Longer-dated US Treasury notes and bonds have become nothing more than gambling tokens.
I can’t imagine ANYONE buying at auction with the intention of holding to maturity.
As per the old Wall Street joke, they are simply “Trading sardines”.
KidHorn
2 years ago
I think we’ll have deflation in things that are mass produced and inflation in things that aren’t.
ed_retired_actuary
2 years ago
One recent and current driver of demand for bonds is from corporate defined benefit (DB) pension plans that have become fully funded (or nearly so) as a result of the large rise in prices of their public stock and private equity investments. This allows them to de-risk their portfolio by matching long term liabilities by switching their investments to mostly investment grade long-term bonds, removing an unwanted source of balance sheet fluctuation. This demand will diminish over time, as few US DB corporate pension plans remain open to active employees.
A similar source of recent and current bond demand is from investors or balanced funds of target date funds which regularly rebalance to a target stock/bond % mix, selling stocks and buying bonds when stock prices rise faster than bond prices.
These sources of demand operate even when inflation invested yields are near 0 or negative.
shamrock
2 years ago
I bet the inflation expectations are set along party lines, the right wing “media” has been pushing the “inflation is out of control” narrative hard as part of the larger “country in crises under Biden” narrative.
anoop
2 years ago
kind of funny that if i scroll below the comments, i see this post.
it’s now 3.5 years and if you didn’t buy then because things were high, you’re definitely priced out now.
all that the bond market is signaling now is that real yields are even more negative. the message is that if you care about your money put it in stonks or real estate.
Yep, Mish’s worst calls have been on stocks and real estate. Horrendous. Gold is next at not too good. He has been right about inflation, or lack thereof.
I called the top on the nose and the bottom on the nose as well. All documented.
For a number of years I said housing was in a bubble and it has kept going. Gold I timed very well. My buy signals have been very good, but I never mentioned sell signals. Stocks poorly and I have stated so many times.
Gold is down about 4% since you made that buy call.
Webej
2 years ago
1. Mish, could it be that bond demand has other drivers than an opinion about inflation?
Bonds often seem to move differently than people predict and often surprise paradoxically: It could be that bond demand is not so much driven by more astute economic actors and observers, but perhaps the acuity of the bond market is driven by factors other than views & opinions.
2. Inflation expectations probably conflate experienced inflation with CPI, and are not an objective estimation of future CPI, but are influenced by subjective price inflation experience. I know that there have been many experiments in which people buy a basket of goods/services (grocery basket, night out + hotel, dinner + film, and other scenarios) exactly the same as 1, 2 or 5 years ago, and the actual bill receipts usually show a different picture than government statistics, even when the items are exactly matched (which is of course not always possible).
blacklisted
2 years ago
If the world’s population rapidly declines by 200 million people over the next year, would that be deflationary? Almost 2 billion people have been jabbed, and 10% could die or be disabled once they are exposed again.
And maybe monkeys will fly out of my butt. Would that be deflationary?
Very good news from Israel on the Delta variant. Lots of people (some vaccinated) are catching the Delta variant. But far fewer people are getting seriously ill.
I own a small business and I can see huge upward pressure on wages, especially at the low end.
Almost every owner that I know of has increased prices this month or last month by 10% or more.
Minimum wage has gone up consirecably in our area recently as well.
I believe this will have a lasting effect on service prices, food, rents etc as a second level effect and it will not be transient.
The minimum wage population spends every penny they earn and then some.
Eddie_T
2 years ago
Did some EU bond rates fall today? Anybody know?
ThaomasH
2 years ago
“If expectations mattered, why did the CPI and PCE stay below 2% so long? ”
Because the Fed was not willing to do enough to move them higher. Except in the very short run, inflation is what the Fed wants it to be.
Intelligentyetidiot
2 years ago
Please Mish, don’t report low yields as some market driven event.
Yields on US treasuries will be whatever the Fed wants them to be.
There is zero price discovery with Fed buying majority of issues.
Overtime the treasuries market will look exactly as Japanese bond market where there are days not a single bond trades as BoJ owns every thing.
Fed will end up owning all government bonds and some more.
“By lowering cost of capital directly for government borrowing (and banks, their captive market), they are engaging in de facto de-privatization of the economy. They force-feed gov’t and starve private entities.” Vernon Smith (Nobel 2002)
Michael Droy
2 years ago
Oil price stories were always a bit silly.
When WTI futures were trading negative a year ago, Dec 2022 futures never got below $36. When they peaked at 76 this morning, Dec 2022 was at $64.
The last $30 of the rally has been short term squeeze with little impact on long term pricing.
Stay Informed
Subscribe to MishTalk
You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.
Because the Fed was not willing to do enough to move them higher. Except in the very short run, inflation is what the Fed wants it to be.
When they peaked at 76 this morning, Dec 2022 was at $64.
The last $30 of the rally has been short term squeeze with little impact on long term pricing.