Preliminary Annual Revision

The BLS Preliminary Annual Revision shows that the Jobs total for March 2020 is about 173,000 jobs too high.

Preliminary benchmark revisions are calculated only for the month of March 2020 for the major industry sectors. The existing employment series are not updated with the release of the preliminary benchmark estimate. The data for all CES series will be updated when the final benchmark revision is issued.

The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) is researching potential improvements to their imputation methodology. If implemented, these changes may result in larger than usual revisions to QCEW estimates for the first quarter of 2020. 

Light of Day

As noted above, we will not see these overstatements corrected until February of 2021.

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173,000 is a normal error. That's about 14,400 a month.

Pre-Covid

These estimates are pre-covid and the methodology might change adding more to the total.

The BLS revision for Covid rates to be a doozie. 

But we won't find out about that until February of 2022 although a preliminary report we be out in about a year.

Mish

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