Bond yields were already in steep decline today on ISM news. Trump goosed the market with additional tariffs on China.

Image placeholder title

Fed Gets Unwanted Reaction

The Fed cut interest rates yesterday in hopes of steepening the yield curve. I noted Fed Gets Opposite Response It Wanted: Inversions Strengthen


Inversions continued to strengthen today on Manufacturing reports: ISM and Markit PMI On Verge of Contraction.

Even before Trump's tariff announcement, I commented that "I Expect Contraction Next Month." Click on the link for my reasons.

A global manufacturing recession has already started. Trump's unwise move increases the odds of an economic recession soon, assuming it has not already started.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

30-Year Bond Yield Just a Hair from Record Low, 2-10 Yield Spread Near Inversion

Bond yields resumed their post-FOMC crash today after a weak two-day respite. Inversions strengthened across the board.

Bond Yields Dive on Apple Warning, ISM Report

Yields took another dive lower today with the 1-year to 7-year inversion still intact.

Fed Gets Opposite Response It Wanted: Inversions Strengthen

Counting the FF Rate, the yield curve flattened quite a bit but inversions between 3-month and long end widened.

Historic Crash in Bond Yields and More Coming

Bonds yields crashed this week. The Fed made emergency inter-meeting cuts last week but that is just the start.

Bond Yields Crash and Gold Soars on Pandemic Threat

The 30-year long bond yield crashed to a record low, gold jumped, and equities hammered as fears of a pandemic mount.

Number of Yield Curve Inversion Points Rises as the Long-Bond Yield Dives

The US Treasury 5-year yield is now inverted with 3, 2, and even the 1-year treasury yield.

Global Manufacturing Recession Started: Trump's China Tariffs Made Matters Worse

A global manufacturing recession is now a certainty. Trump just made matters worse with a new 10% tariff hike on China.

Yield Curve Inversion Coming Up?

Several readers asked me to comment on the possibility of a yield curve inversion.

Flattening of the Yield Curve in Pictures; Is an Inversion Necessary to Signal a Recession?

Curve watchers Anonymous has an eye on the yield curve. Here is a snapshot of year-end-closing values from 1998-12-31 through 2015-12-31.