in Charlotte it seems construction sites are all empty and nothing is getting done. Hmm…why aren’t all those American citizens running to fill the void?
https://www.charlottealertsnews.com/news/construction-sites-empty-across-charlotte-due-to-fear-of-ice-raids/
Those construction sites usually all have loans with the “meter running” on interest and debt. The longer the delay, the likelihood the bank pulls funding or the firm building the site goes bankrupt. Only in Trump’s MAGA!
Supply
Demand
PRICE!
Interesting, in Raleigh we have no such issue. All sorts of construction sites and one of jobs both residential and commercial getting done. Like all things, I think this really depends on where you are at and as powerful as you may want to make ICE out to be, they are still from the “government” and they simply are never going to be that good at what they are supposed to be doing simply because of that.
See?
September Jobs Up 119,000 Unemployment Rises to 4.4 Percent
Fake news creator, Biden appointed statistician has been fired.
Employment and jobs have specific meanings. A person can hold multiple jobs. You don’t understand the reports.
Time to get a farming job.
It’s become a gig economy.
Is there a distinction in these numbers between jobs to illegals vs. jobs to citizens?
It’s yet another reason (in addition to the typical reasons) I never trust unemployment reports.
“RUBBER-MENT NUMBERS.”
I think your statement that small businesses are undercounted is probably far too true.
I believe it has already been established that tariffs hurt small businesses the most. This would create a disproportional impact on those companies who are least likely to be represented in the stock market.
With the unemployment rate going up, it’s hard to imagine that correlation to a positive Job Growth. It’s either very fancy math or I anticipate revisions, provided revisions are allowed.
Lies, damned lies and government “sadistics.”
However, what about chart statistics like this one? https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/native-born-workers-rise-2-million-under-trump-new-record-high-foreign-born-plunge-16
Oh man an anonymous (read: too chickenshit to say this with backing) “author” with ass pull statistics that don’t appear to have a source. What about it? More like what a hoot!
The only thing for sure is this website is Elon s Musk main source of information
Yeah. How many illegals are answering the phone talking to the BLS?
It’s all distorted
Well having grown up, albeit a long time ago in the ancient 1980’s in a town with at least 35% illegal migrant workers, some of the things they would do, and still do as I see them around me in Raleigh might surprise you. You want to talk about a crew that comes out big time for the 4th of July, and always have, it is that crew. They know a much more awful and deplorable reality from whence they came. We need to find a way to make the process of making them legal better. We also need to do some other things as it relates to dealing with the leaders of the countries they come from.